Horns point production next year

D

DirtyFranke

25+ Posts
So the quick mention of the depth chart next year if AJ and DJ both stay in the draft got me thinking about where our points are going to come from with our starting backcourt gone>

the link

Some people on OB are saying that AJ actually has a few teams interested and is pretty intent on leaving so this could be a real possibility. I'm not too worried as I'm hoping we'd go back to being a shut down defensive team that holds opponents under 40% shooting and wins ugly games by scoring 65-75 points. Balbay is supposed to be a fantastic defender and we know how good Mason is so we could really force some turnovers. Comined with our depth in the front court and their hopeful improvement of defense (Pittman, Lexi, Chappy, Johnson) we should be a salty team all the way around, especially if the freshman this year improve as much as the freshman from last year.

The statesman article certainly made one thing clear. If we lose both AJ and DJ we will be wicked thin in the backcourt next year, especially considering there is some concern as to whether J'Covan will qualify. If we don't sign anyone else (which we probably will but likely not a guard) this may be the year Harrison Smith gets his chance. Hope he's working hard in the offseason.

All that being said, this is what I think about when I'm on the shitter about point production for next year.

PG - Balbay 8-10pts
SG - Mason 10-12pts
SF - James 16pts (this is big, time to step up and be consistent)
PF: Johnson 10-12pts
C: Atchely 10-12pts
54-62pts

Bench: Pittman, Lexi, Chapman, Hill, Smith, Brown, hopefully Ebanks or Spoon --- 10-20pts(?)

This would give us anywhere from 64 to 82 pts/game. If we get back to playing D and rebounding like this team is capable this is probably enough points to win most games.

While losing AJ and DJ will suck I'm kind of excited of the prospect of a taller, lockdown backcourt.

Thoughts?
 
I still can't see AJ staying in the draft. People have drawn comparisons to Gibson, but Gibson had the physical ability to be an NBA PG, he just lacked the skill set. AJ on the other hand has neither the physical ability nor the skill set.
 
I agree, but it just takes 1 team to tell him they'll draft him. If he does it will go to a team where he's a perfect fit that needs outside shooters to compliment penetration and inside game. I just don't see him sticking.

We definitely need him next year so we have some depth in the back court.
 
This sucks it would have been the 2nd National Title under Barnes if DJ would have return and the other coming if TJ would have come back.
 
What if Durant came back this year? Or if LA, DG, or PJ came back last year? Have to think either of those teams would have been legitimate title contenders.
 
DJ is gone for sure, top 10-15 pick. No question
AJ is just looking to see who is interested and what he has to do to be a 18-20+ pick next year. 75%sure AJ comes back.

Bet a cold beer that AJ and Mason share the 1 slot and Balbay is the first guard off the bench. CBrown gets qualified, people in the know say that he will qualify before summer ????
AJ ------ 15-20 points
Mason-- 7-10
James---14-20
Johnson-8-12
Connor--12-15

Range of 56-75 pretty good for starting 5.

Bench: Balbay, Pittman, Lexi, Chapman, Hill, Smith, Brown, hopefully Ebanks or Spoon --- 10-20pts(?)
Range of 66-95 total squad scoring . This would be outstanding if it comes out.

Another year for our bigs to improve on the Offensive side and their defense will also improve.

Mason, Balbay, Brown are in your face "D', AJ plays smart defense which also will get better.
Connor blocks shots, hopes he adds about 20 lbs and rebounds better + better defense.
James upside is out of sight on both ends, needs to pay better attention to the ball.
Johnson is going to have 20 games or so under his belt and is learning what it takes to play in the big 12, He is getting better in his scoring area of 10-12 feet , defense will just get better.
Dex can score, needs a go to shot to be effective. Defense he is a monster but he only has 5 fouls to give. If Dex can get his feet under him and develope more balance with the weight he is carrying I can see him playing 7-13+ minutes.
Lexi, Chapman, Hill unknown, Smith will all have to get better to get playing time what little there is.
Throw Ebanks or Spoon in the mix and the minutes dry up for the 3-5 slots if either can score like they can and having seen them play several times they also can play some defense.
RB is a bonus, he will get guys to play defense as we have seen. The Horns (dare I say it) may just be better on defense and more diverse on offense = very good team.
 
First of all, I expect AJ will be back - no real suprise. But, I also expect Pittman to crack the starting line up next year. He really came on strong towards the end of the year. If he continues to work hard in the off season. I see him starting at the #5 and Atchley sliding over to the #4 (which is the position he'll need to play at the next level.) So, the starting line up and first off the bench at each position will be:

#1 Mason, backed up by Balbay
#2 AJ, backed up by Brown
#3 Damion, backed up by GJ (Barnes hinted that he might do this)
#4 Athley, backed up by Chapman/Hill
#5 Pittman, backed up by Wangemene

As for the scoring, I'd expect AJ and Damian to lead the way with 15-20 each. Pittman, Atchley and Mason will all average 5-10 points. Team-wide the overall point production will be down without an adept point guard, but I also think we give up less on defense.
 
Sorry, but I just don't see Gary Johnson as a "3" - at least not one I would be very comfortable with any time soon. Maybe if he is dead set on playing the position he might be ok in two years, but I wouldn't expect much this next year.

James is a much more natural 3. If he continues to work on his shooting and his handle, he will be a high draft pick next year. He also needs to get his FT% up into the high 70's.
 
You beat me to it. GJ is not a 3 at this point. He can fill in there for short periods but I don't see extended time especially if we land another recruit.

I also don't see Dex and Atch playing next to eachother much. I don't think Atch can guard most 4s. I also don't think RB will put Atch on the bench. I think he is a starter until he graduates.

I also think the poster (skymonkey) that said Mason/AJ will start at the point is dead wrong. SLX and GerryH on OB have talked about nothing but how natuarl a PG Balbay is and how he flourishes in pick n roll offenses. He's also been playing in Turkish pro leagues for awhile. He may not start from day 1 but he'll get there quickly if he doesn't have to sit out the first 10 games.

If AJ does come back we are going to be pretty salty and versatile. I just don't think he can play pg. J'Covan sure looks like he can from some of the videos I saw. Just looks like a natural ball player.

It will be interesting to see what happens in our back court starting lineup. Barnes loves, Mason, AJ and James but I don't think they can all start if/when Balbay takes over the point. If I had my way Mason would take over starting at the 2 with AJ scoring off the bench but we saw Barnes doesn't like to go that way. Maybe Barnes will stick with last years line up and put in Doogy for DJ and we'd just start small.

It's going to be an interesting season since we actually have some depth and decisions will have to be made.
 
Point production from the post guys is going to be the key.

Can Dex get us 8-10 points a game? Will he be in shape to play 20 minutes a game?

What is Gary going to step up to? Are we going to start dumping it into the post for him?

How is Connor going to adjust to playing without a dominant offensive force like DJ or Kevin? Is he still going to get the looks he got these past two years? If not, is he going to be be able to create his own shot off the dribble or in the post?

Can Wangmene or Chapman give us any points? What will Matt Hill contribute?

I feel much more confident about the backcourt. I think Mason is going to become a 12-14 point scorer next year. I know this is stupid to even think and probably stupider to post, but I wonder if the team would be better if AJ left? We can go to a more conventional lineup, and if Balbay is as advertised, a Balbay/Mason backcourt is long, athletic, and dominate defensively. J'Covan and Ebanks/Witherspoon (hopefully) off the bench is solid, and then James can play all his minutes at the 3 like he should, and we can play 2 bigs at all times, which is where we are the deepest and most talented. Having to have Abrams on the court almost the whole game forces a lot of compromises in the lineup.

And he is a good offensive player who needs to be on the court. Maybe if he left Barnes wouldn't have the crutch of Abrams' scoring and will have to devise other ways for the team to put points on the board.
 
Balbay is a very good PG no question there, my questions are
Will RB make AJ, (if he comes back) a 6th man?? I do not think so IMO.
Will RB bring Mason off the bench?? IMO NO, best defender not on the floor, no way.

Aj and Mason will start and they will share handling the PG, with Mason doing most of the work but AJ will handle it more then he has.

I think you are right that Balbay will start this season , and Barnes will go small when he gets the chance to do it and who plays the best.
James and Johnson will play together alot unless a big man steps forward and claims the 5 slot. The two bring alot of hustle and energy to the rebounding and defense side.

Depending on what Hill brings to the table, RB will be playing with his starters and rotation before conference play and then settle into a rotation that may not look like anything that we have speculated about.
We will be very good if we play pressure the ball defense and learn to play 40 minutes of BB.
When does the season start again ?
hookem.gif
 
Even assuming AJ comes back, we will be thin at guard, so I think Damian will get the lion's share of minutes at the #3. Gary Johnson at the #3 may be a stretch, but I'll stick with my prediction of Pittman starting at #5 and Atchley at #4.

Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I'm convinced that we need to make the most of Pittman next year. Guys with his size don't come around that often. IMO, we better use him while he can, because the NBA is gonna come calling.

You may worry about Atchley guarding a #4, but I'm just as intrigued by the match ups that Damian at the #3 and Atchley at the #4 could create. Put a small forward on Damian and he can post him up. Put a big forward on Atchley and he can take him outside.
 
Dexter's per minute numbers are pretty good, but I'd have to think he needs to average double digits in something before the NBA will get too excited.

I think he's a four-year guy.
 
Sorry, Bob, but I beg to differ. THE NBA drafts on potential. Guys with Pittman's body just don't come around that often. IMO, when he wants to go, someone is gonna draft him on size alone. I'm hoping that we make the most of him before he's gone. If he does crack the starting line up, I expect he'll be a double-double guy.
 
while I love the optimism, I'm not sure I'd share that outlook on Dexter. if he was a legit 7 footer, I might be more inclined to agree with you. while he is solid on the block offensively, he is a defensive liability. I don't think it's a stretch to say that he might get a shot in the league one day, I just don't think he falls into the "size = getting drafted" category. in fact, I've never heard anyone opine that his size guarantees him a spot in the league.

I'm not sure I see any PG minutes for AJ next year. Mason looked competent handling the ball towards end of the year when we took DJ off the ball. I imagine that he'll probably start at PG and Balbay will spell him. I think the unfortunate thing here is that many have pointed out that the Barnes's offense needs a stud PG in order to be truly effective. while I love Mason's game and think he can be a competent PG, he'll never be TJ or DJ.

I think the most important thing for next years team is James working on his ball skills and being able to attack the basket on the dribble. every other element of his game is there (sans FT shooting). IMO, he's going to have to be "the man" next year on the offensive end.

the other thing I'll say is that I envision Gary Johnson having a big impact next year. he really did a great job this year of attacking the basket from the elbow -- as well as knocking down the open J from the same area.

I'll also say this, if we land Ebanks, it's difficult to fathom him not being in the starting 5.

despite the lack of a true PG, I think the outlook for next year is rather rosy. I'm looking forward to it.
 
Some comments over what I'm reading....

1) Dexter Pittman will NEVER average over 15-20 minutes per game because of his weight....never.

2) The PG position next year will be manned by Dogus Balbay and J'Covan Brown. Brown is 10x the PG that Mason is now....better ballhandler, better passer....he's gotta qualify first though. Mason and AJ will man the SG postion.

Estimated Point Production for Next Year...

AJ Abrams: 14 ppg
Damion James: 14 ppg
Justin Mason: 10 ppg
J'Covan Brown: 10 ppg
Gary Johnson: 8 ppg
Connor Atchley: 8 ppg
Dexter Pittman: 5 ppg
Dogus Balbay: 3 ppg
Clint Chapman: 3 ppg
Alexis Wangmene: 3 ppg
 
Pittman is absolutely a 4 year guy. He offensive game outside of 5 feet is practically non-existent, and no one knows what kind of numbers he can put up because of his limited minutes. If the guy was ready for the NBA, don't you think Barnes would be playing him more than 7 minutes a game? My biggest worry with Pittman is that when he starts picking up playing time, he will begin to get in foul trouble. He was a little better about it late in the year, but the guy picks up a ton of fouls for the minutes he plays. Look at his game log and you will see a lot of games where he plays 5 minutes and picks up 2 or 3 fouls. You might argue that he might not worry about the fouls because he knew his minutes would be limited, but he needs to learn how to throw that big body around without drawing a whistle.
 
you might be right about the PG position...I just don't see Mason or AJ getting more time on the bench next year. unfortunately, there's just a lot of "what if's" involved with both Balbay and Brown RE: next year.
 
Just to clarify, I didn't say Dex was ready for the NBA today. However, assuming he continues to progress with his conditioning, I do think that he can start next year.

You have to admit there is more to Dex than just size. He has a good touch around the basket and actually shoots free throws very well. Also with better conditioning, his defense will improve by allowing him to be in better position to avoid reaching fouls.

I'll stick with my prediction that Pittman will start at the #5 position next year. If he does and get get 20+ minutes a game, I can see him averaging a low double-double. I think that (and his size) will be good enough for him to test the NBA waters at the end of next season.
 
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