Ken Pomeroy on rest of season

37% chance of going 16-0 sounds a bit optimistic at this point. I'd assign the probabilities like this:

16-0 20%
15-1 50%
14-2 or worse 30%

Basically I'm saying we are more likely lose two or more games than win them all. Winning them all will be hard. At the same time, losing two or more games is not very likely, either, but perhaps more likely than going undefeated.
 
I disagree. The rest of the schedule is a joke - no ranked teams and not even any pretty good teams left. Through 7 games, Texas has won all their games by double digits and is averaging something like 17-20 pts per win. Account for the lower level of competition and even if Texas throws up a stinker, they still have a good chance of winning it. Their margin for error is huge.

Texas will be heavily favored in every remaining game and hasn't shown any tendency to struggle on the road this season. I think the odds are at least 50/50 at this point of going undefeated in the regular season.
 
Hard to keep the edge up for all 16 games.

Pomeroy has us beating TT at a 99% chance. I would think the chances of beating anyone in the conference is higher than 1%.
 
i remember a recent thread on the "next 5 games." what was pomeroy's percentage on our chances of going undefeated in that stretch? anything is possible at this point. 12:1 odds on the Horns to win it all. kicking myself for not taking it on sunday when it was 20:1.
 
Pomeroy has adjusted up to 38.4% for 16-0 since I originally posted. I think his model makes room for surprises in the way all probability calculations do. I mean, he has us heavily favored in every remaining game -- the Nebraska game is projected to be the toughest, but he still puts us winning at 78% -- and yet the math works out that at some point along the way, most likely, we'll lose.

So, I guess I basically agree with him: we'll most likely drop one along the way, but 1/3 chance of going undefeated seems about right.

He also gives us lots of love in overall rating (#2) and in Adjusted Defense (#1). Hard to argue with either of those.
 
I agree that it is ridiculous to say that Tech only had a 1% chance against us. I'm not sure how he comes up with that. It would seem his model doesn't take into account injuries. Also college basketball can be pretty unpredictable sometimes, partially because teams can get hot and rain three pointers, which are much shorter than in the NBA.

In any case, we look to have a good chance to go undefeated. KU might not lose again so it would be nice to win the Big XII title outright.
 
Pomeroy likely figured that Texas would need to suffer 4 debilitating high ankle sprains for Tech to beat us. Texas needs to win the Big 12 title. That will salt away a #1 seed. Seemingly, the Big 12 north has finally caught up with the south, with Nebraska and Colorado vastly improved and both of the Okie schools down. But this notion about only white meat left is ridiculous. The Horns have three awfully tough road games left, and two losses might just hand the title back to Kansas unless they stumble at Mizzu (unlikely imho). Let's hope the Horns' key frosh don't hit a wall, and Texas can take care of business. The Horns have earned a decent shot at a conference title, but they need to go grab it. No one will hand it to them.
 
We have 4 road games left on the schedule and a bullseye on our back. The toughest game on the schedule (IMO) is the last one - in Waco. Baylor has given us fits the past couple of years and they may well need that W to get off the bubble. While I'll never root against the Horns, I think a loss can sometimes be a good thing. But I'd love to win the Conference title - you can never have too many of those.
 
Loss at Baylor to end season. Shouldn't mean anything to us and "perhaps" EVERTHING to them. I will take that and the #1 or #2 seed no mater what we do in Big 12 tourney.
hookem.gif
 
I agree, Chest: a loss down the stretch probably would help the team. On the other hand, it would be nice to win the conference outright and snap KU's streak of league titles.
 
We were technically the 1-seed in 2006 and 2008. I'd like to win the conference tourney just once. It's dumb to be 0-5 in the championship game... we're like the Buffalo Bills of the conference tourney.

The 2001 game was the worst... we had something like a 19-5 lead early in the game and ended up losing 54-45. Kelvin Sampson = epitome of OU cheating success.
 
If we win the regular season title, I don't care if we trot out a starting 5 of Hill, Wangmene, Lucas, Melchionni & Dick for the B12 tourney. We'll probably already have a 1-seed wrapped up and no sense risking an injury or a team that is gassed going into the tourney.
 
haven't we had enough seasons where we just tanked it in the Big 12 tourney to rest up for a NCAA run? just go out and win the f-ing thing. a team on a roll is better than 1 game rest. we'll be fine going in.
 
Online Sportsbooks have Texas at 12:1 to win it all. What I do with these type of props when I feel there is a good chance of that happening...bet 100 to win 1200. That way if Texas even makes it to the final game you can middle it by betting around 600 on the opposing team, either way you walk away with roughly 600 regardless of the winner. So it's really a 6:1 bet that Texas makes it to the finals. With a potential Sweet16 in SA and Final Four in Houston, I'd say 6:1 odds of getting there are pretty good. Ofcourse this is from a financial gain standpoint. As a Horns fan, let's talk this whole damn thing.
 
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