Games that might eliminate bubble teams

B

bierce

1,000+ Posts
Here we go with bubble reducing games.

San Diego leading Gonzaga by 9 with less than 3 minutes to go.

But Davidson now pulled away from Elon. Elon had cut it to 5 with about 4 minutes to go. Davidson now up .

(It's possible that the only bubble team elminated by South Alabama losing will turn out to be South Alabama.)
 
I don't know if St. Mary's is a lock now. RPI 38. SOS 137. They beat Drake to open the season, but have just one other win against RPI top 50.
 
St. Mary's has wins over Drake, SD, Oregon, Gonzaga and (as Doug Gottlieb pointed out) has no bad losses. I think they're in.
 
I don't think they get many points for having a win over San Diego in three tries. San Diego has one non-conference win over a team with a winning record OR an RPI better than 180 (they beat Kentucky when Kentucky was stinking up everywhere).
 
Besides the 2 losses to SD, here are St. Mary's losses:
Texas (26-5)
Gonzaga (25-6)
Kent St (25-6)
So Illinois (17-14)

I'd say their resume is as good as (if not better than) aTm, Syracuse, Kentucky, Arizona St or VaTech. And VCU might as well start thinking about the NIT.
RPI: 52
SOS: 151
vs. Top 50: 0-2
 
OK, so St. Mary's bubble is made out of plexiglass, while aggy's is made out of soap. I'll agree to that much.
 
San Diego will draw a 14-seed and get absolutely killed against someone like Louisville. They definitely benefitted from their tournament being in the Slim Gym (Jenny Craig Pavillion in SD).
 
The thing that makes me seriously question whether St. Mary's is a lock is the strength of the West Coast Conference--14th in conference rpi. Outside of the three teams mentioned (and SD has an rpi around 90), the conference is putrid (rpis of 187, 206, 269, 299, 309).

I just don't know if a conference that weak gets a third team. particularly since the 4 conferences rated just ahead of it (C-USA, Horizon, Mid-American, Colonial Athletic) are strong possibilities for only one tournament team each.

I think St. Mary's is deserving. I'd much rather seem them rewarded than an Arizona team that went 8-10 in the Pac 10, and while it went 5-6 against rpi top 50 teams, it also went just 5-5 against rpi 51-100 and 3-2 against 101-150.
 
Tonight's games:

Cleveland State against Butler. Butler is a lock. Cleveland State is not in. They split during the year with Butler outscoring Cleveland State by one in the combined scores.

IUPUI against Oral Roberts. Won't matter. Winner is in, loser is out.

Midd. Tenn. State against W. Kentucky. Probably won't matter. W. Kentucky is rpi 44, but 0 wins over rpi top 100, so they are probably out if they don't win. South Alabama, with two wins over W. Kentucky, and a win over Miss. State probably has a better chance.
 
If a team was 27-5, had an RPI of 58, beat two tourny teams, won the regular season but DIDN'T win their confernce tourny...could that qualify for a at-large?
 
Saint Mary's has been flirting with the bottom of the polls all year, which raised their national profile, helping their chances. Remember, Joe Lunardi and Andy Katz are not on the committee. It's a bunch of fat old AD's. RPI stats and such are important, but perception also plays a role that is often not recognized among the prognosticators. Regional affiliations also play a role. Somebody from the WAC or Mountain West usually sneaks in under the radar instead of one of the big conference bubble teams from back east that people have been talking about. St. Mary's benefits from that trend as well.
 
Yeah I was talking about SFA. I'm not sure why every site I've seen has them at 21-4. They are 25-4, thus why I said they could end up 27-5. That's a damn good record for any team, but it'll be hard for them to get an at large, if they needed it. And I kind of doubt they could get an at large, just because of their conference and their lack of any bball history.
 
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