Has another team been hurt more by early entry?

B

bullseye-35

25+ Posts
This isn't a question of total numbers or draft position. What I'm asking is subjective. Is there another program in the last 8-10 yrs with more "woulda, coulda, shoulda" regarding players staying 1 more year ? It would seem the very top programs had the depth to reload, while lesser programs may not have the talent for early entry. Every year we're saying, "If only player x had stayed, we'd be so solid."

I can't list the depth chart of other programs for the last ten years, so I wonder if someone else can suggest another program hurt more by early entry into the NBA.
 
I've always thought the exact same thing. UNC, Duke, UConn, even Kansas and Memphis...they usually reload. We aren't at that level just yet.

There are 3 or 4 years where we would have been one of the preseason favorites to take it all.

03-04 if TJ came back
06-07 if LA, DG, or PJ came back
07-08 if KD came back
08-09 if DJ came back

I really don't think anyone else can say that.
 
don't forget Miles and Evans in years we lacked depth at the position. I guess it somewhat feeds on itself. If certain players stayed, we woudn't have been able to recruit more talent to leave early.
 
I don't agree at all.

UNC has done well, but they've lost plenty to early entry. They just happened to win a national championship in the meantime.

Same thing with UConn, only early entry has hit them pretty hard lately. Not making the tournament followed by an exit in the first round doesn't sound like reloading to me.

Duke lost in the Sweet Sixteen three years ago as a #1 seed, then lost last year in the first round to VCI, and then this year they struggled versus Belmont only to lose to West Virginia as a #2 seed in the second round.

That's reloading?

Kansas was fortunate Brandon Rush tore his ACL, otherwise he wouldn't have been on that team. While KU would have still been good, they didn't have another true wing player that could come even close to taking Rush's place. They would have gone with more 3 guard lineups --- which isn't necessarily a bad thing with Robinson, Chalmers, and Collins as your 3 guards, but it certainly would have made Kansas a much less formidable team.

They were also somewhat fortunate Darrell Arthur didn't leave after one year. Although it would have been a dumb decision, there was some thoughts along those lines.

While Kansas had a spectacular season when they made it to the national championship game only to lose to Syracuse, and were arguably the better team other than horrendous free throw shooting and McNamara having a torrid shooting spree in the second half (although that's not exactly complete and utter luck --- the kid was clutch his entire career), if you'll recall, that's a team that went without Dwight Gooden, who left for the NBA after two years.

Let's not forget they lost in the first round two years in a row as protected seeds.

And Memphis? Please. They've been hit with early entry more than any other program out there. They earn a high seed partly by playing in a crappy conference that they absolutely dominate, and it's only been in the last 3 years that they've been enjoying tournament success.

Texas, on the other hand, is the program that I'd argue has been reloading every year. True, UT hasn't been reaching those highest of highs. They made the Final Four in 2003, but none since, and certainly no championship games or national championships.

Still, they're making the tournament every year, winning the first round game every year but the injury plagued/Tucker academic issue season, and they've made two separate Elite Eights and another couple of Sweet Sixteens. 5 Sweet Sixteens in 7 years isn't bad at all.

There's also an opportunity cost people love to forget about. Sure, it would have been nice if some of those nonexistent fantasy land what if scenarios had come about, but there's a very good chance if some of those players had stayed, the team would have changed in composition as the decision to stay impacted other players who chose to come aboard. There's a lot of "I want my cake and I want to be able to eat it, too!" that goes around in these discussions.

I like where the program is. They keep bringing in this caliber of player, hopefully the dice roll right and it ends up being the Longhorns' year one season. I like that they keep putting themselves in position to be in the hunt. After that, a certain amount of luck is always involved...but luck isn't even a factor for most programs, because they're simply not in the position to bring in the types of players UT does, nor do they develop their players as well once they do reach campus.

As far as I'm concerned, UT's record in this regard over the years has been envious, not something to whine about.
 
SLX,

I think you misinterpreted my tone. Maybe it was poor writing, but I'm not lamenting. Losing early entry players means you have early entry quality players. It's more of an academic quandry, as Barnes and staff have done a fine job adjusting to players each year. Bill Simmons aside, Barnes did a great job with the 06-07 team as you have described previously. This does not eliminate the "woulda, coulda" of missing the players that left.

You used the example of Brandon Rush as a lucky non-entry for Kansas. My point is that it seems we have opposite afew times. I would argue that TJ's spinal stenosis caused an unlucky early entry for us. My point is not just non-seniors leaving. It's players leaving (sometimes unexpectedly), when there's little depth at the position behind them.


UConn and Memphis are the teams I could think of that might trump us. Memphis' defections were entirely expected, however. I think this is important as it gives the coaches time to plan for a replacment. I can't list any other fdepth charts to say "If player x had stayed, he would have filled a major hole." Are Duke's troubles due to early entry or due to recruiting the wrong types of players? It seems when someone leaves at Duke or UNC, there's some hyped stud waiting to take that specific spot. Maybe the young guy doesn't play up to expectation, but there seems to be a line of succession.

We are now building considerable depth. However, I remember the time when Evans left and everyone said "we have no one we can expect to perform at a similar level at that position." Just like if James left this year, it seems like we lost guys at the position with the least depth. James staying for us, in terms of matchups, is much like Rush staying for Kansas last year. In previous offseasons, we were discussing how to juggle the lineup to make up for the departure of a James-type player with no one similar on the team.

The question is one of curiosity. It is an offseason "what if discussion," not a critique of the staff.

So, do either Memphis or UConn have more "what if" teams than the Horns in the last decade? Is there another program that should be considered?
 
My dearest bullseyes and SLex: I think both of y'all are right, but I've been drinking and am going to bed. Maybe I'll write more tomorrow.
 
Ohio State has been really slammed by early entry. First, they lost out on LeBron James. That alone is bigger than our entire group of players lost. Then you factor in Oden and Connely. That's two #1 draft picks in like 4 years. This year they lose Koufos. I have to think they would have won at least one MNC with James. He would have dominated from day 1 on an epic scale.
 
Just because teams like UConn and Duke haven't been successful lately, it doesnt mean they haven't been pulling in multiple All-Americans in the process. My main point was that most of our early entries seem to take place at inopportune times...when we are THAT close.
 
My point is that I think it's a big whine people dwell on too much. Obviously that's my opinion, and everyone is entitled to their own. Due to the sheer volume of posts about it --- not only on this board, but other UT boards which discuss basketball as well --- it's apparent that an overwhelming number of fans enjoy the self flagellation involved in picking apart the various 'what if?' scenarios which hypothetically would have led to a national championship. I find it all extremely ridiculous, but whatever.

As far as UConn and Duke, my whole point is that a big reason they HAVEN'T been as successful lately, is due to all kinds of ramifications regarding early entry, both directly through players leaving early, and indirectly through Krzyzewski seemingly going after talent that's more likely to stick around a couple of years or more, especially after he was burned so bad with Shaun Livingston.

You're arguing Texas has suffered so much due to early entry. I'm saying it's part and parcel with being a program at this level, and that frankly in many ways Texas has weathered the complications involved with players leaving early better than many other programs.
 
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