McCain vs. Dem's

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pevodog

1,000+ Posts
The Link

It is extremely early in the process, but McCains polls very well against the Dem's, in ayear that was supposed to be the dems to lose. Two things will help him (1) Hillary is devisive, he isn't.Independents will flock to him (2) Obama will look like a empty suit against him. Plus, their is strong polling data that suggest hispanics will not support a black person to be president.
 
mccain gives me heartburn on immigration and first amendment issues. but i think he might be the one candidate who can end the corrupt earmarks practice in washington. but he may have to talk over the heads of the party establishment directly to the voters in order to win the nomination.

hook'em
 
One of the biggest blights on McCain in the eyes of Independents and crossover voters will/would be him having a more hawkish long term Iraq war occupation stance than Bush. Awareness of this has hardly peaked, imo.

Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress in the 2006 midterms in what was largely a referendum on failed Bush Iraq policy and the rubber stampers in Congress who did nothing to curb it.

The gains seen from the surge beginning back in Oct are already starting to look shaky again and there still has been no real sign of political reconciliation.

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I had never thought of the issue with Hispanics supporting an African American for President, but I can see that point. I also do believe that either Hilary or Obama will have problems with McCain. He might just be a Dem killer in 2008
 
The Link

CLinton has a whopping 40% lead among hispanics in California. There is something going on with hispanics and Obama.

If Obama gets the nomination (doubtful) he would need very heavy hispanic support to have any chance. Single women+blacks+hispanics are the voters of the democratic party.
 
A McCain v. Obama race runs a significant risk of being civilized. We can't have that. The cable news channels wont have anything to talk about.

A race with Hillary will be as dirty as any in recent memory, no matter who she runs against.
 
Plus, their is strong polling data that suggest hispanics will not support a black person to be president.
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I have not seen any polling data on this issue. I think it is funny that some would expect honest issues on this point. however, although i do not have direct experience with hispanics, I do with latinos. I lived in South America for a while and I can say with confidence that there is no chance a black person could be elected to office in Argentina.
 
So using your logic and the data you posted, blacks won't vote for a white?

And you do realize the poll question is asking about preferences in the primary and not in the general election?
 
i think your understanding of the 2006 election is flawed. the democrat base was motivated by the iraq war, but while the republican base supported the war, they were demotivated by porkbarrel spending. if the republican congress had been worthy on the spending front, i think they would have been able to retain the majority.

hook'em
 
Curl - In 2006, the Democrats who beat incumbent Republicans did so with an anti-Iraq war platform. This was particularly so with the high profile Senate races. Believing it was due to an unenergized base on the pork front can't be dismissed out of hand, but the mythical permanent republican majority getting crushed had more to do with a misguided and unnecessary bloody war than pork.

Regarding Hispanics and Obama, this was big news 7 days ago: Obama gets major labor endorsement
In reply to:
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Obama poses more of a challenge to McCain because he presents a break with a past that McCain, for all his 'independence', still represents. Obama will be able to match McCain's support from indies, and their divide on the war in Iraq couldn't be clearer. I'd take Obama vs. McCain as a best-odds candidate any day.

Hillary will get stomped by McCain. She cannot claim either a generational change or a true political change, and she'd have to engage Johnny Mac on his turf - the middle.

a) For indies, it's way too easy a call to go with McCain over a shrill, condescending and corrupt sellout who turns their stomachs. Oddly enough, McCain could win the "change" vote vs. HRC

b) No worries about GOP turnout - if there's one person the hardcore Pubs hate more than McCain, it's Hillary. He'll sweep the South, easily win Florida and Ohio, and probably even take Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

She'll lose by 10 points. Interesting that as they've gone back and forth and flirted with various candidates with narrow appeal, the GOP voters seem to be capable of reading poll trends and coming around to their best bet, regardless of whether they really dig his politics. The Dem base seems utterly oblivious to the fact that Hillary is unelectable vs anyone with crossover appeal, and would appear ready to commit hari-kari in perhaps their most favorable cycle in decades.
 
I don't think Hillary can win the general election against anyone. She is showing her true colors in this catfight to win the dem nomination. If she wins the dem nomionation, most independents will be so turned off by that time, nobody will be able to stand the sight of her. Half the country already hates her and won't vote for her now. i really don't understand how anyone could vote for her.
 
There must be an intense and shifting battle going on as I type this between Obama and Clinton over the Latino vote. After seeing Obama beat Hillary in a 95% white Iowa primary, I have to think the winner of the Latino vote takes all. Somebody at dKos put up a pretty elaborate thread about Obama and the Latino community. Sounds like Latino leaders who were behind Richardson before he dropped out have now thrown their support behind Obama:The Link

Obama also up 19% over Hillary (43 to 24) in South Carolina as of this morning per Reuters/CSpan/Zogby.

I guess that pugilism in the SC debate the other night caused people to kind of forget about the misty-eyed caring NH image of Hillary.

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Nor did I mean to imply that they were, zzzz. Quite the opposite, in fact. In fact, I continue to be impressed by the way the GOP has continued to assess and re-assess it's candidates during this campaign season, particularly since they're not used to having a truly contentious nomination process like this one. And if McCain continues to grow on them, they will have proven once again that, ideological differences aside, they can recognize their current strengths and weaknesses and choose the most marketable candidate available.

The Democratic Party, OTOH, appears hell-bent on cutting off it's nose to spite it's face - at the behest of the McAuliffes and Shrums, no less.
 
Obama can beat McCain by producing an overwhelming turnout of Dems and those independents who oppose the war. He has already proved his ability to turnout new voters in substantial numbers. The Dem primaries are exceeding past turnout by extraordinary numbers while Repub turnout is off.

McCain will not be able to energize the Repub base. The three most popular local conservative talk radio hosts in the So Cal market have each called McCain a "traiter" for his support of his "Amnesty" bill, campaign finance reform, and his vote against the Bush tax cuts. Many national hosts like Limbaugh also dislike McCain.

Opposition to Obama will not be enough to energize the Repub base that McCain will not be able to energize. But of course if Hillary wins, all bets are off because she will energize the Repub base, and if she continues to run the type of campaign of “win at all costs”, she will not be able to energize the Dem base because her tactics are pissing off many Dems.

The selfishness of Bill of putting getting a blow job above his duty to his family, party and country played a major role in our loss in 2000. His selfishness to get his wife elected at any cost could cost us the election in 2008.
 
First off, I am not convinced McCain is going to win the Republican nomination, I just do not know if the Republican party is ready to turn its back on the Reagan coalition that has won them so many elections and go with a candidate that does not appeal to all of the special interests that make up that coalition. So, I think Romney is still in this race, especially with his own money that he has at his disposal. Huckabee and Giuliani cannot be counted out either, but their chances of winning are diminishing. McCain would be the best general election candidate with an R next to his name, but the establishment point of view is--what is the point of winning an election if the special interests that make up the party don't get their way.

I think it is important to contrast McCain and Obama, David Brooks did a good job of this a few weeks ago in a column. They both have independent appeal, but Obama is basically a straight down the line left of center Democrat. McCain, on the other hand, has actually taken positions that anger the establishment of his party and appeal to Democrats and independents.

The path to winning for Bill Clinton and George W. Bush was to adopt an issue that was perceived as a weakness of their party and then make this traditional weakness into a strength, while taking positions to satisfy their base on most of the other issues. Clinton did this with economic issues (like free trade) and Bush did this with education. Hillary Clinton has done this with foreign policy and military issues. Now, Bush's mismanagement of the Iraq War has made this strategy a little more difficult. However, Hillary has served on the Armed Services Committee and advocated for increased health care benefits for the National Guard, a modern GI Bill of Rights, and for a larger military.

For all of Obama's talk about reaching out to the other side and bringing Republicans and independents into the fold, his record does not really appeal across party lines. I think this is a product of not being in the Senate long enough to accomplish this feat. But still, in the general election his record will be examined, and it is basically a record of a traditional Democrat that has not been in the Senate very long.
 
His record won't be much of a factor, imo. His ability to frame the debate and point to a bigger picture, and his non-combative persona will be the driving forces of his campaign. McCain will certainly try to point up Obama's record, or lack thereof, but it's trifling stuff that will bore most swing voters and won't win the election for him. McCain will have to create a contrast with his own narrative - as a man of long-standing political courage; a man of conviction who has taken the heat and taken a stand even when it wasn't politically advantageous for him, etc...he has to posit himself as the 'sober' choice, who can credibly talk about change as well, etc.... Picking at Obama's legislative record would be a waste of his time, imo. The difference in their experience levels will be clear enough, and making too much hay out of it would bespeak an insecurity for McCain, much as it does with Hillary.
 
The interesting thing about McCain to me, as a Dem voter, is that while he is a scary match up, he is also the most palatable R candidate.

If elected I would expect him to "adjust" his stance on Iraq considerably. He just hasn't convinced me that he is truly as hawkish as he'd like the R base to believe.
 
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