Michael Bourn:

Most people don't even know who Mario Mendoza was, so in order to bring the term into the 21st century, I motion that we officially change the term to "The Bourne Line."

If a player is hitting less than .100 and is actually still in the majors, it shall now be said that he is hovering around "The Cheito Line."
 
Jose Cruz Sr perfected the art of beating out a high chop though the middle of the infield. We used to laugh about it and even called him "chop chop." He pounded the ball into the dirt somewhere between home plate and the pitcher and simply outran the high bounce. He might do this at anytime, but he always did it if he was in a slump as a way just to get on base.

Maybe Cruz was aided by the hard Dome infield (there was concrete underneath the dirt) but he also had decent bat control and could make contact. Bourn's main problem right now at bat seems to be the inability to make contact. He whiffs too much. If he ever learns bat control, he could be a .300 hitter on bunts and infield hits alone. And with his speed and the hitters he has behind him, he and Kaz could be a modern version of Dykstra-Beckman.

This offense has been going great for a few weeks now, but it would be even better if the top of the lineup guys got on base more. Facing Berkman is tough for any pitcher now, but it would be even worse with Bourne already on base, something that does not happen enough.

I dont know how long they will keep trotting him out there if he stays below the Mendoza line. It hurts. Does his defense make up for that? Erstad was a pretty good spark plug himself when he was playing every day. Is what you gain worth what you lose? The answer would seem to be situational.
 
I guess.

But with Towles' production so far, it almost like having Everett, Ausmus and a pitcher at the bottom again (with a few more homers thrown in).
 
Bourn's bat looked a lot better today, though. A couple of really solid shots to the outfield. One of 'em was a sure double if Kemp hadn't made a great catch. The key for Bourn is to calm down and stop making every pitch a matter of life and death. It's causing him to do what Pence did early on: swing at everything, bad and good.

Towles' problem is pitch recognition. He seems calm enough but he tends to get fooled on cutters and stuff that drop.
 
Bourn is a way better fielder and base stealer than Taveras so I don't mind the .200 BA yet. He will also double Willy's career high walk output this year. Bourn's plate discipline makes me think he will be fine and become an adequate hitter given the rest of his tools. He may never get it at the plate but for sure Willy was never going to get it.

I am more worried about Towles.
 
The problem with Bourn is that he is already 26 years old and hit between .269 and .283 at AA or AAA. So I don't see much hope that he is going to become a great hitter.

I like the guy because I think he plays hard. But I don't think his upside is as great as the Astros management would have you believe.

His highest SB ever was at the A ball level when he stole 57 bases. He is going to have to learn to take a walk if he is going to be an effective lead off hitter. Historically he has had twice as many strikeouts as he has had walks.

Hook em
 
Bourn is only 25 and has very few ABs in the majors. If he can get 60 walks as he is projected to and get his BA to about 270, that is more than enough for the rest of his tools. He should easily get 60 SB this season and could hit 10 HR (on pace for 14) while playing a great CF.
 
We are so hot right now it is ridiculous. When we started this road trip I was hoping for 6-4. Well we start it 4-0. WOW. Berkman is crazy hot right now. No one can get anything by him. Even when he gets out he kills it.

Tejada & Berkman are fun to watch hit beside each other!
 
Berkman crushed that ball last night and he did it right handed on top of it. The Astros need to give Bourn plenty of time to figure things out. His defense and base running ability warrant it.
 
Its also nice to have Blum, Erstad, and Loretta come off the bench. Offensively this team is like no Astros squad I've ever seen.
 
1998 offense was crazy good and posted a full season of production that easily outpaces what has been done so far this year.

1998 led the league in scoring playing in the Astrodome. Posted a team OPS+ of 117. Averaged 5.33 runs per game on the road against a league road average (other teams only) of 4.43 runs per game. That's over 120% the league average.

So far this year the Astros have posted a team OPS+ of 101 and have scored 4.36 runs per game on the road against a league average of 4.42 runs per game. Almost, but not quite, 99% of league average.

And, yes, I know that the offense is just now "heating up" but it has a looooooooooooong way to go to match 1998.
 
THorne: You may be right on that but still a long way to go.

For now, I will stick with the 2000 offense -- 1547 hits, 249 HRs, 900 RBIs, 938 runs scored, 114 SBs, 673 BBs, .278 team average

The 2000 team is the only Astro team to ever score over 900 runs and only to ever have 900 RBIs. It was the all-time team HR leader (leading by over 40 over next closest team), the all-time total bases leader by almost 200, the all-time SLG % leader by over .20 and the all-time OBP leader. This team is also the all-time total at bats leader; had the most consecutive games with a HR (18); had the most road HRs (114 vs. 135 at home); had the most extra base hits (574).
9 Astros had 10 or more HRs
8 had over 100 hits
7 hit .297 or higher with at least 200 ABs

Bagwell .310 with 47 HRs, 132 RBIs, 152 Runs, 107 BBs, .424 OBA (led NL in runs scored, all-time team record, all-time Astros HR record, all-time total bases record, Career Highs in HRs, runs, hits)
Hidalgo .314 with 44 HRs, 122 RBIs, 42 2Bs, .636 SLG
Alou .355 with 30 and 114 (2nd best team BA all-time)
Berkman .297 with 21 and 68 in 114 games
Mitch Meluskey .300 with 14 and 69 in 117 games (most RBI by Astro catcher ever)
Tony Eusebio .280 (24-game hitting streak)
Caminiti .303 with 15 and 45 in just 59 games (he was knocking the holy crap out of the ball that year, until he wasnt)
Lugo .282 in 420 ABs, 22 SBs
Spiers .301 in 124 games
D Ward 20 HRs

I think the simple passage of time makes it easier to forget just how great Bagwell was. Look at his numbers again.

Crappy record though. This was the first year in Enron and some of the pitchers were wigging (Elarton was only starter with over 10 wins. Tim Bogar had 3rd lowest ERA on team!).

Going into this season, I was thinking about the 2000 team as a comparison but (thankfully) it looks like the pitching is going to hold up much better. Will be interesting to see how the 3-4-5 hitters end up comparing with that year's trio. In 2000, you had the meat of the order each hitting over .300 with a minimum of 30 HRs and 110 RBIs. Can Tejada, Berkman and Lee match that?

There are other factors that may make any comparison like this difficult -- such as -- a MLB-wide pitcher dearth, steroids and possibly the baseball itself. I am not sure how you adjust for those factors.


ps -- 1998 was the best overall team (and did have Carl Everett). But 2000 was the best hitting team
 
Hunter Pence has brought up his avg to about 290. This after so much fuss since he struggled at the beginning of the year.
 
I am really hoping Mike Bourn gets it turned around. IMO, he needs to be given to June 1st to turn it around, or at least get his average to say, .220. If not then Round Rock. My feeling is that it may hurt his career to keep running him out there. It may shake his confidence. We already have speed off the bench with Cruz jr anyway. He could maybe work out some kinks and build confidence in AAA.
That being said I am really pulling for him and hope he steals 8 bases this weekend in Arlington.
 
Well, okay. If we're just going to judge it on road home runs and Bagwell's season, then I guess you're right.

And using the 1998 playoff series against the Padres as evidence in favor of the 2000 offense is just silly. How did the 2000 team hit in their playoff series?

Both offenses were really good. I think the 1998 offense was better. You like to use raw totals and completely discount park effects. That's definitely one way to do it.

Too bad our 2000 offense was worse than Colorado's offense that year.
 
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