If Texas significantly improves its record, say to 20 wins and an NCAA tournament invite, it will strengthen recruiting momentum and make us a true "program on the rise." If its another disaster, some our great 2015 pledges may be tempted to rethink. On the plus side, the whole team comes back---a year older and more experienced; so they will certainly be better. The question is how much? I know one person who doesn't think the extra maturity guarantees success. Her name is Karen Aston. Once again Aston went into the Juco market and recruited a new point guard, Krystle Henderson. She told the media it was to provide "added depth," but actually she's trying to improve our woeful scoring offense.
You aren't going to win much when you average only 57.2 points a game in the Big 12. You can talk about turnovers and static offensive schemes , but the fundamental reason Texas couldn't score was because we couldn't shoot. Celina Rodrigo's three point percentage in conference play was .000%. She tried 10 three pointers and missed them all. She played 30 minutes a night and averaged 1.8 points a game. Brady Sanders was .150 from beyond the arc, Davenport .269, Chassidy Fussell only .263, Mazionyte .294. Those are terrible percentages. I will cut Fussell some slack. She had to run herself ragged for 35 minutes a game, closely guarded and frequently double teamed---because opponents could sag off UT's other guards, pack it into a zone, and concentrate on Chassidy, McGee and Enempali. Texas made only 3 threes a game. Our opponents averaged six. That's a difference of 9 points a game and by itself accounts for our average seven point deficit. (All stats are from Big 12 Conference play) Like all bad teams, Texas lost for a variety of reasons, but in modern basketball you have to shoot the three to compete at a championship level. Texas couldn't do it, and it cost us game after game. Our team three point percentage was .256, dead last in the Big 12. TCU, in ninth place at .309, was over 50 points better! (The top five league teams all averaged over .325. ) We weren't great at mid range jumpers, either. Rodrigo shot .264 from the field; Sanders .266; Fussell .373; Davenport .419.
Will we shoot better this year? Most players improve, but very few progress all the way from being bad shooters to good ones. The odds (not me, the odds) say that Davenport, Sanders and Rodrigo will not become deadly outside gunners. Davenport did seem to be coming on at the end of the season, and she can create mid range jumpers for herself; so she seems the most likely to raise her scoring average. Ashley Roberts was hurt for most of Conference play, but for the year she averaged 41% from beyond the arc. It should help to have her back on the court. A lot depends on whether the newcomer, Henderson, provides a scoring lift at the point. In junior college her three point percentage was 35.2%, which is way better than our guards shot last year. I don't know if she can drive or dish or hit the pull-up, but if she can be an outside threat, she will open defenses up. That would help everybody, especially the big girls. McGee-Sanders is a special, special talent. I've never seen a player improve so much from the start of a season to the end. If she had played for a better team, she'd already be a national name. If she stays healthy, she can score 20 a night and be an All American. If Nneka Enempali develops a good outside jumper, she will be a real star, too. If she could draw defenders outside the paint, as well as score inside, her scoring average---and U.T.'s---would improve dramatically. Enempali improved tremendously from her freshman to sophomore season, so maybe she will continue to step up her game. As for the newcomers, I could sure be wrong, but I don't see them lifting our scoring potential much this season. Lang and Vander Zee are centers, where we're already strong. Nekia Jones, at an eye-popping 260 pounds, is a Charles Barkley type power forward/wing type, not a jitterbug outside shooter. She may prove to be a special talent, but she, too, would benefit from good outside shooters to open up the court for her. Brianna Taylor has been described as a terrific athlete with mid conference skills. I've never seen her play. Maybe she will become a scorer in college. Right now we don't know.
You aren't going to win much when you average only 57.2 points a game in the Big 12. You can talk about turnovers and static offensive schemes , but the fundamental reason Texas couldn't score was because we couldn't shoot. Celina Rodrigo's three point percentage in conference play was .000%. She tried 10 three pointers and missed them all. She played 30 minutes a night and averaged 1.8 points a game. Brady Sanders was .150 from beyond the arc, Davenport .269, Chassidy Fussell only .263, Mazionyte .294. Those are terrible percentages. I will cut Fussell some slack. She had to run herself ragged for 35 minutes a game, closely guarded and frequently double teamed---because opponents could sag off UT's other guards, pack it into a zone, and concentrate on Chassidy, McGee and Enempali. Texas made only 3 threes a game. Our opponents averaged six. That's a difference of 9 points a game and by itself accounts for our average seven point deficit. (All stats are from Big 12 Conference play) Like all bad teams, Texas lost for a variety of reasons, but in modern basketball you have to shoot the three to compete at a championship level. Texas couldn't do it, and it cost us game after game. Our team three point percentage was .256, dead last in the Big 12. TCU, in ninth place at .309, was over 50 points better! (The top five league teams all averaged over .325. ) We weren't great at mid range jumpers, either. Rodrigo shot .264 from the field; Sanders .266; Fussell .373; Davenport .419.
Will we shoot better this year? Most players improve, but very few progress all the way from being bad shooters to good ones. The odds (not me, the odds) say that Davenport, Sanders and Rodrigo will not become deadly outside gunners. Davenport did seem to be coming on at the end of the season, and she can create mid range jumpers for herself; so she seems the most likely to raise her scoring average. Ashley Roberts was hurt for most of Conference play, but for the year she averaged 41% from beyond the arc. It should help to have her back on the court. A lot depends on whether the newcomer, Henderson, provides a scoring lift at the point. In junior college her three point percentage was 35.2%, which is way better than our guards shot last year. I don't know if she can drive or dish or hit the pull-up, but if she can be an outside threat, she will open defenses up. That would help everybody, especially the big girls. McGee-Sanders is a special, special talent. I've never seen a player improve so much from the start of a season to the end. If she had played for a better team, she'd already be a national name. If she stays healthy, she can score 20 a night and be an All American. If Nneka Enempali develops a good outside jumper, she will be a real star, too. If she could draw defenders outside the paint, as well as score inside, her scoring average---and U.T.'s---would improve dramatically. Enempali improved tremendously from her freshman to sophomore season, so maybe she will continue to step up her game. As for the newcomers, I could sure be wrong, but I don't see them lifting our scoring potential much this season. Lang and Vander Zee are centers, where we're already strong. Nekia Jones, at an eye-popping 260 pounds, is a Charles Barkley type power forward/wing type, not a jitterbug outside shooter. She may prove to be a special talent, but she, too, would benefit from good outside shooters to open up the court for her. Brianna Taylor has been described as a terrific athlete with mid conference skills. I've never seen her play. Maybe she will become a scorer in college. Right now we don't know.
