From the Oil Drum

M

Musburger

500+ Posts
I have no technical knowledge whatsoever about the oil industry. There has been much written over the past month about the BP fiasco in the gulf. Today, I stumbled upon the most lucid, illuminating analysis I've yet read. It's interesting. It's terrifying. It will take you 20 to 25 minutes to read, but it's worth the time.

www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967
 
I have been reading "The Oil Drum" and The Energy Bulletin daily since this began. These guys are true experts and the debates are not only technically intense (and sometimes over my head) but enormously interesting. We're talking drillers with 30 years experience drilling offshore etc...

It's because of the things that I have been reading on these two sites that I said last night that this is far worse than Ixtoc.

Today the estimates as to how much oil is escaping was raised to perhaps as much as 60,000 barrels per day ---- and certainly more than 35,000 barrels per day. Assuming a split down the middle we're looking at 48,000 barrels per day ---- and we're still two months out from any possible solution.

Ixtoc was 3 million barrels and happened in 160 feet of water.

You guys do the math.
 
I, have an applied experience in pressures, hydraulics, etc... none in the oil patch. But it seems the question is - re: the relief wells:

If the well bore is ruptured, won't the relief wells have to punch thru between the rupture and the well head? If not, I assume there is a large enough pump to attach to the relief bore to divert the pressure away from the top of the BOP. Or does anyone really know the condition of the well - downhole?

I read on theoildrum.com that the deep GOM formations are inherently young, unstable, and fracturable. Seems a tacit reason to deem the situation very dangerous, not to mention BPs' bastardizing the whole well design.
 
Between the collossal oil cesspool that that has formed (and continues to grow) in the Gulf and the daily drug/gang war violence in Mexico, it seems everything just south of Texas is turning into a giant hell hole.
 
Toki, the concept on the relief well is fairly simple. The basic principle is that you attempt to intersect the original wellbore. Once intersected, you pump a heavy weight mud and allow the hydrostatic pressure of the mud to kill the well. Eventually, the mud will flow down the relief well and then back up the original well. You'll continue pumping it until the heavy mud has made the entire loop back up to the mudline of the original well. You'll probably continue to pump additional mud until you're confident that the mud within the original wellbore has a very limited amount of entrained gas. Once you stop pumping, then the well should be static. The mud weight that you choose should account for "riser margin" which is basically seatwater weight (8.33 ppg for seawater versus 20+ ppg for the heavy mud) from the mudline to sea level. It's not that difficult to calculate.

So, the reality is that if they can intersect the original wellbore, they will have a very good chance of killing the well. There are some concerns with this (fracturing the formation, etc), but there are also things that can be done to the mud to mitigate some of these risks.

Hope this helps.
 
Smoke, let me ask you this from a very simplistic standpoint. What if the relief well kill process does not work? What if the writer in Oil Drum referenced here is basically correct? What are we left with then? Do we have to estimate what oil there is in this reservoir to determine how large this spill will be? I just wonder if the ultimate answer will be to drill into that reservoir (with good well designs) as much as possible to properly and completely produce that reservoir as quickly as we can to eventually stop the source of this spill. Now, if that is the ultimate solution, should we not be starting right away? What if all the rigs capable of drilling such wells are taken to some other part of the world due to the moratorium?
 
I've read the oil drum for years- I love that site! Some of the smartest people around who post in depth, and free analysis.

While on the site- search peak oil, or global supply forecasts. You'll get the detailed analysis of every major energy organization in the world, their analysis, and composite analysis showing their forecasts (and everyone else's) of peak oil.
 
Oilfield, I don't share the concerns as the poster from oildrum quite to the same degree. He's correct that there are some integrity concerns with the original wellbore up near the mudline. But I would challenge him to find an example of a properly intersected relief well that was unsuccessful. I'm not saying oildrum isn't a very good website, or disputing that the original poster isn't very knowledgable, but relief wells work in my experience - they just take a long time. Occasionally, multiple relief wells are needed. But there are many things that can be pumepd down the relief well in addition to mud to help slow/contain the leak - cross-linked pills, etc.

I'm still not certain why they would not attempt to pull the original LMRP and replace it with another - then close the pipe rams on a large workstring and then produce up the workstring & process the production. At least this method would result in no additional hydrocarbon leaking into the GOM.
 
Oh my god! This is far, far worse than anyone is imagining.
We are about to pay the piper for relying on oil for so long.
That is terrifying.
 
Cotton,

I read about 5 lines of that article and could tell the guy had no background in drilling/completions. The terminology he is using sounds like it's right out of the media. "Valves on the cap"??? "Directional Wells"??? He's clueless - just spewing more filth and hoping people will gobble it up like it's worth the paper it's written on (or bandwidth in this case). I'm not saying that he doesn't raise a few good points, but I wouldn't put much faith in that article...not much at all.
 
The BHO Administration needs to have these guys on their "Panel"
rolleyes.gif


In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
That panel is nothing but a rhetoric machine. It'll produce nothing but words. No one with any real technical expertise, but a lot of people who are of a like mind and like axes to grind. Typical.
 
I have been out of Petroleum Engineering for 20 years and I probably know more than most of those "experts" on the panel (Engineers not included)
brickwall.gif
 
That panel is made up of exactly what people in our industry feared it would be. IT's simply an extension of the current adminisration and likely the pre-determined outcome will be either ban on deepwater drilling in GOM or a significant reduction in drilling permits approved. Drilling in Alaska is almost certainly done for the next 5-10 years.

It's a cluster, and I have no sympathy for BP or the WH. Both failed to properly act early on, and they're paying big time now.....
 
OK, it that link is not a good source, explain why the mud injection failed. They seem to have knowledge of that procedure.
And is it a toss-up as to whether the relief wells will work? The site seems to believe that.
And what exactly should the white house have done to end this problem? There doesn't seem to be any possible way, and even the relief wells may do nothing.
 
The top kill supposedly did not work because they believe it ruptured a burst disk in the 16" casing. Companies often run a burst disk in their outer strings to avoid Trapped Annular Pressure in those strings. The burst disk is set such that it will burst prior to catastrophically bursting the 16" casing. Other methods exist to eliminate TAP (trapped annular pressure), but the burst disk is common and a cheap option. I don't know the specifics of their well design, but the burst disk is probably about 1000' BML (below mudline). The put it up higher so that it doesn't get covered by cement.

I still feel the relief wells will work if they can intersect the original wellbore. I wouldn't say I'm 100% confident - this is the oilfield - NOTHING is 100%. But I would say 95% confident that they will work.
 
See link - another video of the relief well effort.

Relief Well Video

As you can see, they're getting close to being on bottom. They spudded the well on May 2nd, and I had previously indicated in other threads that it should take around 60 days for a well at this depth with perhaps another 5-10 for ranging/intersection. Additionally, I'm still quite confident that they will be able to kill the well (unlike the article from oil drum). Happy viewing....
 
Not at all burned out. So there is no drill pipe, only the "admiral's drill pipe" ie: the production liner. The relief procedure is drawn so matter of factly that it is hard to visualize failure.
 
That is what "didn't fully materialize" means. That means part of it did materialize. This was supposed to be the greatest ecological disaster in our history. And it obviously isn't going to be. Which is a good thing.
 
Yeah, the Oil Drum doesn't seem to be a very informed source. Sorry I believed they knew what they were talking about. They sounded pretty sure the whole upper part would blow out and there would be no way to plug it at that point.
That will be my first and last viewing of their writing.
Not that this isn't a very bad event, but their analysis was way off.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

NEW: Pro Sports Forums

Cowboys, Texans, Rangers, Astros, Mavs, Rockets, etc. Pro Longhorns. The Chiefs and that Swift gal. This is the place.

Pro Sports Forums

Recent Threads

Back
Top