My 2010 Oscar Predictions.......

[FAST FRED]

.........in six main categories:

The first listing in each category is who I believe the Oscar will go to.

"My Favorite" is the movie or performance I personally liked best of those nominated in each category this year.

If no "My Favorite" is listed, I personally favor the nominee that I've predicted to win.

"My Second Place" is who I expect the Oscar will go to, if my prediction for the winner is wrong.

"Dark Horse" is a nominee that I think is worthy, but I would be quite surprised should the Academy vote that way.




Best Picture: "Avatar" will win.

My Favorite: "Up in the Air."




Best Directing: James Cameron will win for "Avatar."

My Favorite: Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air."

Dark Horse: Lee Daniel for "Precious."




Best Leading Actor: Jeff Bridges will win for "Crazy Heart."

My Second Place: George Clooney for "Up in the Air."

Dark Horse: Colin Firth for "A Single Man."




Best Leading Actress: Sandra Bullock will win for "The Blind Side."

Dark Horse: Carey Mulligan for "An Education."




Best Supporting Actor: Cristolph Waltz will win for "Inglourious Basterds."




Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique will win for "Precious."

Dark Horse: Penelope Cruz for "Nine."



I've seen all the nominees in these six categories and posted reviews of most of the movies involved.

We'll see in a few days how the Academy votes.

 

[FAST FRED]

I'm not sure how Academy voters, young and old and with various opinions about what constitutes excellence in movie making achievement, past, present and future, will feel about "Avatar."

As I understand it, only directors can vote for "Best Director," while everyone in the whole Academy (including actors, directors, screenwriters, costumers, make up artists and technical people) will vote on "Best Picture."

Cameron has aready won for a "flawed" blockbuster with "Titanic," so what will his fellow directors think this year?

Was "Avatar" a great leap forward to be unifornly embraced by artists and craftspeople in movieland or is it an unwelcome threat to the way they earn their livings?

And it's a secret vote.

Also each "Best Picture" voter ranks all the nominees 10 thru 1 (most deserving to least deserving) with the highest total from all ballots determining the winner.

I think "Avatar" will be ranked in the top two or three by most voters and thus tally up the highest score.

I'm more sure in my mind about the acting awards.

Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock are both deserving and due, with Bullock doing probably her most awardable acting yet in "The Blind Side" and also receiving appreciation for her recent gracious introduction of Betty White at an earlier awards presentation and her equally well-received acceptance of the friendly barbs that White threw her way when Betty had the podium.

I thought Gabourey Sidibe seemed so very well cast that her acting achievement may not be deemed Oscar worthy for "Precious."

I thought Mo'Nique's supporting acting was more striking and memorable in that film, much as I thought Bullock out-performed Quinton Aaron (who was similarly well-cast) in "The Blind Side."

Meryl Streep is always so good and certainly nailed Julia Child.

But so did Dan Akroyd, comically, on TV's SNL and I think Meryl, though excellent as Julia, didn't outshine Bullock, who carried her movie to greater heights.

I thought Jason Reitman delivered "Up in the Air" without a misstep, while James Cameron may have overcome any storyline deficit in "Avatar" with overall excellence in entertaiment and innovation.

We'll see.

Your thoughts?

 

[LITNIN HORN]

My only thought is...if Avatar wins Best Picture, I will never pay attention to the Academy Awards again.

 

[FAST FRED]

 

[CanaTigers]

Avatar will probably win a few but not in the major categories

 

[Wild Bill]

i think Avatar is going to clean up, although I wouldn't vote for it for more than 3-4 Oscars. But alas, I didn't get a ballot. I think they forgot me.

 

[nych 1]

Can anyone really say that Avatar has as 'great" plot/storyline/character development? I don't think the Best Picture Oscar should go to a movie that has just great special effects; that what the technical awards are for.

Fast Fred, by chance did you go to the Arbor 8 in N. Austin? I think most of the movies you reviewed are playing there.

 

[FAST FRED]

My wife and I watched four of the movies there on a recent Wednesday.

 

[FAST FRED]

4 right out of 6 predictions made.

/

As the telecast ensued, I could foresee how Kathryn Bigelow might win Best Director after the Best Original Screenplay Oscar went to "The Hurt Locker."

I just wasn't that impressed by that screenplay or the movie.

Different strokes.

I hope all the folks who see "The Hurt Locker" now, since it's won Best Picture, will enjoy it more than I did, while continuing to respect and support our troops as I do.

My crazy heart and precious head were blind sided up against "The Hurt Locker," when it won at the last two award stations, giving this single, serious man an up in the air education about how "Avatar" was vulnerable, as shown by the vote tally from those inglourious Hollywood basterds, rather than being unconquerable or, as you could say in Latin, "invictus."

Interesting that the lowest grossing Best Picture winner ever (so far) prevailed over the highest grossing motion picture of all time.

I thought the visual innovation and cinematic imagination of James Cameron might overcome his movie's shortcomings against a watered down field of 10 Best Picture nominees in a movie year that was, IMO at best, only average in excellence.

In the four acting categories, I thought there were plenty of up to snuff, deserving and due candidates and got those right.

Your thoughts?

 

[Horns2005]

If in 10 years, they're re-making a 3D version of Pride and Prejudice or Romeo and Juliet, then you can make a case that Avatar was robbed.

Otherwise, this year was a big ol' case of meh from the "Oscar-worthy" films. Of the movies I saw this year, only Up and Avatar seemed really notable, and even then, only if those two movies create a dramatic effect in the way movies are filmed. Hurt Locker was intense... but nothing really memorable. I thought if anything, it was more heavy-handed than most war films. I don't get it.