let's look at what's wrong with numbers, how 'bout?

glenn

1,000+ Posts
much has been made recently by a few regarding the slow time rivals has posted for mj mcfarland, while a look at his youtube highlights shows a kid who is definitely not sluggish. let's look at some results from the ultra-slow army combine and compare that to the rivals listings. my hope is to illustrate why posted numbers aren't thoroughly ignored as they pass 'in one of my ears and out the other', but close.

rivals attempts to develop a sense of validation--that some fools sometimes point to as utter truth from the mountain--by putting a little checkmark next to some of the data, symbolizing that the number comes from some sort of official event and is not coming from thin air. one of my goals here is to present the case that while checkmarked data should get a little more respect, i don't think it should be taken as golden.

below i present an amalgam view of some stats, first from the army combine and then from rivals, on some people we have interest in. i have no doubt that there are far better examples if one wants to invest the time to look for them, but these will do.

35866098.jpg


first i want to look at everybody's favorite 5-star candidate, desmond jackson. look at the stats on him from the army and then in rivals. 6-1, check. 278, check. 5.52, no check. rivals shows him 5.0 and no checkmark. hmm . . . shuttle time is close but no checkmark. rivals says his vertical is 28in with no checkmark while he jumped 25.50 at the combine. this is not to question desmond. everybody knows what a terrific prospect he is. i'm just saying be careful with posted numbers.

now a couple of guys i like a lot, marquis jackson and mykkele thompson. first marquis. 6-0, check. 205, check. 4.88, no check. rivals show him 4.4 in the 40. also rivals shows him 4.09 in the shuttle with no checkmark. army says 4.20.

mykkele is even more interesting. besides the obvious disparity in 40 times (though not as off as marquis for some reason) look at his reported height. army says 6-0 and rivals says 6-1 with a checkmark. did rivals get that from some other official source? or should checkmarks be taken with a couple of grains of salt, too?

how about hakeem flowers who visited us from south carolina? size and weight check out but no mention of 40 time on rivals. i guess with a baloney 4.85 at the army combine, i can understand rivals leaving that off. they wouldn't stand to make much money off hakeem's recruitment with a time like that posted.

not much info on marcus hutchins in rivals, but it is interesting to note that his checkmarked height does not square with the army numbers.

i'm showing mj's numbers here so you can see what the disgruntled posters are pointing to. for the record, i am very bullish on mj after seeing the youtube. very. but i thought it might be interesting to note that rivals put up the full numbers on him whether they make any sense or not. i'm guessing rivals didn't figure to make much money off him.

here again, please don't think i am disparaging these young men in any way. am definitely not. i'm just showing the sort of thing i have noticed over the years that has made me extremely skeptical of reported numbers. so the next time somebody moans about us taking slow, slow 4.9 cedric reed instead of blazer nathan hughes and his reported 4.7, understand why there will be a stifled yawn from this corner. i might comment about our coaches apparently thinking both could make the slide to quick tackle but cedric shows potential to mount a rush more from the edge. or maybe i won't. puns like that give me the heebie-jeebies.
 
by the way, i won't be able to leave this amalgam graphic up very long at the place where i have it. i'm guessing nobody can post it for me, so after i take it down, the pic will apparently go away at some point in the future. i'm hoping it sticks around long enough that it won't matter.
 
i might make some mention of why my disgusting habit of making pun-like comments boogers me so much.

one notable event was when i hired on at general dynamics up in fort worth many years ago. i didn't know it, but the boss man of that group was some kind of religious nut who belonged to something not too dissimilar i gather from a jim jones outfit. now, i don't have any problem with people who are religious. i myself am somewhat religious with a little 'r'. but this guy was apparently a raging wild man that way.

anyway, one of the first things i was tasked with was to draw up a little electrical component that was to be installed on the f-16 and the little mount that was to support it. the mount was a standard part and there was plenty of info on it, but unbeknownst to us, the little component had not been released, so i couldn't find a thing.

i was standing at the card catalog looking for info on the component when the r-nut boss man sauntered past. friendly-like he asked me if i was finding everything ok. fool that i am, i told him i was having trouble finding any information on the little component but that there was plenty on the little mount. 'heck, i could probably give a sermon on the mount.'

i never did get out from under that. i was in that man's crosshairs every step i took for three years. he once scratched out the nice review i got from my lead and wrote in red: 'glenn, if somebody asks me next year why i haven't fired you, i don't know what i'm going to say.' not making this up.

my uncontrollable habit has cost me immeasurably over the years, and i am on permanent notice in west texas, where my sort of humor is not taken lightly, to stay out. i slip in and out of there but i try to stay pretty quiet.
 
There is so much ********* involved with the collection of data that the numbers are, at best, very general indicators.

Maybe McFarland slipped on starting. Maybe he had a severe cold that day and decided to run anyway. Maybe he has never tried running a 40 for time and has poor form. We don't know.

What we do know, after watching him on film, is that he is a badass who the UT coaches, after watching him in person, decided is a good enough talent to offer a very precious scholarship.
 
hand timed vs computer time
track vs grass
head wind vs tail wind
good start vs bad start

all of that can make the difference between a 4.7 and a 4.9
 
thanks for the suggestion. i didn't know about that place. probably what i'll do next time.

where i put it up isn't a good place.

funny. i just deleted the pic but it is still up like the other one on the football board. i don't know how long (permanent maybe-that's not a happy thought) it will stay. like i say, not a good place for that.
 
I think Joe nailed it... I would like to see referenced times from a Nike, UA or Rivals camp... that way equal comparisons can be made. The rest has to be taken with a grain of salt and a lot of belief in the coaches!

hookem.gif
 
i agree, but even if strict guidelines were followed, all kinds of things can still make for questionable times. getting over a muscle pull, for example. there's never a little asterisk comment of explanation. just numbers. i don't ignore them but i don't salute them either.
 
thank you, jm, i appreciate it. let's see how long the present one stays up. it's been a couple of days now since i deleted the pic in the 'nebraska exit' post on the main football board and it is still up. looks like it might stick around as long as the post is useful. if it disappears and somebody wants to see it, i'll pm you or figure out how to use the site jack suggested.
 

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