8 at most. OK State would need some kind of miracle at this rate to get to the conference tournament championship in order to prove it belongs. In your scenario, OK State losing to OU immediately would mean the Pokes are out, even if OU gets to the championship.
Tech and OU sit at #55 and #65 in the NET. They're out. I think the lowest they'd go for an at-large team will hover around #50 (news flash: UNC is #49). .500 teams just shouldn't be in. Tech to the NIT and OU to the CBI sounds about right.
OK State is #42 in the NET with only 3 "bad" losses (outside top quartile) on the year. But with only 17 wins, I think they'll need to win at least 2 in the conference tournament to get in. That means they'd beat us in the 2nd round. Honestly... I wouldn't mind it if it meant the XII could get 8 in.
What's interesting is that WVU (only 1 more win than OK State) is at #24 in the NET, only 1 spot behind A&M. They only have 1 bad loss on the year. They're just a ******, ****** road team. If they get past Tech in Game 1, that should be enough to seal a 10-seed. If not, they'll probably be one of the "Last Four In" and forced to play in the Dayton play-in.