Is Trump Right About NATO?

Musburger1

2,500+ Posts
Deez is probably about the only one on the board other than myself that has a strong opinion on NATO, and he takes the opposite position I do. But anyway, Buchanan makes my case (and Trump's) in today's column.
http://buchanan.org/blog/trump-right-nato-125052

By Patrick Buchanan

I am “not isolationist, but I am ‘America First,'” Donald Trump told The New York times last weekend. “I like the expression.”

Of NATO, where the U.S. underwrites three-fourths of the cost of defending Europe, Trump calls this arrangement “unfair, economically, to us,” and adds, “We will not be ripped off anymore.”

Beltway media may be transfixed with Twitter wars over wives and alleged infidelities. But the ideas Trump aired should ignite a national debate over U.S. overseas commitments — especially NATO.

For the Donald’s ideas are not lacking for authoritative support.

The first NATO supreme commander, Gen. Eisenhower, said in February 1951 of the alliance: “If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project will have failed.”

As JFK biographer Richard Reeves relates, President Eisenhower, a decade later, admonished the president-elect on NATO.

“Eisenhower told his successor it was time to start bringing the troops home from Europe. ‘America is carrying far more than her share of free world defense,’ he said. It was time for other nations of NATO to take on more of the costs of their own defense.”
No Cold War president followed Ike’s counsel.

But when the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, and the breakup of the Soviet Union into 15 nations, a new debate erupted.

The conservative coalition that had united in the Cold War fractured. Some of us argued that when the Russian troops went home from Europe, the American troops should come home from Europe.

Time for a populous prosperous Europe to start defending itself.

Instead, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush began handing out NATO memberships, i.e., war guarantees, to all ex-Warsaw Pact nations and even Baltic republics that had been part of the Soviet Union.

In a historically provocative act, the U.S. moved its “red line” for war with Russia from the Elbe River in Germany to the Estonian-Russian border, a few miles from St. Petersburg.

We declared to the world that should Russia seek to restore its hegemony over any part of its old empire in Europe, she would be at war with the United States.

No Cold War president ever considered issuing a war guarantee of this magnitude, putting our homeland at risk of nuclear war, to defend Latvia and Estonia.

Recall. Ike did not intervene to save the Hungarian freedom fighters in 1956. Lyndon Johnson did not lift a hand to save the Czechs, when Warsaw Pact armies crushed “Prague Spring” in 1968. Reagan refused to intervene when Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski, on Moscow’s orders, smashed Solidarity in 1981.

These presidents put America first. All would have rejoiced in the liberation of Eastern Europe. But none would have committed us to war with a nuclear-armed nation like Russia to guarantee it.

Yet, here was George W. Bush declaring that any Russian move against Latvia or Estonia meant war with the United States. John McCain wanted to extend U.S. war guarantees to Georgia and Ukraine.

This was madness born of hubris. And among those who warned against moving NATO onto Russia’s front porch was America’s greatest geostrategist, the author of containment, George Kennan:

“Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the post-Cold War era. Such a decision may be expected to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”

Kennan was proven right. By refusing to treat Russia as we treated other nations that repudiated Leninism, we created the Russia we feared, a rearming nation bristling with resentment.

The Russian people, having extended a hand in friendship and seen it slapped away, cheered the ouster of the accommodating Boris Yeltsin and the arrival of an autocratic strong man who would make Russia respected again. We ourselves prepared the path for Vladimir Putin.

While Trump is focusing on how America is bearing too much of the cost of defending Europe, it is the risks we are taking that are paramount, risks no Cold War president ever dared to take.

Why should America fight Russia over who rules in the Baltic States or Romania and Bulgaria? When did the sovereignty of these nations become interests so vital we would risk a military clash with Moscow that could escalate into nuclear war? Why are we still committed to fight for scores of nations on five continents?

Trump is challenging the mindset of a foreign policy elite whose thinking is frozen in a world that disappeared around 1991.

He is suggesting a new foreign policy where the United States is committed to war only when are attacked or U.S. vital interests are imperiled. And when we agree to defend other nations, they will bear a full share of the cost of their own defense. The era of the free rider is over.

Trump’s phrase, “America First!” has a nice ring to it.
 
Interesting, I think the only thing off was your frozen in time statement, which taking the Defense industry out of the equation, the date should be more like 1961 or 1962
 
I do agree that the US is shouldering way too much of the cost (in more than just $$) of defending Europe. It does anger me that they look down their noses at us as crude and uncivilized (as do many of our own elites) yet they have no clue what their world would be like if the US decided to pull out of NATO and out of Europe. It's easy to sustain a socialist-paradise like Sweden when so many of your responsibilities, ie costs, are borne by someone else.

IMO, the first step in his "America First" policy should not be pulling out of NATO, however. It should be getting us out of the UN, and the UN out of the US.
 
Trump's statement concerning NATO is really meaningless. It is meant as PR and has no bearing on reality. Look at link1 and link2.

There has been for over a decade a goal of the NATO countries to contribute 2% of their GDP. This is a joke with only 5 (inc. USA) of 28 countries meeting that goal. So how does making another meaningless goal achieve anything?

NATO in reality is a creation of the USA. Being a follower of George Friedman and Stratfor, I believe that the EU will split apart in the not too distant future. If you followed the current Greece crisis, you know that fix is only a patch job and is just a delay to avert countries from leaving the EU. Spots in southern Europe and some countries there have nearly a 25% unemployment rate. There is a strong desire among many in Europe to have an army for the EU instead of NATO. But that will fall apart with the EU. If the EU splits into nothing, then the model for Europe will become a nation-state again. NATO organization will fall apart with the EU in the long run.

If Germany can get out of its current treaties, you will see in time that the German military will become the protector of central and eastern Europe. The USA threatening to drop its support for NATO will hasten that day when Germany will be free to put a lot of its industrial strength into its military prowess. The German military is forced right now to a certain size. The truth that has to be factored into what happens with NATO is that Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world. Because of the military size limitation upon Germany, the % of GDP contribution to its military is decreasing (and is negative). So it is required by treaty to go in the wrong direction. That is the irony in Trump's NATO statement.
 
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Trump's statement concerning NATO is really meaningless. It is meant as PR and has no bearing on reality. Look at link1 and link2.

There has been for over a decade a goal of the NATO countries to contribute 2% of their GDP. This is a joke with only 5 (inc. USA) of 28 countries meeting that goal. So how does making another meaningless goal achieve anything?

NATO in reality is a creation of the USA. Being a follower of George Friedman and Stratfor, I believe that the EU will split apart in the not too distant future. If you followed the current Greece crisis, you know that fix is only a patch job and is just a delay to avert countries from leaving the EU. Spots in southern Europe and some countries there have nearly a 25% unemployment rate. There is a strong desire among many in Europe to have an army for the EU instead of NATO. But that will fall apart with the EU. If the EU splits into nothing, then the model for Europe will become a nation-state again. NATO organization will fall apart with the EU in the long run.

If Germany can get out of its current treaties, you will see in time that the German military will become the protector of central and eastern Europe. The USA threatening to drop its support for NATO will hasten that day when Germany will be free to put a lot of its industrial strength into its military prowess. The German military is forced right now to a certain size. The truth that has to be factored into what happens with NATO is that Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world. Because of the military size limitation upon Germany, the % of GDP contribution to its military is decreasing (and is negative). So it is required by treaty to go in the wrong direction. That is the irony in Trump's NATO statement.
So if and when the EU blows up, NATO becomes a moot point. Very possible.

If we get to that point, it's not out of the question that there would be significant changes within the German political climate. Dependent on how the US manages a breakup with the EU, and what kind of upheaval occurs inside Germany, I don't think its out of the question that Germany would realign itself with Moscow; especially if enough Germans blame the cooperation with the US for the current trends (Muslim immigration, etc.) threatening to launch a major recession.
 
If we get to that point, it's not out of the question that there would be significant changes within the German political climate. Dependent on how the US manages a breakup with the EU, and what kind of upheaval occurs inside Germany, I don't think its out of the question that Germany would realign itself with Moscow; especially if enough Germans blame the cooperation with the US for the current trends (Muslim immigration, etc.) threatening to launch a major recession.

The time frame for this probable EU breakup is during the first half of this century. NATO will exist until the different state political systems start to splinter, and disagreements get vocal. Predicting what the German people will do as a whole is very complicated. [[ They do like to drink their beer and take that month long vacation in the summer.]] However, you can take it to the bank that they will unite together and act as one voice. That seems to be one of the strengths in that culture. The country seems to be in a transition period now after the East and West parts of the country merge back together.
 
I believe that the EU will split apart in the not too distant future. If you followed the current Greece crisis, you know that fix is only a patch job and is just a delay to avert countries from leaving the EU. Spots in southern Europe and some countries there have nearly a 25% unemployment rate. There is a strong desire among many in Europe to have an army for the EU instead of NATO. But that will fall apart with the EU. If the EU splits into nothing, then the model for Europe will become a nation-state again. NATO organization will fall apart with the EU in the long run.

Keep in mind that the EU and the Eurozone are two different things. I could see the Eurozone falling apart, though Germany has shown that it's willing to do almost whatever it takes to preserve it (because its large business interests benefit from it). And you're right. The Greek "fix" wasn't a real fix. It was a delaying of the inevitable. The EU is a different beast, because even if things turn sour with the EU, it can be renegotiated. There are middle grounds that can be reached. (That's not really true with the Eurozone. You either have a common currency, or you don't.)

For example, suppose the UK votes to leave the EU. That wouldn't suddenly turn the UK into a fully sovereign nation again. There's too much money and disruption involved for that kind of action to occur. It would most likely force a negotiation between the UK and the rest of Europe to forge a new relationship that grants more autonomy to the UK. However, it would still remain strongly integrated with continental Europe, even if they didn't call themselves an EU country anymore.

Until Europeans no longer see any point in any type of meaningful continental integration (and we're a very long way from reaching that point), I don't think you'll see the EU completely collapse.

I also don't follow your logic that if the EU did collapse that it would eliminate the purpose of NATO. NATO existed before the EU did and for reasons that had little to do with the EU. We could scrap the EU and keep NATO, and we could scrap NATO and keep the EU. They aren't really dependent on each other.

If Germany can get out of its current treaties, you will see in time that the German military will become the protector of central and eastern Europe. The USA threatening to drop its support for NATO will hasten that day when Germany will be free to put a lot of its industrial strength into its military prowess. The German military is forced right now to a certain size. The truth that has to be factored into what happens with NATO is that Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world. Because of the military size limitation upon Germany, the % of GDP contribution to its military is decreasing (and is negative). So it is required by treaty to go in the wrong direction. That is the irony in Trump's NATO statement.

If Germany really wants to build its military up, it has an interesting way of showing it. Right now, it's military is well below its legal limits, and there's very little public support to boost it dramatically.
 
This is from that link: "At the same time, he said that bridges have not been burned between Russia and NATO, leaving the door open for restored cooperation - although he stressed that the alliance should end its policy of confrontation."

Do you believe that the bridges are not burned? I guess by "NATO" , Grushko means France and Germany? All these US deployments/exercises ---> is that being done with France/Germany encouragement?
 
This is from that link: "At the same time, he said that bridges have not been burned between Russia and NATO, leaving the door open for restored cooperation - although he stressed that the alliance should end its policy of confrontation."

Do you believe that the bridges are not burned? I guess by "NATO" , Grushko means France and Germany? All these US deployments/exercises ---> is that being done with France/Germany encouragement?
The leadership of France and Germany are certainly in lock step with US leadership. Whether "the establishment" in those countries represents the public anymore than it does in the US, or if the public is divided may be another matter.
 
Until Europeans no longer see any point in any type of meaningful continental integration (and we're a very long way from reaching that point), I don't think you'll see the EU completely collapse.

I also don't follow your logic that if the EU did collapse that it would eliminate the purpose of NATO. NATO existed before the EU did and for reasons that had little to do with the EU. We could scrap the EU and keep NATO, and we could scrap NATO and keep the EU. They aren't really dependent on each other.
I am not expressing my own logic but mainly parroting a couple of Friedman's predictions, which are much more audacious in their scope. He has developed a detailed treatise in the two books he published in 2009 (The Next 100 Years) and the last one about a year ago (Flashpoints - the Emerging Crisis in Europe). I realize that NATO and the EU are two independent conceptual entities. I did not mean to imply that the predicted EU collapse would eliminate the purpose of NATO. My own thoughts are that, if the EU were strong enough, it could prevent the future NATO disintegration. Friedman believes that the forces that will hurt NATO are coming from at least two main directions and predicted the demise of NATO at least seven years ago. One is the fact that France and Germany will allow the alliance to dissolve because they will not want to antagonize Russia as their dependence on Russia’s natural gas will further increase. I do not think that the exporting of our new LNG product will hold off that political pressure. Secondly, Friedman views Turkey as a power already and one that will substantially cause friction in the future because Europe will not allow Turkey into NATO. He goes even further in predicting a war that Turkey will help start. The key point is that NATO will not be destroyed by war but by internal conflicts that arise from fault zones that are historically created within Europe and bluffs posed by Turkey. I agree that NATO will not necessarily disappear when the EU falls apart but that there are other economic and geopolitical forces in play other than within the EU.

Friedman's latest book has an underlying theme that the Europe's history of conflicts is not over and gives quite a bit of reasoning based on historical events, geography, natural resources, and economic constraints. This video is a talk that he gave to Google and is a very short description of how and why his latest book came about. It is a brief basis for his logic. Personally, I found the questions from the Google audience at the end more interesting. I understand the difference between the EU and the EURO currency. Friedman's point about the EURO is that it is a road block to trade from different perspectives and will fall by the wayside. I depart from Friedman here and personally believe in the need for the EURO and believe it will continue after the EU but with a smaller group of countries. However, what happens to the EURO will depend upon the severity of economic circumstances as the world erupts with the events that will start to happen as the PIGS nations start to leave the EU.
 
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If Germany really wants to build its military up, it has an interesting way of showing it. Right now, it's military is well below its legal limits, and there's very little public support to boost it dramatically.
I did not say that Germany wants to build its military now under current NATO structure. In fact the data shows that, as a % of GDP, their defense spending has decreased by almost 1.5% from 2014 to 2015. NATO members are supposed to have a goal of an increase of 2% of GDP. I have not studied their economic GDP growth pattern. What I tried to say is, that under a different NATO arrangement where the Germans do not depend as much on USA contributions to their defense in a NATO arrangement (as some say it will change drastically in the coming future), the German attitude will have to change. As that happens, they will have to abandon their legal limits and start to believe that they will have to depend upon only their own military power. As long as the USA sugar daddy is there, why would they be motivated to increase their conventional armed forces as interpreted by the treaty when Germany was united in the 1990 time frame. With the EU there now, they have a protected export to the EU countries of about half of their total GDP. With the EU changing in the future and their export markets changing, their interests in having better air and naval protection for their maritime shipping will undergo a change. As this happens with NATO changing, then military spending will increase and the German attitude will change. But something else will have to change before the German attitude changes

There are some legal limits on defined conventional weapons in the CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) treaty concluded in 1990. However, ignoring that for now, I think you are referring to the soldier count limit. I do not see that the German soldier count has changed much --- just in what they consider to be an active soldier. The total legal limit is 375K by that first treaty. At that point there were about 360K active German military personnel. In 2011 Germany dropped mandatory military service with a conversion to a professional army. At that point they had nearly 230K active soldiers, which dropped to 180K for this year. HOWEVER, the active reserve personnel count for this year is at 145K. This is a total count of 325K. What Germany has done is to decrease the active personnel in favor of an increased number in reserve status in order to save on training costs for their soldiers. It would be interesting to compare how Germany trains reserve soldiers as to how we do in the US for our reserves. The definition of what is a reserve soldier is where the actual soldier count resides.
 
Bevo,

It wouldn't be fair nor would there be much point in me commenting without reading Friedman's book. The reviews I read on it are stellar, so I decided to buy it. I've never read his books, but I've heard him lecture a few times. He's very sharp and has fascinating things to say, so I'm looking forward to it.
 

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