by the numbers ...

[Speedway]

Right now TEXAS has some disproportionate numbers at some positions on the depth chart. To many RBs and TEs; and not enough DTs and CBs for instance. I would like to see Brown and company get a little more linear in their numbers. I think this would prevent having to take seven offensive linemen in one class because some of them are going to have to play next year as true freshmen. Anyway this is probably not practical in the real world of recruiting but it could be used as a rule of thumb every year as to who and how many kids at each position. If you apply this over a five year period at each position then you get a pretty even dispersion with regards to the 85 man scholarship limit. By the way I’m only counting scholarship athletes not walk-ons.

QB (4) – take one every year; skip one year in five
RB (5) – take one every year
FB (3) – take one every other year
WR (10) – take two every year
TE (4) – take one every year; skip one year in five
OL (15) – take three every year
K (1) – take one every five years

TOTAL scholarship athletes on offense - 42

DE (8) – take two every year; and one every other year
DT (9) – take two every year: and one every five years
LB (10) – take two every year
CB (8) – take two every other year; take one every other year
S (7) – take one every year; two every other year
P (1) – take one every five years

TOTAL scholarship athletes on defense – 43

The spread sheet for a five year recruiting period looks like this:

QB 1 1 0 1 1

RB 1 1 1 1 1

FB 1 0 1 0 1

WR 2 2 2 2 2

TE 1 1 0 1 1

OL 3 3 3 3 3

K 1 0 0 0 0

42 total on offense


DE 2 1 2 1 2

DT 2 2 1 2 2

LB 2 2 2 2 2

CB 2 1 2 1 2

S 1 2 1 2 1

P 1 0 0 0 0

43 total on defense

These numbers also mean TEXAS only takes between fifteen and twenty kids every year. I know this does not account for injury, transfer, rules violation, criminal violations and death; but it is a good forecast for what position and how many TEXAS should be taking every year. Anyway, just my thoughts, what do you all think?


Please note the numbers are changed for DE (10 to 8); DT (10 to 9); LB (9 to 10); and S (5 to 7)

 

[centexorange]

Well you actually put quite a bit of time and effort into this. But i feel the guys who are making the big bucks to do the recruiting and crunch the numbers know a hell of allot more about this then i do. And judging by our record over the last five years they have been doing a pretty damn good job.

 

[LITNIN HORN]

You have to take into account injury and attrition rate. Also, you have to consider the fact that not every class is full of good players, at all positions, and some are abundant.

Though I don't disagree with most of your numbers...I think the K/P position(s) should be restocked every three to four years.

 

[Speedway]

centexorange,

I agree with you. But this does give a boiler plate as to what the numbers might be every year if we lived in a perfect recruiting world.

I guess this was just for fun anyway.

 

[DanF]

Great idea in a perfect world where recruiting is a perfect science where you can always get anyone you want and there are always top players at each position that are always interested in you.

However this is not a perfect world and recruiting is not perfect. You try to find those top players in need position that are interested in you. For example there were two years, 2003 and 2004 where Texas did not sign a QB, because there were no QB's Texas wanted that were interested in coming and went elsewhere instead. Some positions are stronger in some years and weaker in others. 2009 was not a strong year for WR. 2010 was, why there was only 1 signed in 2009 and many in 2010. Only 2 OL were signed in 2010 as there was not as much interest by other OL and there is greater interest in OL for 2011 and therefore more commitments. Mack Brown at one time said he tries to recruit over a 2 year period instead of over a 1 year period due to available players at each position which are more equal over 2 years than over 1 year.

 

[Speedway]

OK, look at recruiting over a five year period, which would include the incoming freshmen this fall. That would make the totals look like this:

QB - 4 (4 on roster now)
RB - 5 (7 on roster now)
FB - 3 (2 on roster now)
WR - 10 (11 on roster now)
TE - 4 (6 on roster now, not including Irby or Grant)
OL - 15 ( 14 on roster now)
K - 1 (1 on roster now)

42 for offense (45 on roster now) including all incoming recruits

DE - 8 (8 on roster now)
DT - 9 (7 on roster now)
LB - 10 (11 on roster now)
CB - 8 (6 on roster now)
S - 7 (7 on roster now)
P - 1 (1 on roster now)

43 for defense (40 on roster now) including all incoming recruits

If I look at what TEXAS has right now: (note revised differences reflecting new boiler plate)

+1 RB/FB
+1 WR
+2 TE
-1 OL

-2 DT
+1 LB
-2 CB

 

[centexorange]

I agree with you. But this does give a boiler plate as to what the numbers might be every year if we lived in a perfect recruiting world.

I guess this was just for fun anyway.

Not a problem and i agree with you totally.. I appreciate you taking the time to do it.

 

[GoHornsGo90]

DE is by far the most stacked position on the team. For the next few years, it's also the most stacked rotation in the country. Not sure how we don't have enough depth there...

 

[1leggedduck]

You have a fine idea. The problem is getting 17yr. olds who can't decide what shoes to wear to the mall, on board.

 

[LikeMike]

You assume that every year there is even talent worthy of recruiting... not always the case.

Although I agree we need more CB, why do we need 20 D-lineman to play 4 positions, but only 9 LB to play three positions. Especially when 1/3 of the LB we recruit will spin down to DE?

AND, I'd be more comfortable with another QB in development since it's the most important position on the field.

 

[blonthang]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[starchild]

when we have the injuries that we've had at te, we don't have a choice but to keep recruiting guys at that position. when we don't have a rb step up, we have to keep recruiting to try and find that guy. there will always be imbalances.

 

[OrangeRout]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[Joe Fan]

We have too many TEs?

 

[GoHornsGo90]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[Speedway]

LikeMike,

I think I have to agree with you. I'm going to revise the boiler plate to reflect some more LB, less DE, less DT and more S.

 

[everybodygodeep]

Don't forget the 3rd phase of the game. You need OLs, LBs and TEs as well as CBs, WRs, and Ss to play on special teams

 

[bishophorn]

Your numbers each year would work fine if we had a great out of state effort each year. But with Mack recruiting only the state's top players first each year, you have the fact that some years are weak at certain positions and some crops are weak overall. The only way this numbers formula would work is if Mack went after and signed only the national top 20 each year, regardless of state. It would be great if we could do that, but difficult considering Mack works Texas first and might only get 3 top out of state players a year. The staff would have to make big changes in their out of state efforts to recruit only the top 5 at all positions each year. A nice dream, but not likely to happen.

 

[LikeMike]

Another thought, why 20 D linemen to play 4 positions and only 15 O linemen to play 5 positions?

 

[Speedway]

note the revised boiler plate, 17 DL not 20