Handicapping Omaha

[tholly]

Though a huge UT fan, I struggle with why we deserved top seed overall based on our season. Our pitching willl keep us in most games. Our bats however are likely to force us to win a couple of low scoring games for us to have a chance a winning it all. I'd say Fullerton would be a bad team to try to hold down to 3 or less. Following that LSU and N Car. I think ArizSt and Virginia are similar to us with good pitching/defense. We need to handle S Miss and, if we're fortunate to advance, hope whichever pitcher faces N Car is really on. In a 3 games series vs Full or LSU it would be really tough unless we can put 6-8 runs up a couple of times. Of course maybe Wood can throw about 18 no hit innings

 

[FWHORN]

Good pitching wins championships and that is where Texas has the advantage of the best staff in the CWS going for it. But that said even great pitching cant win without timely hitting. This staff is capable of holding any team to 3-4 runs and the question really is what do the bats do. If our staff has an off night I worry that we cant win shootouts. This is so remeniscent of 05 its scary and if we have a similar performance in Omaha the a 7th NC is a distinct possibility.

Right now if you had to rank teams in order of liklihood of winning I think CSF is probably the favorite, Texas and UNC second/third; LSU and Arizona State 4/5; Virginia 6, though I like the wahoos as a darkhorse out of the other side; Arkie 7 and USM 8.

 

[GemStateJim]

Given this thread's title, the absence of odds in the OP is surprising.

I still like the Cavs as a darkhorse.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

I give the Horns an 8-1 chance of winning just like all the others. We have the pitching to be dangerous. Our offense needs to show up the entire tourney though.

 

[tholly]

OK, I started to put my odds but thought I'd get bashed. I'd put CalFull 3-1 / LSU 4-1 / N Car & Tex 6-1 / Ariz St & Va 7-1 / Ark 10-1/ S Miss maybe 16-1. I would say Ark seems to be really hitting well the last 5 games.....

 

[petscii]

I like Arizona State to win it all.

So where would one go online to place a dollar or two on a gentlemanly sporting event?

 

[LonghornsWin]

I think we have a real advantage with MS as our first game. They have never been to Omaha before and they will have lights in their eyes.

I might be tempted to pitch Green in that game and then Ruffin in the all-important game two (assuming we win game 1).

Augie finished #1, #2, and #1 the last three times we made it to Omaha, so I think talent is only half of the story. He will have the guys loose and focused.

 

[orangeblack&gold]

I don't worry about the bats because they always seem to come around just enough when we get to Nirvana. Long as we have that dang salty pitching staff, we'll be a tough out for any of the three in our Bracket and for whoever pops their head out of the other side.

Oh, and we've got a pretty solid Captain at the helm of the USS Longhorn.

 

[Huckleberry]

My preview (with lots of numbers)

 

[Barton Hills]

The odds are 1:1 that I will quit my job if the Horns make the Final and I'm unable to attend due to work.

The odds are also 1:1 that my wife will not like this.

 

[Orangeblood]

"Augie finished #1, #2, and #1 the last three times we made it to Omaha..."

Actually, not quoite.

2002 - #1
2003 - tied for #3 (knocked out by Rice in elimination game)
2004 - #2
2005 - #1

So, #3, #2, and #1 in last 3 visits. Don't know why people tend to forget that we were there in '03.

 

[s102r18]

Boyd's probabilities show CSF with almost another cakewalk to the finals. Meanwhile Texas and UNC have have roughly equal odds (30.8%/27.6%) of making the final, a good distance behind favorite ASU (39.1%) on the other side of the bracket. Southern Miss may surprise, of course, but if Florida had made it our side of the bracket would really have been projected to be a monstrous dog fight.