DrunkenMic
25+ Posts
I've been lurking on the west mall quite a bit lately, but not posting because it seems that most of the discussion on presidential candidates has quickly broken down into name calling or severly flawed logic (my favorite has been the "yeah, but Bush..." replies to those attacking Hillary/Barack's platform/record and "yeah, but Clinton..." replies to those attacking McCain's platform/record).
Count me among those that, no matter how much I agree/disagree with a given president's policies, think that they just don't have that much power. (On issues that we think of as affecting our day-to-day life - economic, social welfare, etc. Commander-in-Chief powers are a notable exception.) Presidents have power - or at least it's appearance - when they are able to finesse congress to pass their issues, because the real power lies in the legislative branch.
So, all that being said, I think that the congressional and senatorial races will ultimately have a larger effect on our lives the next 2-6 years than the presidential race will. Yet I've seen little discussion here. I'd imagine that right now most people are like me - it's too early, so we're just not aware of much going on here. But I'm interested to hear opinions so let's dive in.
In '06 Dems overtook the Republican majority for the first time in 12 years, but their approval rating has hovered around 20% lately - even lower than W's. This suggests an opportunity for the Republican's to come sweeping back in. Maybe even taking a significant pluarality. To me, this seems like a great opportunity for some "contract with America" type rhetoric to get their base mobilized. Especially if they also use some of the young voter enthusiasm that Obama has created. But I just don't see enough leadership in the party for that to happen. They will unite in an attempt to win the presidential race, but there is too much of a divide between the Limbaugh/Coulter/Huckabee type conservatives and those with more Libertarian leanings - the socially moderate or liberal, but fiscally conservative - to put together such a party-wide platform.
Meanwhile, the dems seem like they're headed for a very public train wreck and it will take every bit of leadership they can muster to come together in any reasonable manner once the pieces of the Clinton/Obama battle have been cleaned up. Pelosi and Reid have each been a blustering mess, somehow delivering W more power and influence over each house than could ever have been expected and almost making him a sympathetic figure at times. Are there any chances that someone else takes their places as party leaders without them exiting thier elected role?
Will there be a majority shift? To what extent and what will it mean? Without knowing much about what congressional races will be contested and which senate seats are up this round, I would assume a shift will occur - but not a massive one. It will mean some fairly contentious battles if Clinton or Obama win, as they attempt to implement all their social programs. It will mean little if McCain wins as the republicans wouldn't be working with a great majority. We would see the tax cuts made permanent and maybe even a little more, but no major changes would happen on the hot-button social issues. The most interesting piece of this scenario would be seeing if McCain would really be able to eliminate earmarks.
Count me among those that, no matter how much I agree/disagree with a given president's policies, think that they just don't have that much power. (On issues that we think of as affecting our day-to-day life - economic, social welfare, etc. Commander-in-Chief powers are a notable exception.) Presidents have power - or at least it's appearance - when they are able to finesse congress to pass their issues, because the real power lies in the legislative branch.
So, all that being said, I think that the congressional and senatorial races will ultimately have a larger effect on our lives the next 2-6 years than the presidential race will. Yet I've seen little discussion here. I'd imagine that right now most people are like me - it's too early, so we're just not aware of much going on here. But I'm interested to hear opinions so let's dive in.
In '06 Dems overtook the Republican majority for the first time in 12 years, but their approval rating has hovered around 20% lately - even lower than W's. This suggests an opportunity for the Republican's to come sweeping back in. Maybe even taking a significant pluarality. To me, this seems like a great opportunity for some "contract with America" type rhetoric to get their base mobilized. Especially if they also use some of the young voter enthusiasm that Obama has created. But I just don't see enough leadership in the party for that to happen. They will unite in an attempt to win the presidential race, but there is too much of a divide between the Limbaugh/Coulter/Huckabee type conservatives and those with more Libertarian leanings - the socially moderate or liberal, but fiscally conservative - to put together such a party-wide platform.
Meanwhile, the dems seem like they're headed for a very public train wreck and it will take every bit of leadership they can muster to come together in any reasonable manner once the pieces of the Clinton/Obama battle have been cleaned up. Pelosi and Reid have each been a blustering mess, somehow delivering W more power and influence over each house than could ever have been expected and almost making him a sympathetic figure at times. Are there any chances that someone else takes their places as party leaders without them exiting thier elected role?
Will there be a majority shift? To what extent and what will it mean? Without knowing much about what congressional races will be contested and which senate seats are up this round, I would assume a shift will occur - but not a massive one. It will mean some fairly contentious battles if Clinton or Obama win, as they attempt to implement all their social programs. It will mean little if McCain wins as the republicans wouldn't be working with a great majority. We would see the tax cuts made permanent and maybe even a little more, but no major changes would happen on the hot-button social issues. The most interesting piece of this scenario would be seeing if McCain would really be able to eliminate earmarks.
