Horns in CFP?

S

SouthBayHorn

25+ Posts
It sounds crazy, and it's highly improbable, but it's actually possible. Here's what has to happen (probabilities in parens):

1. tOSU loses to NW (.35)
2. Bama beats GA by at least 17 pts. (.25)
AND, the important part:
3. Horns beat OU, preferably by at least 10 (.30--discounted to account for the margin)
The chances of the above happening (.3 x .25 x .3) are 2.63 percent.

In this scenario, the Horns start at 9. They obviously jump tOSU and OU. They also jump UM and UCF (no QB, unfortunately). The issue is whether they jump GA. With a convincing Bama win, no one will want to see a 1 vs. 4 rematch in the playoff, and the Horns will likely be there.

Obviously this is a highly unlikely scenario, and I'm not sure it would be good for our "overachieving" program to be matched against Bama in a semifinal, only that it's possible.
 
I like your positivity. I’ll be happy with just a win Saturday but what if somehow, someway, we miraculously pull off a tOSU/MI type domination of OU and beat the crap out of them? Shut down their historic offense? Of course it’s a super super SUPER long shot but unlike tOSU, we wouldn’t have had a blowout loss to an unranked team like Purdue. I know. It’s silly with three losses. Think about this though. Wasn’t the intent of the four team playoff to select the four best teams in the country “as of the end of the season?” We lost three games by a total of 9 points. Purdue beat tOSU by 29. Of course, if GA beats Bama, the discussion is moot.

Hey, one can dream. But again, I’ll be thrilled with a one point win. (Perhaps we can arrange to have the same SEC crew that officiated the LSU-TAM game last night work for us Saturday...?)

:deadhorse:
 
It's unlikely the scenario happens at all, and unlikelier still that a three-loss team will be selected ahead of no less than five two-loss Power 5 teams (including Washington State) as well as an undefeated Group of 5 team.
Not happening.
 
SouthBayHorn said:
It sounds crazy, and it's highly improbable, but it's actually possible. Here's what has to happen (probabilities in parens):

1. tOSU loses to NW (.35)
2. Bama beats GA by at least 17 pts. (.25)
AND, the important part:
3. Horns beat OU, preferably by at least 10 (.30--discounted to account for the margin)
The chances of the above happening (.3 x .25 x .3) are 2.63 percent.

In this scenario, the Horns start at 9. They obviously jump tOSU and OU. They also jump UM and UCF (no QB, unfortunately). The issue is whether they jump GA. With a convincing Bama win, no one will want to see a 1 vs. 4 rematch in the playoff, and the Horns will likely be there.

Obviously this is a highly unlikely scenario, and I'm not sure it would be good for our "overachieving" program to be matched against Bama in a semifinal, only that it's possible.
Click to expand...
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance “
 
Besides the impact on CFP voters of UCF losing their star QB, UCF plays Memphis this Saturday in their conference title game.

Earlier this year, in October, Memphis led UCF through 3 quarters, only losing it in the 4th 31-30, so with or without that QB that game is not a given for UCF.

I was looking at the possibilities you suggest leading to an out, out, outside chance of the CFP now for Texas.

Last voting, Texas was at 14, with the standings looking like this:

1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
7 LSU
8 Washington State
9 UCF
10 Ohio State
11 Florida
12 Penn State
13 West Virginia
14 Texas

After the Thanksgiving week games, the following are likely to be passed, as of this moment, by Texas, just by raw records (I know WSU is 10-2 and LSU is 9-3, but with recent losses), that is losses by these teams this past week:

13 WVU
8 WSU
7 LSU

I'm not so sure, before the games this weekend, that the following will be passed by Texas in this early week's CFP balloting (if they do that before the title games coming up):

1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
9 UCF
10 Ohio State
11 Florida
12 Penn State

Sure, Michigan will drop; but more on that in a sec.

Now, if, IF the following happens Saturday:

No. 9 UCF loses to Memphis
No. 1 Alabama beats No. 5 Georgia, I think by any score
No. 2 Clemson beats Pitt in their title game
No. 3 Notre Dame doesn't decide to forfeit the season and bail out
No. 10 Ohio State loses their title game to Northwestern (this is probably the longest shot in all of this)
No. 14 Texas beats Oklahoma

then, all else being the same, based purely on winners and losers, we'd have, IMHO, before CFP voting, using most recent polling, before Thanksgiving:

1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
11 Florida
12 Penn State
14 Texas

The first question is how far down the CFP committee votes Michigan down from last week based on its loss to OSU. Followed closely by the question of how far down the committee would vote Georgia down by losing to Alabama in the SEC game.

The other stickers would be how high UP the committee would value Texas beating OU for the second time in a single season; would they both 1) vote them over Penn State and Florida, at the same time they 2) vote Michigan and Georgia DOWN below Texas based on the OSU loss and prospective loss to Alabama, respectively.

Not out of the question, but of course, the absolute most important thing, regardless of what everyone else does, is to BEAT THE HELL OUT OF OU!!
 
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Texas has zero chance of getting into CFP. Alabama and ND are in period. The Sons of Klem are basically in because the ACC is a horrible Conference. That leaves one spot for Georgia, Meatchicken and tOSU to fight over.
 
The CFP would officially be a sham is a 3-loss team gets in. My questions are: Is the TX-OU winner automatic to Sugar Bowl? Do we go to Alamo Bowl with a loss? So, is it Sugar or bust for NY bowls?
 
Texas was eliminated from the CFP after the Week One loss to Maryland. You have to beat Maryland (See tOSU) to be a serious contender for the CFP.
 
Buck-Horn said:
Is the TX-OU winner automatic to Sugar Bowl? Do we go to Alamo Bowl with a loss? So, is it Sugar or bust for NY bowls?
Click to expand...

We go to the Sugar Bowl with (1) a win over OU, (2) a loss to OU, as long as the Sooners make it into the CFP. Sugar Bowl is Texas/OU vs. Georgia (assuming they lose to Alabama). The bowls are all about ticket sales and eyeballs. A 10-3 Texas, or a 9-4 Texas fits the bill in New Orleans.

God forbid we play Utah in the Alamo bowl. Fans will avoid that like the plague.
 
If Horns get into CFP because everyone else loses except Bama and Clemson, then that would definitely be “backing into” a championship format.
 
SouthBayHorn said:
It sounds crazy, and it's highly improbable, but it's actually possible. Here's what has to happen (probabilities in parens):

1. tOSU loses to NW (.35)
2. Bama beats GA by at least 17 pts. (.25)
AND, the important part:
3. Horns beat OU, preferably by at least 10 (.30--discounted to account for the margin)
The chances of the above happening (.3 x .25 x .3) are 2.63 percent.

In this scenario, the Horns start at 9. They obviously jump tOSU and OU. They also jump UM and UCF (no QB, unfortunately). The issue is whether they jump GA. With a convincing Bama win, no one will want to see a 1 vs. 4 rematch in the playoff, and the Horns will likely be there.

Obviously this is a highly unlikely scenario, and I'm not sure it would be good for our "overachieving" program to be matched against Bama in a semifinal, only that it's possible.
Click to expand...

I'll have what he's smoking. We are not getting in with 3 losses
 
The question for the Big XII is who is the #2 team should ou somehow end up in the CFP? Is it Texas because they played in the CCG or WVa because they tied for #2 in the regular season but beat Texas?
 
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