Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts

Good gawd. Someone's meds need adjusting.

I do expect some rough times ahead, but he's essentially describing Armageddon.
 
Seriously, in five years time the end of our world as we know it will have arrived?

I'm no expert by any means, but that seems very far-fetched.
 
He's legendary alright. He ran his hedge fund from $23 billion down to $6 billion in 2000.

The guy is a nut. He has had a court order for a mental exam among other things.

Oh, he's been predicting a recession for over 5 years as well. Eventually he is going to get it right.
 
I believe that is an interview from May 24 '05....I rememeber sitting on our desk, cleaning up my book for the day and hearing it in the background. He didn't predict utter global collapse, what he did predict is what is going on right now, the credit crunch, the massive property bubble collapse, and the consumer having too much debt. As for all the other stuff in there, I don't remember it being that dire.

Robertson was an extremely gifted manager/trader. His "Tiger Cubs" run some of the biggest gorilla funds on the street, there is a reason for that. There is even one in Dallas.

What he has described is essentially what is going on. The Federal Gov't most likely won’t let all of what he said happen, but I wouldn't be so quick to discount everything he says. It is obvious the Gov’t cannot forcibly create credit any longer. They are stuck, debt is contracting and/or being destroyed; basically deflation.

He may be a little tired, but the reason he closed his fund is he was way, way short Technology in the late 90's eary, early 2000, seeing what eventually happened but being way too early.

That is the thing about being short; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Trust me going short, takes balls, and fairly precise timing....had he been able to hold his shorts for a little while longer, he would have had an enormous payoff.
 
I saw elsewhere that that transcript is fake. Supposedly that was an interview with Ron Insana. However, nobody can provide a link to the actual conversation.

Moreover, "total disintegration of all infrastructure"? That's not gonna happen. Power plants will continue to operate, and you will continue to get potable water out of the faucet. And you'll still be able to find doctors to cure you. I've seen total financial collapse in Argentina, and we didn't run out of water or food, and we didn't need to be shooting people in the streets like in the westerns.
 
I guess it depends on where you are. Out of all of my relatives and acquaintances (all middle class people, by the way), nobody got robbed or went without food or water. You could probably get mugged today, right here in Austin, if you went to the right place. But still, getting mugged, being unemployed for a while, etc. is on a whole another scale as "total disintegration of all infrastructure". I'm not saying "everything is gonna be fine". Stocks, bonds, and currencies might vanish into thin air, but the houses, powers plants, water plants, and farms will all still be there.
 
Isn't there always some "Legendary Manager" that comes along every few years and predicts the end of everything?
 
I think AsD is a gold bug.

The early hedge fund guys were able to capitalize on gross market inefficiencies and early adopter status to make gobs of money. Good for them.

Now that the landscape is MUCH more competitive, a lot of these guys are getting absolutely crushed.

This predication of global calamity is silly. Big problems are certainly possible but I am a seller of the doomsday scenario.

Tiger Fund blew up, which was a legendary blow up at the time.
 
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