Hurricane Dorian

mchammer

mchammer

10,000+ Posts
Any chance it hits Austin or Baton Rouge? Has a week to transverse the Gulf.
 
The national hurricane center's "cone of uncertainty" has it hitting pretty much anywhere along the Florida coast. If it hits the most southern part of the state I'd say it might have a chance of staying organized enough to cause some trouble near LA, but I'm thinking just a bad storm at that point.
 
Here's the cone of uncertainty as of 5 pm today
204641_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

All of Florida is at risk right now; looks like Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach is in the center of the cone (for now). We were there a couple weeks ago and I'd hate to see that area get hit by a major storm.
 
One high pressure system is moving toward Carolina, with a stronger high over the Panhandle. That puppy is going across Tampa out in the Gulf and then Morgan City to Biloxi landfall.

Coonasses bigger problem is five 18 wheelers piled up on the Atchafalaya bridge this morning, with a fire. Haven't heard if the bridge is too pitted to drive across. If so, old 190 and the Audubon Parkway may get real crowded.
 
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Like many in Texas, I’ve lived through some hurricanes and tropical storms. I find the scientific weatherman jargon on this topic amusing. So when are they going to show the “cone of absolute certainty” or the “cone of high likelihood” or even the “cone of there ain’t no f@$king way?”

The limits of my amateur non-meteorologist knowledge is that Low Pressure is like a magnet for hurricanes while High Pressure keeps them away. Also high level “steering currents” in the winds high in the atmosphere can both steer and weaken/shear the storm. Warm water strengthens them, cold water weakens them. Land and especially mountains (DR, Cuba, Haiti, PR) really weakens them. And the Gulf is pretty warm through the end of September...
 
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from an update 5 minutes ago from Travis Herzog of ABC13 in Houston:

This is an unusual storm. Hurricane Dorian is getting stronger tonight north of Puerto Rico as it takes aim on the Bahamas and Florida in the days ahead. The track it has taken thus far is unusual for this time of year, and the track it is predicted to take is unprecedented for a hurricane in Dorian's position.

There is high confidence in the track through Friday, but then things diverge Saturday based on how strong the hurricane gets. A stronger hurricane will likely slow down and turn westward toward south Florida, eventually getting into the Gulf of Mexico. A "weaker" storm would track more northward toward north Florida and Georgia, but this path is looking less likely given the steady strengthening observed today.

What does this mean for us in Texas? For now it remains highly unlikely that Dorian gets anywhere near us, but it is technically not impossible. I'd put it at less than a 5% chance based on the data I've seen this afternoon. In other words, I'm not losing any sleep over it, but I will watch it just in case.
 
"What does this mean for us in Texas? For now it remains highly unlikely that Dorian gets anywhere near us, but it is technically not impossible. I'd put it at less than a 5% chance based on the data I've seen this afternoon. In other words, I'm not losing any sleep over it, but I will watch it just in case."

Sounds like the Lone Star State is in the "Cone of don't bet the house on it."
 
We need the rain everywhere except in Houston, but Texas will be ok as long as the storm doesn't get into the Gulf.
 
Dorian could throw a monkey wrench into the Week 2 schedule of the ACC and SEC

How Hurricane Dorian could affect college football's Week 2

With latest projection models pointing to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and surrounding areas feeling the brunt of the storm's force, many college football games in those states could be changed this week, including the following on Saturday:
  • Charleston Southern at South Carolina
  • Western Carolina at NC State
  • South Florida at Georgia Tech
  • Texas A&M at Clemson
  • Charlotte at Appalachian State
  • Murray State at Georgia
  • Louisiana Monroe at Florida State
  • Furman at Georgia State
  • Western Kentucky at Florida International
  • UT Martin at Florida
  • Miami at North Carolina
 
Yes and the storm is supposed to be off VA by Friday night.

Why did FSU move the game? Way premature.
 
SabreHorn said:
Giovanni,

Not sure it will make landfall, and all those games are obviously on the dry side.
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Well, we were on the "dry" side of Hurricane Ike in 2008 but the eye wall passed only 45 miles east of us and generally made a mess of things (because 90+ mph sustained winds; fortunately I decided earlier that year to replace our windows with quality storm windows). We were without power for less than 48 hours, only because of the dumb luck that the crews started restoring power in our area first, but we knew people just a few miles away from us (and much further inland) who didn't get power restored for up to 10 days. Rain wasn't such a big deal with Ike, but lack of power for an extended time was for hundreds of thousands of people.

All that to say that these storms are (obviously and notoriously) unpredictable and the effects can be wide-ranging. We had to evacuate for Rita in 2005 when all the projections showed it heading straight for the Brazosport area; but at the last minute it hung a hard right and hit the Texas-Louisiana border area instead. No one saw that coming. We evacuated for Ike too (it was a mandatory evacuation) but one of our neighbors decided to ride it out. A few days later when we were collecting storm debris (mostly tree limbs and a lots of shingles from other people's roofs) he let on that he decided at 2:00 a.m. that he had made probably the worst decision of his life.

In any case, I wish Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas the best and I dearly hope that Dorian stays far enough out to sea that the effect on them is minimal.
 
Giovanni Jones said:
In any case, I wish Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas the best and I dearly hope that Dorian stays far enough out to sea that the effect on them is minimal.
Click to expand...
This storm has no identity other than it has produced 200+ gusts and a 10-foot storm surge while over the Bahamas. Right now it is moving due west at 1 mph with the outer bands already hitting an area from Ft. Pearce down to Fort Lauderdale. The conventional theory is it will turn north tomorrow and rake the eastern side of I-95 for the remainder of the week before going back to sea off Virginia on Friday.
 
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