Conference Realignment - Prediction

[87Horn]

Ok, while I still prefer the PAC-16 if the Big XII collapses, I'm going to take the plunge and predict how the major conferences will be alligned in 2012 and 2014.

I'm also going to drink the PBC purple kool-aid and say that Texas plays in the B1G in 3 years. I know it sounds crazy on many levels, but a few things lead me to this conclusion: great athletes, except maybe baseball; UT improves its academic standing even more (which is actually important to our university unlike others seeing only $ signs and mythical top ten matchups made up in their heads); and hooking up with ND which I also expect to join the B1G when this realignment mess is all said and done for the 21th century.

Culturally, this is a BIG leap, but I think conference membership in this century will be first and foremost about television contracts. The fact that the B1G still boasts some the nation's largest fanbases, historic rivalries and TV markets bodes well for positioning itself in the future.

Adding Texas would also be a good move for the conference because it also gives the B1G access into the large and growing Texas markets.

Add ND to this with their national fan base, and the B1G gets a big boost to an already impressive leauge. 13 of 14 in the AAU, the five largest fan bases in the country in OSU, PSU, UM, ND and UT.

But I don't think the B1G stops at 14, despite Delaney's reported preference of quality over quantity.

This is why I think it will add schools with geographic proximity to Texas, rather than going East. I believe adding ND only would give them a significant boost into NY and the rest of the NE markets.

As for ND and Texas, Deloss has said relatively little about this whole soap opera of conference swapping, but he did say something along the lines of 'one thing we’ve learned through all of this is Notre Dame is a friend' and that' and adding that he wouldn’t rule out UTand ND one day being in the same conference.' I try not to read too much into this, but I can't help but think there has been some serious behind the scenes discussions with ND about the future.

MO's latest temper tantrum and thumb sucking notwithstanding, I still think that they do not go to the SEC as most of their fans seem to be howling for. Their administration still has visions B1G sugar plum fairies dancing in their heads at night. I believe they will hold out for this hope. I say they get their wish in 2014.

The kicker for some that may already be laughing at my prediction is that I think the other team getting the B1G to 16 will be: Kansas. I realize that is a major strech because it all seems to be about football, but I think there are factors that mitigate this somewhat in the case of KU, their basketball program and their AAU membership.

I also think UT secretly would like to have them in the B1G if we do go. It keep some semblance of BigXII flavor in the new league and may reduce the travel time for athletes, especially in Olympic sports somewhat. Plus, if PBC can be at all believed, UT will have some say in which other new members are invited. If true, I think we would do well to consider advocating for KU and MU, despite Mizzou and UT not having the best of relationships at the moment.

My first choice for B1G conference mates, for selfish reasons, would be the okies, but it doesn't look like the B1G is interested in them. Plus, I think we can always go back to the RRR as an out of conference game. Not optimal, but doable.

Anyway, here's my prediction on conference allignment, in 2012 and then again 2014. I don't think this merry go round stops for a couple of years (thanks, aggy), so fasten your seat belts.

2012
Big XII
East
KSU, KU, MO, ISU, Louisville, TCU, ND**
West
BYU*, TTU, OU, OSU, BU, UT
* football only
** Olympic sports only
(Divisions are not used for sports other than FB)br>
SEC
East
WVU, UK, Tenn, UGA, USC, FL, Vanderbilt
West
AU, UA, UM, MSU, LSU, Ark, UTAM

B1G
Same
Pac-12
Same
ACC
Same

2014
Big XII ??
BU, TCU, KSU, ISU, BYU ??

SEC AQ
East
WVU, UK, Tenn, UGA, USC, FL, Vanderbilt, South Florida
West
AU, UA, UM, MSU, LSU, Ark, UTAM, Louisville

B1G AQ
East Pod
OSU, PSU, IU, NW

Great Lakes Pod
UM, MSU, ND, PU

Upper Midwest Pod
Minn, Wisc, IL, IA

Great Plains Pod
NU, MU, KU, UT

PAC-16 AQ
UW, WSU, UO, OSU, Stan, CAL, UCLA, USC, UA, ASU, Utah, CU, OU, Ok St U, TTU, Boise State

ACC AQ
Miami, FSU, GT, Clem, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, VT, UVA, MD, PITT, RU, SU, UCONN, BC

Conf USA ?
MWC ?
WCC ?
MAC ?


I know that So FLA and Louisville look somewhat laughable for the SEC, but if the ACC shut them out as their trying to do, UT goes to the B1G with MO and KU and OU/OSU go to the PAC, they suddenly may not have all the choices they seem to think they do.

Anyway, MO could announce for the SEC in a week and blow this prediction up, but in the end I still think Texas winds up in the B1G. Whether that's the best fit or not, time will tell but we will be fine where ever we land.

Hook 'Em.

 

[Santafe]

While I also believe that UT will join the Big Ten in 2014 (with Notre Dame), I would not necessarily rule out OU entering the Big Ten. Obviously, OU would have to divorce Oklahoma State and want to join the Big Ten. But if OU were to apply with UT, I think the Big Ten would have to seriously consider adding OU because OU would make the Big Ten a stronger football conference and deny the SEC another national football power. But yes, if academics and research are more important to the Big Ten, then OU is doomed.

 

[XOVER]

I agree with both of you.

I could see Kansas and Missouri to the B1G, but only after Texas and ND. Therefore, I don't see how MO gets there since it will take MO to the SEC to finally crack open the B12 (given OU's noteworthy failure to achieve the breakup by being snubbed by the PAC).

I could also see Texas and OU, and maybe Kansas, to the B1G.

Or any combination of those 4 teams (but only for 3 spots).

At heart, the B1G is a midwestern league. After ND, I could see the B1G picking up the pieces of the B12, sure.

But, if Texas and ND did agree to go to the B1G, without other teams, I think the B1G would stop at 14 for awhile, if only to see what might eventually shake out to the ACC. Teams like maybe MY/VA, VA/VT, or GT maybe.

 

[ViperHorn]

Pickens and the Oklahoma Legislature will make sure that ou doesn't go anywhere without OSU so there isn't any reason to dream up scenarios without those two together.

 

[XOVER]

I do tend to agree with you ViperHorn.

However, if Texas left the B12 for, say, the B1G, and if the SEC turned down an OU/OSU combo, but left the door open to OU alone (or if the B1G somehow left the door open), those pols in Oklahoma would, I think, agree to separation to keep their flagship relevant.

OSU may be happy in a league with TCU, Louisville, BYU, and the others, but I suspect OU would not. Nor would the majority of Oklahoma pols and OU fans. Therefore, if OU/OSU were rejected by all 3 major conferences, which I think they would, then I think the Oklahoma pols would come around to a separation, allowing OU to join one of the major conferences by itself.

Still, OU is certainly locked for now, and may well be locked in the future.

 

[jdelatorre]

The PAC and BIG are partners in the Rose Bowl. Any possibility that they take each other into consideration as realignment continues? If UT, TT, OU, OSU go Pac, Big could add ND and schools from the east. If Texas, ND, mizzou and OU go BIG, PAC would have to consider OSU, KU, KSU and Tech. Not exactly an even split.

 

[87Horn]

I just don't think there's any chance that the B1G would consider OU on the basis of academics.

Hook 'Em.

 

[jdelatorre]

Agreed, but it would solve lots of problems for us (travel, RRR, etc.)

 

[soonertumor]

Interesting From a UT perspective and very probable. If UT left for Big 10 I think OU gets over themselves and joins SEC. PAC-16 is not a good option for OU without Texas.

I do believe Big 10 would take a UT/OU package, but divorcing from OSU will not happen.

 

[XOVER]

It appears that you assume, soonertumor, that the SEC would take an OU/OSU package. I'm not so sure the SEC would take the combo. Why would they? OSU has zero additional value to OU alone.

I do think the SEC would take OU by itself in a heartbeat, however. Just not with OSU in tow. BTW, I don't think the SEC would take Texas either if Texas insisted on Texas Tech.

Now that the SEC has taken A&M and has planted its flag in Texas, the SEC is looking for #14, so it can then sit around and bide its time. The SEC hand is even stronger if Mizzou is #14.

I think the SEC hits 14, and then waits to see what Texas and OU do, hoping it can add the duo down the road. Just like the B1G is waiting to see if it can add Texas and Notre Dame down the road.

If Missouri joins the SEC, then both Texas and OU need to start cutting their in-state anchors because TT and OSU won't then be able to be saved. At that point, it might be possible for UT/OU to pass themselves off as a "package deal" to either the B1G or the SEC. Now that's a package every conference would take serious interest in.

 

[87Horn]

If the B1G takes Texas, then I think the PAC changes their min about OU/OSU. There really aren't too many other options out West.

Hook Em

 

[77horn]

"Oklahoma president David Boren said all remaining schools -- except for Texas A&M -- "agreed" to give a six-year grant of their first- and second-tier television rights to the Big 12. That means that all revenue from the top television games -- shown currently on networks owned by ABC/ESPN and Fox -- would continue to go to the Big 12 even if a school bolts to another league. "

Link

If this comes to pass, ain't nobody going nowhere for a while.