Bracketology

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Moooooo

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I have yet to see Creme place Texas in the College Station sub-regional over the past few weeks; seems strange. Even Okie State isn't his choice to land in CS.

I get that his other projected #6 seed, Syracuse, can't be sent to Duke or Maryland as all are in the ACC; but, Dayton being the #6 seed he has going to CS confuses me. Perhaps I'm missing something.

If A&M is a #3 seed, and we are a #6 seed, I expect us to end up in College Station.
 
I forget what the rules are, but I know the NCAA tries their best to avoid any repeat regular season matchups until the sweet 16
 
Isn't it conference matchups they try to avoid, as opposed to regular season opponents? The trouble is that seeding is going to be determined by upcoming results. Crème currently has us as a 6 seed. The two RPI lists that have been updated since our win vs. #18 OSU have us at #15 and #25, with a SOS of 9th and 15th. The other RPI lists were last updated prior to our recent win, but have us in the mid-20's. Our current Sagarin ranking would actually put us as a #4 seed. Now I certainly don't think we're going to be that high, though if we win out we very well could be. And if we lose our first game in the conference tourney we'll likely be a 7. Given the RPI strength of so many league teams, conference tourney games could result in quite a bit of movement on the seeding front. Honestly, I would prefer to end up as a 7 seed and go elsewhere, rather than landing at 6 an facing the Ags, and I'm sure they feel the same way. Not because we beat them earlier in the season, but because it's always nice to see someone new in the NCAA tourney, at least in the early rounds. Of course it could be we end up as a 6 and the Ags don't get a 3 seed after all.

It all depends on the conference tourneys!
 
I agree with Moooooo, if aggy is a 3 seed and we're a 6 I'll be shocked if they don't send us to CS. There is no such rule of avoiding repeat regular season non-conference matchups.
 
Well, we have not played well on the road this season for the most part; the exception was probably the game at Kansas. So, even our first round game will probably be tough; moreso if we have to face a lower-seeded team in the first game on their homecourt (example -- LSU).

Best case scenario would be to get sent to a sub-regional where the host team did not make the NCAA tourney (Seattle or Los Angeles). Most likely won't be LA as that is where #1 seed Stanford is projected, so we'd have to be an 8 or 9 seed to fit there. Seattle wouldn't be bad, although I can see Gonzaga being sent there to help with attendance.
 
I thought that maybe TCU might have a chance to sneak into the NCAAs with a conference record of 8-10, overall 19-15. But their best win appears to be over OU & Texas which are offset by two bad losses to SMU and South Dakota State. They might get in but unlikely. It would have been nice to have seven teams from the Big 12 invited.
 
Agree about TCU. I was just reviewing their schedule last night, and their chances seem pretty slim at this point. Primarily because their NCAA RPI is 93rd, though the list hasn't been updated since March 3rd. And Crème doesn't even list them among his first 8 out. What they have going for them is the strength of the conference, and the fact they won three in a row prior to the close loss to WVU yesterday. In addition to their wins over the Horns, Sooners and Cyclones, for the most part they also took care of all of the teams they needed to in conference play. Their one bad loss, and worst of the season actually in terms of RPI is #131 Kansas. The loss to South Dakota State doesn't look too bad as they're currently 42nd in the RPI, and even SMU comes in at #82. Having faced current RPI # 8 Purdue in their pre-conference slate also helps their chances a bit. Sagarin currently has them at #46 with a SOS of 31st, and the Big 12 has received 7 invites for three consecutive seasons. But they're going to have to move up pretty dramatically in the final NCAA RPI to have a chance. While doubtful, I would love to see it happen. My guess is if there's any big surprise, and someone makes the field that most predictors don't even have on the bubble right now, it will be the Horned Frogs.
 
It seems like TCU is definitely out of the NCAA picture at this point. But, as usual, there are some early bracket predictions that are hard to understand. For me the big one right now is Crème having South Dakota State left out of the tourney. He doesn't even have them in his first four out; they're in his second four out. In some years this would be understandable. They were upset in the Summit League tourney, and lowly rival South Dakota (NCAA RPI #151) nabbed the conference's automatic bid. But this year it seems as if SDSU ought to have a lock on an invite, irrespective of what happened in the league tourney. Their current NCAA RPI rank is #42, which was calculated after their final loss. They finished the year 22-9, and 13-1 in league play. More importantly, their pre-conference schedule was as strong as anyone's in the country (current NCAA RPI ratings...#1 ND, #3 Stanford, #12 Penn State, #20 Middle Tennessee, #35 Central Michigan, #40 BYU, #60 FGU, #62 Creighton, and #87 TCU). That's two top 3, four top 20, six top 40, and nine teams in the top 90 of the RPI. They beat #12 PSU, #35 Central Michigan, #87 TCU, and another team just outside the top 100 (#108 Wisconsin Green-Bay). That final loss to RPI 151 South Dakota isn't good, but is already taken into account in their RPI ranking of #42. Based on the RPI it seems like they should definitely be in, and there shouldn't be any reason the Summit League shouldn't get two invites if the RPI justifies it. Kind of hard to fathom a team with their RPI, and looking at the schedule they played and teams they beat, not making the field. South Dakota (7-7 in Summit play) won the conference tourney, so they're in. Fair enough, but hopefully SDSU isn't going to get the shaft because if it.
 
I'm surprised he doesn't have USC in the Los Angeles sub-regional. Perhaps UCLA is the host? Still, you would think having a local school would be be beneficial. I guess they expect more Stanford fans would attend as the "local" school.

I get this feeling we could be paired against USC in the first round. Maybe b/c of Imani's mom and aunts being former USC players, and now with Cynthia Cooper being the head coach there.
 
I honestly wouldnt mind us being moved to a 6 seed if that meant being put in the Louisville or Stanford Regionals. I just think that with the make up of this team in particular, we wouldnt have much of a shot against a ND or UCONN because thier strengths (Transition baskets off turnovers, shooting the 3) are our weakness'. Even if our defense were to hold them below their averages, they would still be 5 or more percentage points better in every category. And honestly having seen them play both on tv and in person, I think ND is the best team in the country, they can score in bunches and put a close game out of reach in a matter of minutes, so they are who I would want to avoid more than anyone.
 
Crème's latest bracketology on 03/13/14 keeps Texas as a #5 at University Park. I still like this bracket as I think it gives the Horns a good shot to get to the sweet 16.

Only three more days and we will find out how accurate Crème is.
 
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