The economy sucks and the fed is going to print a boat load of more money. The middle east is exploding and Prz Obamas poll numbers are getting better. Oil is going through the roof; businessmen are finding out what Obama care will really cost. Someoneone tell me why he is doing better?
I Dont Get It
- Thread starter mojo17
- Start date
The current polls are not predictive of how the election will turn out in November. In 1980, Carter was up by 4 points at about this stage of the race, and his margin increased to 6 points in early October 1980. Reagan ended up winning that race over Carter by 9.7%, and that was with a third party candidate (Republican John Anderson) taking 6.6% of the vote. And there are numerous other examples. And of course we all know from watching the polls over the last few months how quickly these numbers change.
Also, the polls are currently being conducted as if voter turnout will be the same as it was in 2008, when Obama had a once in a hundred years swell of support behind him. The support for Obama was surreal, with his followers effectively worshiping him as some sort of extraordinary figure that transcended the normal limitations of humanity, anointing him with the expectation of almost supernatural powers. Needless to say, that environment and the expectations that went along with that are long gone.
Not only is the actual turnout not likely to provide the same advantage for Obama as in 2008, in fact the enthusiasm gap actually favors conservative leaning voters by a double digit margin - which is the opposite of what it was in 2008. The swing in enthusiasm is well over 20 points from the 2008 cycle. But none of this is captured by these current polls, which continue to use the 2008 final results as the basis for the polling assumptions in terms of who will show up at the polls. As a result, these polls routinely poll larger numbers of Democrats than Republicans by anywhere from 4% to 11%.
The only polls that anyone will ultimately remember will be the ones taken during the last 10 days prior to the election, as these are the ones that can be checked against the actual results. Watch and see how this plays out over the next 7.5 weeks. And unless you are a mind-numbed simpleton, you will not want to fall into the trap of just mindlessly believing that the current polls are in any way predictive of what the final results will be on November 6, 2012.
Also, the polls are currently being conducted as if voter turnout will be the same as it was in 2008, when Obama had a once in a hundred years swell of support behind him. The support for Obama was surreal, with his followers effectively worshiping him as some sort of extraordinary figure that transcended the normal limitations of humanity, anointing him with the expectation of almost supernatural powers. Needless to say, that environment and the expectations that went along with that are long gone.
Not only is the actual turnout not likely to provide the same advantage for Obama as in 2008, in fact the enthusiasm gap actually favors conservative leaning voters by a double digit margin - which is the opposite of what it was in 2008. The swing in enthusiasm is well over 20 points from the 2008 cycle. But none of this is captured by these current polls, which continue to use the 2008 final results as the basis for the polling assumptions in terms of who will show up at the polls. As a result, these polls routinely poll larger numbers of Democrats than Republicans by anywhere from 4% to 11%.
The only polls that anyone will ultimately remember will be the ones taken during the last 10 days prior to the election, as these are the ones that can be checked against the actual results. Watch and see how this plays out over the next 7.5 weeks. And unless you are a mind-numbed simpleton, you will not want to fall into the trap of just mindlessly believing that the current polls are in any way predictive of what the final results will be on November 6, 2012.
WHERE IS THE LEADERSHIP?
I am pissed and I never come on here pissed - I take it somewhere else but.... the ******* Middle East is melting down - our embassy's attacked, death toll so far 1 ambassador, 2 Navy Seals and an admin. Al Quedia flag over one compound, uprisings in 21 countries. Chaos everywhere in the Middle East and it is spreading.
Were the hell is our leader? One brief statement what, on the late eve of 9-11 or early 9-12 mostly criticizing Romney. He has said NOTHING serious said since then. We get, from the teenager spokesperson, Jay Carney endless spin, still foolishly blaming this on a film... what a joke. Oh sorry, I forgot Obama is too busy campaigning and raising cash to worry about the security of our country here and abroad right now.
Hey Obama your number one obligation, under oath, was / is to protect the security of this country. You should have left the campaign trails days ago and come back to the White House to focus on this.
You sir, ARE the worst POTUS we have ever had. You will lose the electioin in November thanks to your incompetence.
Rant over.
I am pissed and I never come on here pissed - I take it somewhere else but.... the ******* Middle East is melting down - our embassy's attacked, death toll so far 1 ambassador, 2 Navy Seals and an admin. Al Quedia flag over one compound, uprisings in 21 countries. Chaos everywhere in the Middle East and it is spreading.
Were the hell is our leader? One brief statement what, on the late eve of 9-11 or early 9-12 mostly criticizing Romney. He has said NOTHING serious said since then. We get, from the teenager spokesperson, Jay Carney endless spin, still foolishly blaming this on a film... what a joke. Oh sorry, I forgot Obama is too busy campaigning and raising cash to worry about the security of our country here and abroad right now.
Hey Obama your number one obligation, under oath, was / is to protect the security of this country. You should have left the campaign trails days ago and come back to the White House to focus on this.
You sir, ARE the worst POTUS we have ever had. You will lose the electioin in November thanks to your incompetence.
Rant over.
It'll be interesting to see how he handles it. I'm not sure that he has a play that will speak strongly to his foreign policy skills and leadership yet kowtow sufficiently to the always reasonable fundamentalist muslin world. I think that perhaps his best hope, and perhaps his relative silence suggests he agrees, is for the whole thing to blow and he and the media go focus on criticizing how Romney is mishandling the situation.
from the vibe out there, it looks like some military beefing up is going on to protect consulates and embassies. To me, it's too late.
Like Woo said, the way Obama mishandled his duty in the face of a crisis is what is most disturbing.
Also disturbing is that Feinstein and Rogers were both on record stating this was a coordinated attack, likely planned for some time. Not an act of immediate hatred over a movie or the like.....Yet there was Carney there today in a presser saying the attacks were the reaction to a movie slandering Muslems
Where does the spin and lies stop? Blatantly they were trying to spin this to cover the fact we were unprepared for what happened
And of course MSM ran with that line for 12 hrs before they knew they couldn't make that line stick.
The whole void of leadership is not disappointing, it's disturbing
Like Woo said, the way Obama mishandled his duty in the face of a crisis is what is most disturbing.
Also disturbing is that Feinstein and Rogers were both on record stating this was a coordinated attack, likely planned for some time. Not an act of immediate hatred over a movie or the like.....Yet there was Carney there today in a presser saying the attacks were the reaction to a movie slandering Muslems
Where does the spin and lies stop? Blatantly they were trying to spin this to cover the fact we were unprepared for what happened
And of course MSM ran with that line for 12 hrs before they knew they couldn't make that line stick.
The whole void of leadership is not disappointing, it's disturbing
Burnt Orangeman
1,000+ Posts
So getting us embroiled in another endless middle eastern war or 2 with no goal or exit strategy or logistical soundness wherein you play into the hands of your enemy and allowing something worse to fill the vacuum is your idea of leadership? Turning a surplus into a massive deficit is what passes for leadership as long as its spent on the military? You're right Scottie. You just don't get it.
8.4% unemployment, record gas prices, Fed printing cash without regard to the long term consequences, record federal debt and our middle east enemies are on the attack killing an ambassador. Pretty much feels like the late 70's like old Jimmy was in charge. The problem is that a majority of Americans count on the government which is paid for by a minority of Americans.
Four more years of Obama will result in major social and economic problems not seen since the Great Depression.
Four more years of Obama will result in major social and economic problems not seen since the Great Depression.
hornpharmd
5,000+ Posts
For those of you who insist that those of us who disagree with the President and his policies are simply against him personally, what exactly has he accomplished in his four years?
He killed OBL, but the Middle East is now in worse shape than when he took over. The economy is still down and unemployment remains above 8%. The federal debt is at an all time high. Please enlighten us.
He killed OBL, but the Middle East is now in worse shape than when he took over. The economy is still down and unemployment remains above 8%. The federal debt is at an all time high. Please enlighten us.
HornsForever'93
1,000+ Posts
Fortunately the right wing whack jobs on hornfans are not reflective on the country as a whole
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