Comparing this year's team to last year's....

W

wearorange

100+ Posts
is admittedly subjective. But this is an internet message board so here I go.

Last year we barely beat Arkie St, Central Florida, and struggled early versus TCU. In these games, we tackled poorly, gave up big plays, and let lesser teams stay with us due to these problems as well as turnovers. We also did not make great special teams plays and Colt was running for his life.

Have we fixed all of this..... no. Are we going to end up with a better record this year? Way to early to say especially with our gauntlet of a schedule.

The main difference to me... it is not unreasonable to think we can win any given game (OU game will be the hardest but winnable IMHO) left on our schedule based on what I have seen us do and the fact that our weaknesses appear to be improving with each week. I say it is less than 50/50 (1 in 4 maybe) that we win out, but at this time last year with no noticeable improvements being made in our defense in the first 3 weeks I would have said the odds were more like 1 in 100 we would win out.

Even though we were undefeated heading into K-State and I did think we would win that game, I still felt uneasy about the way we were winning and felt like we were whistling past the graveyard.
 
Last year we won a bunch of barn-burners and came back a ton in the second half. Let's hope we don't get in those kinds of holes against the likes of Kansas and mizzou like we did last year against Okie LIte and Nebraska.

I say we're about 6 pts better per game than last year. In other words, the games we had miraculous comebacks last year, we win more comfortably. But we'd still lose the same games we lost last year. (we beat A&M because they are about 10 pts worse than last year)

Here's hoping we show the same kinds of improvements and resiliency we had last year... and a healthy COLT!
 
I think it will boil down to our young DBs' growth and creative (unpredictable) offensive play calling. We have the firepower on offense so long as we can keep the game close on D and so long as we don't get too tight or predictable with our game plan.

So far, things look pretty good, but we will know more after we face Arkansas and Colorado.

In the past couple years we seem to have a strong showing against a team that scares us, like Tech or Nebraska, only to choke against a team that we should handle fairly easily, like the Aggs and K-State.

There are so many potential trap games this year... even the teams we should dominate will come in with fire and probably play better than their norm (OK-St, Aggs, Ark, Colorado)... Should be an exciting season, I just hope our players and coaches don't play down to the competition.
 
Defense appears to be better, at least on the scoreboard. Offense is light years ahead of last year, but admittedly without a big playmaker at RB for the time being and now no playmaker at TE.

I don't think there's a question this team is measurably better than it was at this point last season.
 
Fairly similar but I feel an even tougher test than KSU last year based on both CU's apparent improvement and that it will be there at night.
 
"Offesne is light years ahead of last year"

Not so sure this is true. Yes, we are averaging more points than last year, but you have to look at our opposition. We have yet to face a legit D and wont until we hit Dallas most likely. Our offense has no RB other than Colt, no down field TE that OU could not cover last year, and still no deep threat over the top. I would say this years offense RIGHT NOW is inferior to the offense that finished off the season against Tech and ASU without a doubt.
 
In thinking about this even further (very dangerous as you will see), I feel that our obvious weaknesses/question marks including tight end, running back and secondary may cost us at least one game where our margin for error is razor thin (like OU and perhaps MU).

If we do lose more than one, I bet at least one of the losses will fall into the "I didn't see that coming category." This could be due to major injury (e.g Colt versus KSU and aggy in 06 or Bradford - OU vs. Tech in 07), or an emotional let down game (like our loss to aggy 07 or OU's loss to Colorado or near loss to Iowa St.)

I feel at our best effort we are bettter than everyone but perhaps OU even with our apparent weaknesses.

As in any given year, focusness remains a key.

These letdown games can happen at any level but our margin for error is not as good as it was in 05 (won against OSU and aggy despite subpar efforts). That said, I see our weaknesses as correctable and fear a let down game more than our weaknesses in any game including Baylor.

If we somehow win out or just lose once, it will be by far Mack's greatest effort due to our youth. I am not afraid to say it is possible but will acknowledge it is very unlikely.
 
Ok, I'll play

Offense:
Colt McCoy - has improved over last year, good leadership, he's definitely in charge on the field, tough runner, better passer making decisions, it's still early though. If he goes down, there isn't anyone who can fill his spot...trouble!

RBs- I like this crew, but they need to pick it up some.

Oline - so far much better than last year. Still haven't faced a top D line yet.

WRs - Quan is the man, Shipley's having a year. The rest gotta improve.

TE - Lost a good one, need a guy that can catch and block

Defense
Line DEs how many passes can you bat down? Orakpo is awsome!
DT are stable vs the run

LBs Pretty solid play. Kindle can lay a lick

DBs Questionable, but seem to get better a little each week. Still have Mizzou and OU for big tests!

Overall; the team is better than last year but notsignificantly so. I'll reserve further judgment until November.

Ciao!
BJ
 
dahobbs, I agree with your points to a degree. Yes, last year's O was inconsistent but when they were on (Tech and ASU), boy were they good. Now, this years team may not be that good some of the time but they may be more consitently good most of the time.

So, you can look at it like last year's team had B- games most of the year and a couple of A+ games. Against this years team who may have all B+ games. So what gives, which would you rather have. I tend to agree with you that I would take those B+ games all season long over the unconsitent ones.
 
Another significant difference between last year and this... injuries and suspensions.

Last year... we missed Sergio, Henry Shelton and Billy Pittman for the first three games. The Robert Joseph/Andre Jones fiasco added to an environment that left the impression the team was in disarray.. and it showed in their play.

Then there was the Sweed injury and Ulatoski getting hurt.. this started a seemingly new injury a week with the offensive line never being able to establish a consistent, cogent unit. Without this cohesivness, Colt was running for his life.. and who was he going to throw the ball to... an injured Sweed? a suspended Pittman?

The offensive line this year is deep.. talented... and young.

Defense appears to be evolving... attacking more... and the half time adjustments indicate a much more competent coaching staff.

More enthusiams and apparently more joy on this team.. they are fun to watch.. but...

They are also a year away. We have not seen a game breaker at RB and the DBs are in diapers still. It should be a great ride this year ending in.. the Cotton Bowl.. and with a lot of momentum going into 2009,.
 
We have a young team with a lot of upside. Given all the experience we lost after last year, I will be pleased if we duplicate last year's record, with a victory over aggy this time. I will be ecstatic if we run the table, which is certainly possible (though not likely).

My main long-term concern is developing a succession plan for Colt. Next year could be a really special year, but we will lose Colt after 2009. We will need to do a better job of getting his successor ready to play than we have in the past. Still lots of time between now and then, but something to think about.
 
I mostly agree with Joe, that we are slightly better than last year. The difference in team will be more than overcome by the difference in opponents though. Lets face it, if we had this years schedule last year we would not be talking about continuing the 10 win streak, it would be over. Winning out odds are way worse than 25%, hell our odds of beat OU alone are about that.

Not saying we can't win or that we are not better, but this year we MUST be better to get the same results. The biggest improvement IMHO - o-line. The worst area of improvement - secondary. Not that these kids won't be world class, but they aren't there yet and out pass d ranks like 103 in the nation (or so). That is about on par with last year and we haven't faced the big QBs yet. I predict rapid improvement in these guys, but it has to be warp speed in order to keep Daniels from torchign us.
 
Penta.. Colt's true successor is in his senior year of high school... will come in next year, may redshirt may not.. if this kid pans out the way all have projected... QB at the 40 Acres will be set for quite some time.
 
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