Bracketology

[WCBBNUT]

Everyone says Iowa has the hardest route to the Final Four but I think it’s USC based simply on Net Rankings and UConn.

I’ve been saying all along the Net Ranking is the best indicator. UConn is Net #2 and USC Net #10.

I filled out a bracket using only Net Rankings to predict advancement. I’ll report back how I do.

Using Net only applied to the existing brackets, the
Elite 8 should be SC, ND, TX, Stanford, Iowa, UCLA, USC, UConn

Final Four should be: South Carolina vs Texas and Iowa vs UConn

The final game SHOULD be SC vs UConn with SC taking it all.

BUT I couldn’t go there so I have TX vs UConn with the Horns taking the whole enchilada!!

 

[DFW_Horn]

Full bracket with game times (Eastern) and ESPN channel. Iowa and UConn the only 2 teams playing on ABC - just gonna leave that there.

 

[STHAustin]

Why is it better for ESPN to have Texas playing at 3:00 instead of 5:30?

 

[DFW_Horn]

Games with Longhorn and/or Vic connections:

• Auburn vs Arizona: Johnnie Harris
• Utah vs South Dakota State: I put this one on the list because, until a mystery injury, Isabel Palmer was getting consistent minutes and had a few starts for the Utes but hasn't played since mid-February
• Kansas vs Michigan: Ariel is the Assistant Coach for Player Development for Michigan
• Ohio State vs Maine: Celeste Taylor

Any I missed?

 

[racerx5908]

Why is it better for ESPN to have Texas playing at 3:00 instead of 5:30?

It isn't. But then SC is playing at 3:00 as well!

 

[DFW_Horn]

Just to reiterate, those times are Eastern so Texas will play at 2:00 local time.

 

[LutherIsMyDog]

Why is it better for ESPN to have Texas playing at 3:00 instead of 5:30?

From my perspective, I like the 2:00 timeslot for the first game. It will give Texas more time to rest before the next game and we will be able to scout the FSU/Bama in person.

 

[HornView]

Hoping for a good crowd for that first game Friday. If you have to work, there’s time to make it to the game if you work a half day

 

[WCBBNUT]

Hoping for a good crowd for that first game Friday. If you have to work, there’s time to make it to the game if you work a half day

I’m there and my group is now up to 6! We plan to be loud.

 

[WCBBNUT]

At the end of 16 games the Net Rankings are 14/16 with Middle Tennessee and Iowa State beating the odds.

MT has a net ranking of 39 vs Louisville at 23
ISU has a net ranking of 33 vs Maryland at 31

 

[brnkj]

The committee seemed intentional in trying to set up games with additional drama. Here's a few that jumped out at me:
1st Round
ISU/Maryland
Brenda vs Bill
2nd Round
LSU/Louisville (not happening)
Mulkey vs Walz
Van Lith vs former team
Duke/Ohio State
Celeste vs former team

 

[UTSUgrad]

Everyone says Iowa has the hardest route to the Final Four but I think it’s USC based simply on Net Rankings and UConn.

I’ve been saying all along the Net Ranking is the best indicator. UConn is Net #2 and USC Net #10.

I filled out a bracket using only Net Rankings to predict advancement. I’ll report back how I do.

Using Net only applied to the existing brackets, the
Elite 8 should be SC, ND, TX, Stanford, Iowa, UCLA, USC, UConn

Final Four should be: South Carolina vs Texas and Iowa vs UConn

The final game SHOULD be SC vs UConn with SC taking it all.

BUT I couldn’t go there so I have TX vs UConn with the Horns taking the whole enchilada!!

My picks, based on no stats, just randomly picking upsets:
Texas v. SCarolina and UCLA v. Ohio State. Texas to win it all, of course.

This means UCLA beats LSU, Iowa or Kansas State. Ohio State beats UConn and SCal. SCarolina beats Notre Dame. If these are ridiculously wrong, I guess I'll have to disappear into Fan Poster Protection for the summer.

 

[WCBBNUT]

At the end of the first round the Net Rankings were correct 30/32 times. Not very telling this early on as there is a pretty big divide in some of these early match-ups.

Bring on Round 2!

 

[UTSUgrad]

My picks, based on no stats, just randomly picking upsets:
Texas v. SCarolina and UCLA v. Ohio State. Texas to win it all, of course.

This means UCLA beats LSU, Iowa or Kansas State. Ohio State beats UConn and SCal. SCarolina beats Notre Dame. If these are ridiculously wrong, I guess I'll have to disappear into Fan Poster Protection for the summer.

Well, Ohio State blew that pick. Sigh.

 

[WCBBNUT]

I think everyone was rooting for Middle Tennessee to bust our brackets.

Sad to see Celeste Taylor’s season come to an end with the Ohio loss, but I do like an upset as long as it’s not against us.

 

[WCBBNUT]

At the end of The Round of 32

The net rankings held up 15/18 with three Net Ranking upsets. But there were also 3 seeding upsets.

4 Kansas Stare should have beaten 5 Colorado with KSU having a net of 15 and CU 16 but Colorado won 63-50.

2 Ohio Sate should have beaten 7 Duke
with OS having a net of 9 to Duke’s 20, but Duke won 75-63.

4 Gonzaga should not have beaten 5 Utah
with Utah having a net of 11 and Gonzaga 12 but Gonzaga won 77-66.

Even though 5 Baylor was the lower seed to 4 Virginia Tech, Baylor had the higher net 18 to 19. So it was a seeding upset but not a net upset when Baylor won 75-72. But this one is tricky due to the VT injury, and the case could be made that Baylor should have won by a greater margin.

So Net Rankings held up in 50 out of 55 games
While Seedings held up in 51 out of 55 games

It’s not really apples to apples going forward because upsets throw off the subsequent matchups, but it is interesting to see that the committee tends to get it right in the early rounds.

 

[WCBBNUT]

Because two one seeds are playing in the final game, the outcome of the championship game won’t change the fact that the selection committee did well.

Net Rankings were correct all but 10 times.
Committee rankings were correct all but 8 times.

Credit to the Selection Committee on a job well done.