Inside Stanford's schedule

[OrangeChipper]

To me, this is the best way to measure a team.

Look at who they've played and how well they've played them.

First, their non-conference schedule stunk.

They played many directional schools on the left coast that they took care of.... Their worst loss of the year was against Siena... which now doesn't look THAT bad. They beat Colorado & Tech -(tech by just one point)
Overall, its hard to judge them because they just didn't play the tough competition until conference play.

They almost beat UCLA all three times they played them... losing once on a last second blown call and another time in overtime. Imagine if UT had to play Kansas three times this year. (ouch)

They beat Wazzu both times they played them (a sweet 16 team)
They split with ASU, Oregon, & USC.

Aside from the UCLA loss at home, every other loss was on the road. This bodes very well for us in what amounts to a home game for us.

Other observations: They don't lose by much when they do lose... many of their losses and some of their wins were in Overtime...

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[Beau Vine]

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[UTinBigD]

I think foul trouble is key. Need to take the ball right into the big's chests and see how the refs are going to call it.

 

[seb44]

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[p_town_horn]

I watched the Tech game from court-side, the Lopez got into foul trouble because Tech has several mid sized players who slash in the paint. The Lopez bros get good blocks on tiny guards and are agile enough to handle bigs pretty well but they are not as good against medium sized slashers. We unfortunately do not have any startes who do this. We need Wang and Johnson to get them in foul trouble.

 

[Hobbes2702]

We need to pressure their guards. I wouldn't mind if we ran 3/4 court press or even a full court man. Both would put a lot of pressure on their guards. We need to play tight around the perimeter. If we let aa couple of back door cuts happen then so be it but we need to make it as difficult as possible for them to get the ball into the post.

The Lopez twins are very technically sound. Good post moves, good with back to the basket. They also play solid defense. Their problem is that they are not physical. Get someone in their to put their body into them on O and D and they will struggle and pick up fouls. Also they do not have much range. 10-12' is their max. We need to push them off the block on defense. On O we need DJ to drive to the bucket and draw fouls. We also need to get Dex in their and when he is in we need to get him the ball a lot. He will make them pickup fouls. We also need Connor to hit some early 3s. That will make them come out to guard him making driving easier and rebounding easier.

Our offense needs to get them out of their game. We need to grab rebounds and beat them up the court. If we can get them into a fast game then they can't beat us. They want to grind it out and if we choose to do that than we can't turn the ball over. If we play slow we need to give the guards fits and force lots of turnovers. They can't compete with our guards.

 

[Bob in Houston]

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[Hobbes2702]

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[Bob in Houston]

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[Hobbes2702]

I really think that AJ is going to be more important than anyone in this game. We need him to keep hitting threes. If he keeps hitting than Stanford is gonna have trouble matching our scoring.

 

[OrangeChipper]

We didn't seem to be able to drive on Miami very well. Several times their bigs swatted (i thought goaltended) a DJ layup. If we had issues with Miami, we're in trouble with Stanford.

 

[UTinBigD]

driving and dishing worked well. CA had two of the easiest dunks in CBB history and AJ was on the receiving end of great drive and kickouts, but yeah, DJ and even James did not finish well when getting into the paint.

 

[UTmainman]

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[orangebones]

technically sound, good scorer, a little soft...brook lopez sounds a lot like chris mihm. is that a good comparison?

 

[Go Trees]

The non-conference schedule is especially irrelevant as B Lopez was out for academic reasons at the start of the season. He rounded into form in mid-January and the team has continued to play better. Stanford actually beat Washington State 3 times this year. The USC loss was a hangover game from the 2nd UCLA game (the one with the blown call) and Stanford played really, really poorly. The team played a little stronger at home but this wasn't one of those teams where there's a huge difference in their quality of play at home versus the road.

B Lopez has a very good offensive game and a lot of polish from 12' in. He's also a good free throw shooter. R Lopez offensive game has come on strong over the last 10 games. He isn't as polished offensively as Brook but he can hold his own. He's a 67% FT shooter.

Both of them are more effective when the other one is on the floor. Both are strong shot blockers who will fall for a pump fake and occasionally foul out of frustration when the ball is stolen from them. They are very, very good and well conditioned. Stanford does well on transition D and expecting them to wear out at the end of a fast-paced game would be a mistake. Someone mentioned they aren't physical -- that seems pretty silly to me. They're very strong on the block on love contact. They're half-Cuban and get very emotional too. Most Stanford fans appreciate this as there have been very few cocky Stanford basketball players (Brevin Knight, Art Lee) and they've given this team a fire that most Stanford teams lack.

Taj Finger is a (very) poor man's Connor Atchely. He's an effort/glue guy who always seems to make a shot when needed and be in the right place at the right time in spite of limited skills. He does not have Connor's shooting range and isn't as good a shot blocker either. His not boxing out on rebounds cost us the 2nd UCLA game (before the bogus foul called on Hill)

Law Hill was a very good player last year but has fallen off considerably this year. Between him, Goods, and Fields, they have shot a lot worse from 3 this season than last. Kenny Brown is probably the best shooter but he and Fields don't see the court much because Goods and Washington are much better defenders.

Mitch Johnson was infuriating as a PG but has quietly turned into a pretty decent player. His ball security is good and his shooting has improved but he's still not that good. He does have good vision and will control the tempo. DJ will drive right by him just like Collison but Collison had to work for every point he scored. Stanford often allows guards to penetrate and funnels them directly to the twins in the paint while switching over to the 3 point shooter. It's easy for teams to fall in love with the penetration but get nothing out of it. Arizona never really figured this out.

Stanford is very tall even outside of the twins and averages +8 rebounding for the year. They also block a lot of shots.

Stanford historically as well as this season doesn't run much zone. The zone in the first half against Marquette was extremely rare and was really used as a change-up to confuse them. Had Johnson not be ejected we probably would have seen more of it in the second half. Rebounding could be less of an advantage due to infamiliarity with the zone.

The big men are all good passers and Stanford's low post game is beautiful to watch. The guards usually can't shoot their way out of a paper bag though and the team's desire to play positional defense and rebound can lead to some ugly games.

If Goods or Hill hit from the outside, UT is in trouble. Washington has no offensive game to speak of but is a strong defender. The key to this game will be rebounding. If Stanford is +7 then that means at least one of the twins stayed out of foul trouble and they're getting second chance points. I'd like Stanford's chances then.

UT needs to hit outside shots, rebound, and not give up on offense in the paint -- especially using pump fakes to get the twins in the air and likely to foul. Take transition when it's there but it likely won't be there much.

I've watched both teams a lot this season and I'd give it a 60% chance of a UT win. Texas has the higher upside but Stanford is a very tough matchup and UT cannot afford to have an off game when it comes to rebounding.

 

[Go Trees]

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[NorCalHusker]

While I agree with Hobbes that the Lopez twins are only comfortable from about 8-10 feet in, I absolutely disagree with his assertion that they are not physical. I think most Stanford opponents would agree with the strategy to move Los Lopez off the block; I think they would also agree that that is much easier said than done. Are Atchley or the other UT bigs strong enough to do so?

I also find it interesting that many people still talk about Mitch Johnson as a liability. He is playing much more within himself this season and is not trying to do things he can't. He's not that quick, will not beat defenders off the dribble and create and will not score 20+ a game. He will knock down an open 3, will generally avoid turnovers (even against pressure D) and will effectively distribute the ball and run the offense. He led (or was in a close 2nd) the Pac-10 in assists and had a 2.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. In the game against Marquette (another guard-oriented team), his line was 3-3 from 3 point range, 1 rebound, 1 tunover . . and 16 assists. He is no DJ or AJ, but he is effective with what Stanford wants to do.

I think it'll be interesting to see if Stanford throws some zone at UT. The Trees have used it sparingly this season, mainly to protect Los Lopez if they get in foul trouble or to stop consistent dribble/drive penetration. It's been effective in spurts, but as expected has caused problems as far as keeping offensive players off the boards.

Should be an interesting game. I only wish the game was being played at a truly neutral site! Last season Stanford gets shipped to play Louisville . . . just up the road in Lexington. This season, it's UT in Houston. Ouch.

 

[Bob in Houston]

I'd like it if they'd bring the first half they played in Lexington last year.

 

[NorCalHusker]

Thankfully this is a much improved team from last year.

 

[wadster]

Connor needs to be on. If he's nailing 3s, then it will totally screw up Standford's game. Also the shot from the wing will be open for Damion. With all that said, like any game if AJ is on we win period. If he goes 2-12 we're in for a long afternoon.