Big XII teams in the dance?

H

HornFan16

100+ Posts
The Big XII picture of who will make the dance is really confusing. Texas and KU are obviously in. But after that, who makes it?

KSU, OU, Baylor, aggy are all mired closely together. But all of those teams besides Baylor have some uggly losses and haven't played well lately. Who of these is left out?

Right now I think KSU and Baylor are probably in (if KSU can win one or two more) and I would guess one of OU and aggy won't make it.

After those, Tech, Nebraska, and OSU have all done some positive things. Could any of these make it? Probably too little, too late. If Nebraska or OSU beat Texas it would help their chances a lot. Hopefully that one won't happen.
 
I think it will be KU, Texas, Baylor, K-State and Aggy.

There was talk of the Big XII getting six teams in this year but I just don't see it.

Baylor and A&M play Wednesday night in Waco in what should quite a good contest.
 
OU is helped by the fact they have the 6th toughest schedule in the country and have beaten lots of other bubble teams. They beat Baylor twice so I'm not sure how Baylor gets in if OU doesn't.
 
BU is 8 - 6, and plays TAMU in Waco. If the Bears win, they will be 9 - 6, with a last game at TT. The Ags' last game will be at home against KU, and they need to beat BU to be 8 - 7 at that game's tipoff. The game in Waco between the Ags and Bears is looking like a play-in/elimination game.
 
I'm going to be bullish. Any team that gets to 9-7 in the league will make it, and any 8-8 team that does not lose in the first round of the B12 tournament will be a pretty strong candidate.

I think OU and A&M both make it at 8-8. Tech (47 RPI, 57 Pomeroy, 58 Sagarin) at 8-8 probably has a better chance than you might think. Compare them to Arizona State (66 RPI, 39 Pomeroy and Sagarin), which squawkers like right now. Both weak on the road, and ASU's n-c schedule is one of the worst in the nation, whereas Tech's was pretty good.
 
I know it sounds ridiculous on the surface, but OSU really has a shot. If they beat OU at home, which is very possible, and lose at UT, which is likely, they'd be 8-8 but with wins in their last 12 over KU, A&M and OU. Their RPI would be in the 60s and by themselves wouldn't look like an NCAA candidate, but when you look at how terrible the bubble is this year, OSU would truly be in the mix at 8-8. With that record, if they make the Big XII Semis they'd definitely be in. If they only win one game at the Big XII, then they're on the fence and would be at the mercy of how the other bubble teams do.

Before you think this is out of left field, look at what these other bubble teams are doing:

A&M losing by 27 at OU
Florida losing at home to Miss St.
Kent St. losing at Bowling Green
Syracuse blowing it at home to Pitt
Houston losing to East Carolina

And that all happened YESTERDAY! The list goes on and on. Far more bubble teams are losing than winning.

Nebraska must beat Texas Tuesday to even smell a chance at an at-large. They don't have a KU-type win that OSU does.

If I had to guess today, I'd say UT, KU, Baylor, KSU, and OU for sure. For some reason I think A&M is going to pull it together and beat KU, so they'll get in. OSU will barely miss it, but they definitely have a shot.
 
A&M needed one win going into their last 3 games to seal a tourney bid.

Lost Saturday @ OU, but still two chances left -- both tough.

One more regular season win bumps A&M's RPI to Top 40, and that gets them in without question.

An RPI in the 60's leaves Oklahoma State with no prayer.

I've mentioned it in different threads but its worth repeating -- at this point in the season the way the RPI is calculated a single win or loss is not going to impact your RPI rating near as much as your strength of schedule.

While A&M has struggled mightily the last few weeks, their strength of schedule has jumped quite a bit, keeping their RPI in the 40's.
 
Ah, Bob beat me by a full minute!
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Right. I disagree with KH in regard to the OSU profile in that I think they'll get in the discussion with one more win and a tournament win. If they want to make it, they have to beat OU and Texas, and then probably someone in KC.

That would be nine in a row, an 18-13 D-I finish, with wins over Baylor, at A&M, KU, OU and at Texas, and 10-2 the last 12. That's going to look good in the at-large pool.

That said, OU, no telling, but they're at home. They have a decent shot. I doubt they will beat Texas with the league title probably on the line.
 
I still think the Aggies are in good shape, but if things are close, RPI won't matter. Sixteen minutes without a point? That's going to matter.
 
So you don't know much about college hoops and how the selection process works -- not sure why it took 4-5 posts to clear this one up
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Agree 100% with the comments on RPI -- but, it is what it is.

Why "who you play" is coming into concern right now for teams like A&M is they are having their SOS boosted now at the end of the season instead of early on in non-conference.

In the winning % portion of the RPI formula, Kansas State beating Colorado next week actually has the same impact as A&M beating Kansas next weekend.
 
Today's results suggest more bubble teams can't seem to win their way into the NCAAs:

St. Joseph's loses at home to Temple 57-56
Maryland falls at home to Clemson 73-70
VIllanova loses at Louisville 68-64
Kentucky falls at Tennessee 63-60

While the St. Joseph's loss is the only inexcusable one on the list (and one that should keep them out for good), there's still very few teams doing enough to win their way into the tournament. 65 teams must be picked, but no more than 55 will be deserving. But as long as bubble teams continue to lose, this bodes well the Okie States and A&M of the world. In almost any other year, OSU at 15-12 still wouldn't be considered, but they have to at this point because all these other teams can't win. And honestly I'd rather see a team like a 18-win OSU get in with a strong closing stretch.
 
I think there's a very good chance the Big 12 ends up with only 4 teams...Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

I can't see aggy winning either of the last two games. And without Griffin, ou will probably lose in Stillwater, and will have a tough time with Mizzou at home. That offense is awful without its best player.
 
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