Lil Jordan Humphries Waived by Saints

When I heard the announcement he was declaring for the draft, I was skeptical about him making a team, and that he should have come back for his senior season. he should prove he's the real deal and his junior year wasn't merely a fluke, then go to the pros. But, like so many, these guys have an agent, family and buddies talking them up as a top draft choice and signing for the big money. Then it doesn't happen or it does for lower bucks on a practice squad. At least he might get pulled up or another team may show interest.
 
Found this on NCAA page (see link below)

HS Participants to NCAA Participants in Football:

..............Total HS.........Total HS to.......% HS to
..............Participants ......to NCAA ..........NCAA ....Div I ... Div II .....Div III
Football..1,036,842.........73,557............7.1%.......2.8%....1.8%........2.5%

Total NCAA Participants to the Pros:

....................NCAA..........Approx. #........#Draft........#NCAA......% NCAA to
................Participants ....Draft Eligible ... Picks ....... Drafted ....the NFL
Football ....73,557............16,346...........256..............255...........1.6%

LINK: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/research/pro_beyond/2019RES_ProbabilityBeyondHSFiguresMethod.pdf

The probability for each kid coming from HS football and playing at the College level are slim, but those that did play College ball at some level have a 1.6% chance to be drafted. To include the free-agents maybe double the total percentage from 1.6% to 3.2 or maybe 3.5%. And not all of those will make the cut. The percentage chance of any given HS player playing in the NFL is about 0.05%
 
horninchicago said:
Maybe this will make players think twice about leaving early. It seems most who leave early are busts for the most part.
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I was watching, I think, the 2005 Kansas game. Nessler, I believe it was, noted that Mack Brown had never had a player leave early. VY was the first to do so. Imagine what could have been of the 2006 season, not to mention his draft prospects following a very likely Heisman and repeat NC winning season.

Instead, we know now he had a mediocre pro career and troubles otherwise. And, with apologies to @NOLATiger80for starting that with a conjunction, but not really though :p, I can't think of any others, Jamaal Charles being a possible exception, who have left early and had great success in the NFL.
 
Statalyzer said:
They made him resign?
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After they get cut, they essentially become a free agent. Teams often have hopes of resigning some of those cuts, but sometimes they go elsewhere (like with Doss in Oakland who Gruden wanted on the Practice Squad but who went to Jacksonville, on the practice squad).
 
horninchicago said:
I was watching, I think, the 2005 Kansas game. Nessler, I believe it was, noted that Mack Brown had never had a player leave early. VY was the first to do so. Imagine what could have been of the 2006 season, not to mention his draft prospects following a very likely Heisman and repeat NC winning season.

Instead, we know now he had a mediocre pro career and troubles otherwise. And, with apologies to @NOLATiger80for starting that with a conjunction, but not really though :p, I can't think of any others, Jamaal Charles being a possible exception, who have left early and had great success in the NFL.
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Well... VY went 30-17 at Tennessee, a better winning percentage than Andrew Luck, for example. He got drafted 3rd, so that wasn’t likely to rise. He certainly had his problems, but I don’t think an extra year at UT would have changed his game that much to make a difference in the NFL. Especially since his problems were later, not right off the bat.

I do think we likely would have won another title. That would have pleased me!
 
@VYFan, my point was he would have likely ended up somewhere other than Tennessee and may have had more success in terms of playoffs and/or championships. No fair minded person, 30-17 aside, would really say VY had a great NFL career.
 
horninchicago said:
I was watching, I think, the 2005 Kansas game. Nessler, I believe it was, noted that Mack Brown had never had a player leave early. VY was the first to do so. Imagine what could have been of the 2006 season, not to mention his draft prospects following a very likely Heisman and repeat NC winning season.

Instead, we know now he had a mediocre pro career and troubles otherwise. And, with apologies to @NOLATiger80for starting that with a conjunction, but not really though :p, I can't think of any others, Jamaal Charles being a possible exception, who have left early and had great success in the NFL.
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George Sauer for Royal and Earle Thomas for Mack both had success in the NFL as early leavers.
 
I don't think another year at UT does much for LJH.
Unless he learns a whole new position such as TE.
He wasn't going to get any faster.
His skill set is what it is.
 
horninchicago said:
@VYFan, my point was he would have likely ended up somewhere other than Tennessee and may have had more success in terms of playoffs and/or championships. No fair minded person, 30-17 aside, would really say VY had a great NFL career.
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I agree. As you may imagine, I love Vince. Flawed as he is.

With a different coach, he probably would have done a lot better. His personality issues made that target smaller (and perhaps his unique skill set), but Jeff Fischer was really not good for him.

As far as which year to come out, there was no way to predict that, though.
 
I guess I don't understand, besides speed apparently never increasing, why more experience at the college level doesn't help going to the NFL. But, maybe that's part of why the NFL product, in general, sucks.

Why not just draft them out of high school? Heck, what can be learned in college for a few years while risking injury? :rolleyes:
 
The only two early departure i can think of that were real successes were Thomas and Charles, Jefferson might end up working out but if you had told him he wasn't going to go in the first two rounds I am not sure he would have left early like he did.
 
FWHORN said:
The only two early departure i can think of that were real successes were Thomas and Charles, Jefferson might end up working out but if you had told him he wasn't going to go in the first two rounds I am not sure he would have left early like he did.
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Jermichael Finley
 
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