Help Me Understand

T

Truck's Son

500+ Posts
I know this topic has been brought up before but I'm still confused. Looking at our roster, we're set to have 74 scholarship players (if you include Marquis Goodwin) in 2010. We're allowed 85 - correct? With 19 guys already committed and a high likelihood that we'll get another 3 or 4, that adds up to 96 or 97 scholarship players on our roster in 2010. Does that mean Mack is expecting 11 or 12 guys currently on the roster to leave b/n now and then?

Please tell me my math is wrong because if that's the case, that's really depressing. Sorry, but I can't get excited at that much attrition over one or two seasons, even if it means we're bringing in blue chip players to replace them. My math has to be wrong I think?
 
currently, we have:
seniors: 14
juniors: 21
soph: 21
RS fresh: 10
TR fresh: 21

take out the seniors, and 1 of the freshmen is marquise goodwin, who may never count against the 85 scholarship limit.. that leaves 72 on scholarship next year. add in the 19 already committed, and we'll have 91. i still think we take 5 more, so that would mean 96.

where's the attrition coming from? well, i think at least 1 RB from the bunch of Hills and Newton. possibly 2 WR from Payne and Webber if they are not progressing this spring. possibly a guy like dravannnti johnson if he doesn't get high enough on the depth chart. monroe is a grade risk, humphrey's status is up in the air.. irby's status is up in the air. is howell gonna make is SAT score? lots of question marks.
 
That sucks. I understand attrition happens everywhere, but a dozen guys seems like waaay too much. Aren't we suppossed to have a 'family' atmosphere? Kind of hard for that to develop when so many guys are coming and going.

And let me make this clear - I'm not bitching about our recruiting. I have no doubt that our staff is bringing in some really special players. But, as a fan, don't you have to temper any optimism you have for these incoming guys if you consider that a good chunk of them will be out of the program before they graduate? I mean, Christ, some of these guys we're expecting to leave were very highly rated recruits. Makes it hard for me to get really excited about recruiting.
 
The main gripe I have is that the NCAA should tell schools no more than 25 new scholarships a year no matter how many they have on the rosters. The roster needs to be increased to 100 players because that way you can have all 25 signed players still on scholarship per year. Of course I am sure this idea is totally ridiculous and that I am overlooking something.
 
One obstacle, an additional 15 scholarships in football equals adding 15 athletic scholarships in Women's sports or dropping 15 scholarships in other men's sports. (Title IX)
 
When it comes to numbers, trust what Mack Brown is doing. He has always been able to sign as many has he wanted within 25 and keep the scholarship numbers within 85. There is always attrition due to transfers or injuries
 
ya, im just gonna let mack worry about those numbers...i do hope we have scholarships left for a few these guys:

lache seastrunk
jackson jeffcoat
darius white
adrian white
jordan hicks
demarco cobbs
reggie wilson
jake matthews
 
They often allow for a few extra due to attrition which will bring it down to 85. Right now they are at 19 which is about 6 over. My guess is they don't add 5 more but just add 2-3 more.

My other guess is that there will be more attrition this year than most other years. In 05 there were 3 kids that never even made it to the fall and that was a small class. Same thing could happen and perhaps Mack knows more than we do there. There is the injury to Humphrey which could be serious. 2-3 guys on current roster that could be grade risks or losses due to playing time. You add up those #s and you could have 6-7 losses right there. Then who knows maybe you lose a junior after the 09 season.

But bottomline is there will be a bit of attrition this coming year. There just has to be.
 
Hadn't heard that on Apo.

There are some young WRs who won't want to go but may get a nudge.

There will unfortunately be 1-2 surprise medicals.
 
Keep in mind that this attrition is from here until August 2010 - that's when the bulk of these guys would report.

That is quite a ways away.
 
What Fritz said. With a regular loss of 4-5 guys a year with injuries, grades, or even going pro early, (which at Texas didn't used to happen), two years from now, that's 8-10. Some of these kids might either fail to qualify or change their minds.
 
MB has signed one of the fewest aggregate number of recruits over the last 5 years of any team in the top 50 or so of college football. His numbers compare with teams like Stanford, Notre Dame, California, Northwestern, etc.

This indicates to me that MB does a great job with attrition.

It also means that our recruiting class rankings are artificially low compared to the teams that sign an extra 3-4 recruits each year.
 
i do, but unfortunately it doesn't transcribe very well into a post. I will try though. Amazing how hight the SEC is......

Alabama 27.8
Arizona 22.8
Arizona State 23.6
Arkansas 26.4
Auburn 26.6
Boston College 20
California 21.8
Clemson 21.2
Colorado 23.2
Florida 22
Florida State 24.8
Georgia 22.4
Georgia Tech 19.2
Illinois 23.8
Iowa 21.6
Iowa State 25.4
Kansas 23.6
Kansas State 27.8
Kentucky 26.8
LSU 23
Maryland 23.2
Miami 22.2
Michigan 21.6
Michigan State 23.2
Minnesota 22.6
Mississippi State 27.8
Missouri 24.4
N.C. State 24
Nebraska 25.4
North Carolina 24.8
Northwestern 19.4
Notre Dame 20.2
Ohio State 19.6
Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma State 24.6
Ole Miss 29.4
Oregon 23.8
Oregon State 25.4
Penn State 21
Pittsburgh 22.8
Purdue 22.2
Rutgers 22.6
South Carolina 26.8
South Florida 26
Southern Miss 25.8
Stanford 18.4
TCU 19.8
Tennessee 23.4
Texas 20.8
Texas A&M 24
Texas Tech 24.6
UCF 23.4
UCLA 20.8
USC 20.2
Utah 22.6
Virginia 22.6
Virginia Tech 25.2
Washington 21.2
West Virginia 25.6
Wisconsin 21.8
Average 23.35
 
From 2005 through and including 2009 it appears that Texas has signed the fewest recruits among Big XII schools.

Ranked from fewest to highest.........
1. Texas (104)
2. Colorado (116)
3. Kansas (118)
4. Oklahoma & ATM (120)
6. Missouri (122)
7. Texas Tech (123)
8. Oklahoma St. (124)
9. Nebraska & Iowa St. (127)
10. Kansas St. (141)

Looks like Brown knows exactly what he is doing.
 
I would also suspect maybe one or two of our current commitments rescind their commitment, depending on who else commits.
 
Mack's 2nd recruiting class that included Sims, Redding, Babers,etc. had me scared that we were going to be in trouble with 27 or so offer/commits.

I think one or 2 enrolled early and some either had academic issues or may have even gray shirted.

Somehow, it worked out as it always does. My guess is some kids may have already had a talk with Mack and are going through this semester with intent to transfer but not publicly announcing it in case circumstances might change with an unexpected rise up the depth chart etc. that allows them to keep options open.
 
Generally things work out where we have 80 players on scholarship at the start of fall practice before Mack hands out a couple to walkons. A few years ago someone figured out that the average number of scholarship players at the start of the season in Div1A was 79.

The bottom line is that historically coaches underestimate their attrition by 5 or 6 each year and end up with unused scholarships. If Mack wants to take 5 or 6 more than it seems he should right now, then things will probably work out fine.

Looking at the size of the junior and sophomore classes he will likely have to take the maximum 25 those years, so it is smart for him to try to bring the total as close to 85 as he can in the fall of 2010.
 
It is normal to expect some players to transfer. Scholarship or not, players who are told will ride the bench won't hang around. They leave--they quit school, or transfer. Some guys, due to injury, or an overestimation of their talent, or a failure to adjust to college life don't make it. That's the way it is--hey things are nicer now--read the Chapters in Meat on the hoof about running off the guys they don't want. That is really ugly.
 
If we end the '09 season with about 60 non-Seniors on scholarship (coming back for '10), Mack can count the early-enrollees (Jan. '10) in the '09 class. If there are five or so, he can still sign another 20 for the '10 class (25 total), and figuring on attrition in the summer, still stay within 85 total.

Like another poster said, when Sept. 1 rolls around, we always seem to have a few stray scholarships to reward a walk-on with. So I don't think it's a major concern.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top