Immigration/Hispanics and Election Results

Mr. Deez

Mr. Deez

Beer Prophet
Think what you will about Nate Silver and his assumptions, but he has an interesting anaylysis of how immigration "reform" would impact politics. Link.

He also has a really cool interactive tool that allows you to see what impact the voting trends of different groups would have had in 2012 and would have in the next several elections. Link.

One thing that I think is noteworthy. For Romney to have won in 2012 just be increasing his share of the Hispanic vote, he would have to have won 74 percent of it. That would have shifted Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
 
If republicans can't get close to 50% of a group that is largely pro-life, religious, prefers work to handouts, believes in the traditional family, and has a certain level of distrust of the government, they aren't trying.
 
most of those stereotypes of hispanics are very misleading, particularly when you get to the second and third generations here
 
larry T
On the surface you'd think that BUT look at the perception the media is driving as hard and as often as they can, that because many GOP are not in favor of giving amnesty to illegals that equates to the GOP hating Hispanics
And add in the gov't checks being sent every month that No one, red or yellow black or white, wants to see end
.
people vote their pocketbooks more than anything
How do you get any group to understand the money must come from the taxpayers which means them too, not the obamastash
 
Hui is spot on.

The traditional thinking of illegal immigration has changed 180 degrees in the past 15-20 years.

No longer is the illegal immigrant here temporarily, they are now moving here and bringing there families specifically to work cash jobs, obtain false id papers and receive government handouts. The Mexican Drug cartels are into more than just drugs, they have an entire racket setup to just take money from the US and State government agencies that just hand it out and hand it out.

This is an epidemic, and to only think there are 10-11 million illegals in this country, you would be fooling yourself, I would put that number easily between 15-20 million.
 
One little mentioned factor in the immigration situation is the curious lack of arrests of employers. The fact is that scores of thousands of employers are the vacuum cleaner bringing in the immigrants----they are providing them with jobs. And yet none of them go to prison, which the current laws call for.

My class prejudice, overwhelming as it is, tells me the people who run the government don't want to start arresting the real villains in the piece because every congressman has constituents who depend on cheap, dependent labor to bring in the money that allows them to make a profit, pay their dues at the country club and send their kids to UT and other high priced schools. How would you ever be able to face Mrs. Grobster at the club or at church if her hubby was in the federal joint for hiring foreigners? I mean, who would mow your lawn or cook your meals?

If you pitch five or six employers in every town into the federal pen for six months, all their buds would be firing their illegals in a minute. And no job, no money, no stay in el norte.

They would be replaced at higher wages by Americans. Who would tell the boss to go **** himself when told to do something dangerous----unlike the poor Mexicans who get killed with some regularity because they are too intimidated to tell the boss that his methods are not safe.

If you cut back on the supply of cheap pliable labor you get labor that costs more and jobs that are entry level for the masses of unemployed unskilled young people. The first rung on the employment ladder used to be construction. Go take a look at who is doing the construction work now. You better speak spanish if you want to talk to them.

Labor shortages are a good thing because they create better paying jobs. And as Ronald Reagan pointed out, a good job is the best welfare system.
 
.37% of hispanics may be agnostic or atheist but most of them are not devout anything after they have been here a generation or two.

The only likely converts to the GOP are hispanic business owners.
 
According to the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life national survey:

•The first generation of Latino immigrants is 74 percent Catholic, and 15 percent Protestant.
•The second generation is 72 percent Catholic, and 20 percent Protestant.
•The third generation is 62 percent Catholic, and 29 percent Protestant.


Its difficult to measure how devout somebody is through statistics. But, I do find it interesting that many second and third generation hispanics are becoming protestant but hardly any are becoming agnostic/atheist. Some researchers believe that without the new catholic immigrants from latin america, 50% of the US hispanic population would be protestant. 85% of those consider themselves evangelical or pentecostals. Those are two groups not typically known to be Christmas and Easter Christians.
 
Cruz is no better than the rest of them. The fence is a red herring. The fence will not 'secure' the border. The exit/entry visa thing is crap also.

I'm ok with the never allowing immigrants to recieve benefits but the real answer is e-verify and employer fines. That's it. That's all it would take. No new laws needed. No massive manhunt to deport them all. Just simple enforcement of existing laws followed by significant fines for employers that choose to flout employment laws. It doesn't even have to be jail time. $500 per emp. first offense, $2K second offense, $10K third offense. And once you are on the employer offenders list, you get priority for re-inspection within three months. Guaranteed, employers will let go of all illegals. Guaranteed, if you are legal you'll do everything in your power to substantiate it up front.

As soon as employers are having to pay $10K plus regular wages to keep hiring illegal immigrants then the economics force them to obey current immigration law.
 
I thought part of the Gang of 8 Plan was that that any illegal could become a citizen had to prove they would not be a burden on the gov't.
 
If you didn't come into this country legally you should not be able to become a citizen and be able to vote. If we are going to be forced to let them all stay then they can stay and pay taxes but they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

What the left doesn't understand is the whole ILLEGAL part.
 
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