My 2014 Oscar Predictions.

[FAST FRED]

The "Best" in each category is where I predict the Oscar will go.

"My Second Place" is where I expect the Oscar will go, if my prediction of the winner is wrong.

"My Dark Horse" is a nominee that I think is genuinely worthy, but I'd be surprised to see the Academy vote the Oscar that way.

"My Personal Favorite" is the movie or performance which I personally liked best of all those nominated in that category this year.

So here goes:




Best Picture: I believe "12 Years a Slave" wins.

My Second Place: "Gravity."

My Dark Horse: "Her."

My Personal Favorites of the Academy's Best Picture nominees in descending order:

"Her."
"Gravity."
"The Wolf of Wall Street."
"Captain Phillips."
"Dallas Buyers Club."
"American Hustle"
"Nebraska."
"12 Years a Slave."
"Philomena"

JMO; I thought "Roots" was so much better than "12 Years a Slave." I know, apples and oranges.




Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron wins for "Gravity."

My Second Place: Steve McQueen for "12 Years a Slave."

My Dark Horse: Spike Jonze for "Her."

My Personal Favorite: Spike Jonze for "Her."




Best Leading Actor: Matthew McConaughey wins for "Dallas Buyers Club."

My Second Place: Chiwetel Ejiofor for "12 Years a Slave."

My Dark Horse:Leonardo DiCaprio for "The Wolf of Wall Street."

My Personal Favorite: Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club."




Best Leading Actress: Cate Blanchette wins for "Blue Jasmine."

My Second Place: Amy Adams for "American Hustle."

My Dark Horse: Meryl Streep for "August: Osage County" or Sandra Bullock for "Gravity."

My Personal Favorite: Cate Blanchette for "Blue Jasmine."




Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto wins for "Dallas Buyers Club."

My Second Place: Jonah Hill for "The Wolf of Wall Street."

My Dark Horse: Barkhard Abdi for "Captain Phillip." or Michael Fassbender for "12 Years a Slave."

My Personal Favorite: Jared Leto for "Dallas Buyers Club."




Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o wins for "12 Years a Slave."

My Second Place: Jennifer Lawrence for "American Hustle."

My Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins for "Blue Jasmine."

My Personal Favorite: June Squibb for "Nebraska."


Those are the six "main" Oscar categories.



I'll also guess that these "minor" category nominees will be winners:

My personal favorites are also my predicted winners unless noted.

Animated Feature Film: I think "Frozen" wins..

Production Design: "The Great Gatsby" wins.
"Gravity" is my second place.
"Her" is my dark horse.
"Gravity" is my personal favorite.

Costume Design: "The Great Gatsby" wins.
"12 Years a Slave." is my second place.

Cinematography: "Gravity" wins.
"Prisoners" is my second place.
"Nebraska" is my dark horse.

Visual Effects: "Gravity" wins

Film Editing: "Gravity" wins.
"12 Years a Slave" is my second place.

Makeup and Hairstyling: "Dallas Buyers Club" wins.

Music (Original Score): "Gravity" wins.
"Her" is my second place.
"The Book Thief" or "Saving Mr. Banks" is my dark horse.

Music (Original Song): "Let It Go" from "Frozen" wins.
"The Moon Song" from "Her" is my second place.

Sound Editing: "Gravity" wins.
"Captain Phillips" is my second place.

Sound Mixing: "Gravity" wins.
"Captain Phillips" is my second place.
"Inside Llewyn Davis" is my dark horse.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): "12 Years a Slave" wins.
"The Wolf of Wall Street" is my second place.
"Before Midnight" is my dark horse.
"The Wolf of Wall Street" is my personal favorite.

Writing (Original Screenplay): "Her" wins.
"American Hustle" is my second place.
"Blue Jasmine" is my dark horse.


I've seen all of the nominees in each of the first 6 "main" categories and each of the winners I've chosen (and many of the other nominees) in the "minor" categories I've predicted.

I didn't see any of the Foreign Films, Documentaries or Short Films up for awards this year, so I've abstained in those categories.

I might change some of these predictions and would then edit this post to reflect that before the awards ceremony.

We'll see how it goes on March 2nd.

Your thoughts?

 

[Golden Steer]

Good analysis Fred, but completely off the mark.

The Oscars aren’t given out for merit, or because one movie is better than the other. Most voters haven’t watched what they’re voting on anyway. It’s all about what advances the Hollywood narrative.

That’s why clunkers like Farenheight 4000 and a video of Al Gore giving a PowerPoint presentation win awards.

So this year, what will the narrative be? Blacks, and thus 12 Years a Slave? Sadly for them, they came out 2 years too late. If they’d had that movie in either the 2012 or 2013 awards, when it was All Obama All The Time, they’d have been a shoo-in. It would have fit the Hollywood narrative about how evil American and white people are, and you’re a dirty racist if you don’t vote for Obama.

But now it’s 2014, Obama told the 2013 Lie of the Year, and Hollywood is so over that failure. So onto a new narrative, one closer to their heart: All Gay All The Time!

The Grammy’s, the award show that gave a trophy to Mili Vanili, and the B-Sharps (which Homer tried unsuccessfully to trade for a bottle of booze), just had an All Gay All The Time show, with a bunch of dudes getting married on stage.

Do you think the Oscars are going to let themselves get upstaged by that? And for what, some warmed over Kunta Kinte story? I think not. And especially with Ellen DeGeneres hosting – gay host giving out awards to gay movie, with lots of hugs and crying. It’s cheap, it’s predictable, it’s Hollywood.

Dallas Buyer Club will win every award they have a nominee in. They may even win in categories they weren’t nominated in – why let that stop the night’s celebration of the narrative?

So movie, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, all to Dallas Buyers club.

Gravity for director, Amy Adams for actress – time for a new fresh face to pump up fan interest, and get them to see her in some upcoming movie that otherwise would bomb.

12 Years a Slave gal for supporting actress, so as not to snub them out completely, and a couple of other minor awards for them too.

 

[texas_ex2000]

Golden Steer,

Not that I don't think social movements of the month seem to drive green lighting Hollywood productions, but the Academy Awards isn't as trapped by that as we may perceive.

While they like movies with a social message, preferably a liberal leaning but uncontroversial one, the Academy will always typically go for quality big studio fare.

And here the thing too, while not my favorite (Gravity), Dallas Buyer Club is a completely deserving movie for Best Picture/Actor/Supporting Actor/Screenplay. It's actually a very conventional story/movie.

My favorite is Gravity, the best movie I've seen probably in the last 5 years. I love it because in spite of the amazing visual effects, it feels like an intimate 1 (wo)man play on Broadway. The you add the visuals...absolutely beautiful. Sandra Bullock's best work, and she was great in The Blind Side.

My other picks:

Best Director - Cuaron/Gravity
Actor - MM/DBC
Actress - Tie: Bullock/Gravity & Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
Supporting Actor - JL/DBC
Supporting Actress - Hawkings/Blue Jasmine
Animated - The Wind Rises
Cinematography - Gravity
Costume - Gatsby
Documentary - Haven't seen any nominees
Doc Short - Haven't seen any nominees
Editing - Captain Phillips
Foreign Language - Haven't seen any nominees
Makeup/Hair - DBC
Music - Her
Song - Pharrell Williams/Despicable Me 2
Production Design - 12 Years A Slave
Short Film Animated - Haven't seen any nominees
Short Film Live - Haven't seen any nominees
Sound - Gravity
Sound Mixing - Gravity
Visual Effects - Gravity
Adapted Screenplay - Captain Phillips (really close with 12 Years A Slave)
Original Screenplay - Blue Jasmine

My favorite movies this year in descending order:
Gravity
Place Beyond The Pines (not nominated for anything)
Dallas Buyer's Club
Blue Jasmine
Her
Captain Phillips
All Is Lost
Lone Survivor

 

[Hu_Fan]

Golden Steer just outlined my complete take on mainstream American culture. Nailed it to a T.

 

[CanaTigers]

I'm looking forward to McConaughey's acceptance speech. That is enough reason for me to actually watch it this year.

 

[Mesohorny]

I've seen all of the "big" categories except Philomena. Listed in order of my preference, favorite on top; predicted winner below those.

Best picture:
Gravity
American Hustle
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Philomena (not seen)

Winner: 12 Years A Slave


Actor:
Matthew M.
Bruce Dern
Christian Bale
DiCaprio and Ejiofor tied

Winner: MM


Actress:
Sandra Bullock
Cate Blanchett
Meryll Streep
Amy Adams
Judi Dench (not seen)

Winner: Cate Blanchett


Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto
Jonah Hill
Fassbender
Bradley Cooper
B Abdi

Winner: Leto


Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence
June Squibb
Lupita Nyong'o
Meryl Streep
Sally Hawkins

Winner: Lupita Nyong'o


Director:
Curaron / Gravity
David O. Russell / American Hustle
Alexander Payne / Nebraska
Steve McQueen / 12 Years
Scorsese / Wolf of Wall St.

Winner: Steve McQueen


Cinematography:
Gravity
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoner
The Grandmaster (not seen)

Winner: Gravity


Costume:
Fave: American Hustle
Winner: 12 Years

Editing:
Fave: Gravity
Winner: Gravity

Makeup:
Fave Dallas Buyers club
Winner: Dallas Buyers club

Original Score:
Fave: Her
Winner: Her

Production Design:
Fave: Gravity
Winner: The Great Gatsby

Sound Editing:
Fave: Gravity
Winner: Gravity

Sound Mixing:
Fave: Gravity
Winner: Gravity

Visual Effects:
Fave: Gravity
Winner Gravity

Adapted Screenplay:
Fave: 12 Years
Winner: 12 Years

Original Screenplay:
Fave: American Hustle
Winner: American Hustle

Lots of strong nominees in all the major categories. 2013 was a very good year.

 

[LonghornCatholic]

I haven't watched the Oscar's, Grammy's, or any other awards show in about 15 years.
Didn't think people still had interest, but they were fun to watch when I cared.

 

[texas_ex2000]

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[Third Coast]

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[FAST FRED]

19 out of 19 predictions right.

Lucky me!!

 

[Hu_Fan]

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[Mesohorny]

Don't be so humble, Fred. You weren't lucky; you know film.
Always enjoy reading your critiques.

 

[chango]

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[dillohorn]

God bless Matthew McC!

 

[texas_ex2000]

Matthew's career is starting to remind me of Paul Newman's. Comparing someone to Newman is as big a compliment I can give to a man.

He also joins Marcia Gay Harden and Rene Zellweger in the Texas Ex Academy Award Winner Actor/Actress fraternity

Murray Abraham, who attended UT but didn't graduate, also won the Academy Award for best Actor for Amadeus in 1984.

Yale, you better watch your back.

 

[J D the Obscure]

And look for McConaughey to win an Emmy this year for "True Detective".

 

[Dionysus]

We watched Nebraska last night but about halfway through I had to bail out because I found it to be a huge turd.

 

[Clean]

Interesting picture Hu Fan.

I'll have to find a version online that has the people's names large enough and clear enough to read.

 

[Golden Steer]

I got 4 of 7 right, without seeing a single movie.

Now chango gets a 0 out of 0, as chicken shits don't make predictions.

I was quite surprised the AA wasn't a Narrative night, and thus while the Grammys had dudes getting married on stage, the Academy Awards had delivered pizza. Strange.

Did see Gravity on a plane flight. On the small screen, any visual effects didn't come through, and you were left with the foolisness of their orbital mechanics. Might as well had a movie where people jumped from plane to plane.