Hats off to Nate Silver!

[DFWAg]

Wow, 50 out of 50 states predicted correctly. I read he got the fiftieth state correct by

Nate Silver

I did not realize that he live adjusted his prediction model right to the end. That dilutes the "50 for 50" hit rate just a bit. It is like adjusting your probability of rain when you see it heading towards you from a block away. But still, he was clearly the most accurate of prognosticators out there. A triumph for statistical rationality over propaganda for sure.

 

[Michtex]

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[Horns11]

The funny thing is that he's not doing anything particularly special. He's averaging out polls and weighting them by turnout, perception of bias, etc. For everyone on the right who accuses him of being a leftist because the NYT owns his blog now, he actually evens out his left sources to the right.

Moneyball for politics.

Just another example of why stats and math need to be less feared by the pundits.

 

[pasotex]

Florida was the interesting one that he got right. The rest of it seemed pretty obvious.

I guess Virginia was the other sort of wild card.

Ohio and Nevada were the Obama firewall states and they never really were strongly in play for Romney.

I think the news media did a terrible disservice by sensationalizing the election rather than covering the electoral college properly and showing that the race was not all that close in the key states. Obama had this election provided everyone turned out and voted.

 

[Roger35]

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[pasotex]

Silver adjusts his model up until right before the election depending on the polling data. He also has other components and has a now cast and an election day forecast. It is an interesting model and one with which he frequently tinkers (and writes about).

 

[Dionysus]

It’s not so hard to look impressive with a little hard work when you consider what passes for journalism and analysis in our culture.