Big XII basketball tiers

Horns11

Horns11

10,000+ Posts
Subjective, but kinda matters for seeding and how we're seen on a national stage.

Tier 1: (0-0 right now, maybe 1-0 tonight... one can hope)
KU
Baylor

Tier 2: (0-1 road loss)
Tech
Texas

Tier 3: (4-1, 1 loss was on the road)
WVU
ISU
TCU
OU

Tier 4: (2-2, splits with both home/away)
OK State
KSU

The way I see it, respectability demands the following:
1. Finish at least 1-3 against Tier 1, although pollsters won't rank us down much for losing to either of them.
2. Gotta split with Tech at home. The whole nation was watching last weekend.
3. Probably at least split with OU/WVU on the road. Arguably our best evidence for decency is going 4-1 against them.
4. Nothing we can do about Tier 4 any longer except maybe beating one in the conference tourney. I REALLY wish we had those OK State and KSU losses back.
 
Horns11 said:
Subjective, but kinda matters for seeding and how we're seen on a national stage.

Tier 1: (0-0 right now, maybe 1-0 tonight... one can hope)
KU
Baylor

Tier 2: (0-1 road loss)
Tech
Texas

Tier 3: (4-1, 1 loss was on the road)
WVU
ISU
TCU
OU

Tier 4: (2-2, splits with both home/away)
OK State
KSU

The way I see it, respectability demands the following:
1. Finish at least 1-3 against Tier 1, although pollsters won't rank us down much for losing to either of them.
2. Gotta split with Tech at home. The whole nation was watching last weekend.
3. Probably at least split with OU/WVU on the road. Arguably our best evidence for decency is going 4-1 against them.
4. Nothing we can do about Tier 4 any longer except maybe beating one in the conference tourney. I REALLY wish we had those OK State and KSU losses back.
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Well, we got the win against KU. That is always a nice feather in the cap.
 
It was literally 2 weeks ago when people on this board were worried if we'd even get to 18 wins on the season before the conference tourney. Gotta trust the process with a first year coach.

Now, it seems that 22 is more likely the top win total before Kansas City, but either way, I think pollsters and the committee have seen enough. Winning only 1 or 2 the rest of the way would still be enough to get us in.
 
There is always a game lost that at the end of the season you look back and wish you had again, I think K-State at home is that game for this year. I can live with losing in Stillwater, that happens. Texas needed an upset win to offset the K-State home loss and winning last night was that big step so it evens out.

Looking ahead, 3-4 in these last seven would be ok assuming get one more win in the 4 with BU/Tech/KU and take at least 2 of 3 out of the TCU/OU/WVU games left and that is 22 wins and likely a 6 seed in the tourny. Getting more than 3 wins in these last 7 would be fantastic and would obviously improve seeding.
 
I think the 22 wins (pre-conference tournament) would be enough for a 5-seed at worst. Lunardi had us as a 4-seed this morning. Probably depends on if Baylor beats the hell out of us or if we play close games against them. And whether we beat Tech.
 
FWHORN said:
There is always a game lost that at the end of the season you look back and wish you had again, I think K-State at home is that game for this year. I can live with losing in Stillwater, that happens. Texas needed an upset win to offset the K-State home loss and winning last night was that big step so it evens out.

Looking ahead, 3-4 in these last seven would be ok assuming get one more win in the 4 with BU/Tech/KU and take at least 2 of 3 out of the TCU/OU/WVU games left and that is 22 wins and likely a 6 seed in the tourny. Getting more than 3 wins in these last 7 would be fantastic and would obviously improve seeding.
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Totally agree. Obviously the Big 12 tourney can change the outlook but I feel like each win over BU/KU/tech equals one seed lower in the Big Tourney. Our post-season image will be shaped by those 4 games.
 
Horns11 said:
I think the 22 wins (pre-conference tournament) would be enough for a 5-seed at worst. Lunardi had us as a 4-seed this morning. Probably depends on if Baylor beats the hell out of us or if we play close games against them. And whether we beat Tech.
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Woooiooaaaaahhhhhhh there…

How about WE beat the snot out of Baylor!
That’s what Kansas did.

:ut:
 
We play tough and win the turnover battle, we’ll be right in there with Baylor and can take them.
 
Chop said:
We play tough and win the turnover battle, we’ll be right in there with Baylor and can take them.
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WVU was up on BU for most of the game before losing late. Of course BU was missing 2 starters (not sure when they return). Point is, BU is not a national champ this year and is very beatable. Final comment, WVU is a very good team but like a certain football team I follow, they dont know how to keep a lead in the 2nd half. Strange how this problem affects certain teams.
 
Updated as of 2/15:

The way I see it, respectability demands the following:
1. Finish at least 1-3 against Tier 1, although pollsters won't rank us down much for losing to either of them.
Well, we got the 1. However, the manner in which we lost to Baylor on the road was not very good in making us seem competitive down the stretch. Kind of a wash almost. We shouldn't have struggled as mightily as we did, and that requires both Carr and the bigs to up their game. I don't expect to beat KU on the road, and who knows how healthy BU will be on Big Monday.
2. Gotta split with Tech at home. The whole nation was watching last weekend.
Saturday will be hopping. If you had told me like 5 years ago that a February regular season game against Tech would be one of the most meaningful Texas basketball home games in years, I probably wouldn't have believed you.
3. Probably at least split with OU/WVU on the road. Arguably our best evidence for decency is going 4-1 against them.
This is where it'll get hairy for seeding if we don't recover from last weekend. Tonight's game has the ability to really pull us down in terms of public perception if it's similar to the Baylor game. Also, anything can happen in Morgantown. I think because more eyes will be on the game tonight than next Saturday, if we're going to have a road split with these games, I'd prefer to win tonight and lose in WVU. I'm not concerned about TCU at home.

Lunardi has us as a 5-seed this morning. A loss tonight would probably push us to a 6, while winning would keep us as a 5.
 
Updated as of 2/23:

It's tough to deny that Tech doesn't belong in that "Tier 1" any longer, as KU, BU, and Tech are now 5, 6, and 7 in the NET rankings.

Another important consideration for that 3rd tier is that it's fallen off a lot as the season has worn on. ISU is sitting pretty at #34 in the NET, but OU and TCU have fallen to #50+. WVU has taken over the last place in the conference. It's no longer "impressive" to come away with a win in Morgantown, which means we have to.

Updated tiers:

Tier 1 - KU/BU/Tech
1-3
Two remaining (home and away)
Needed to steal that one last weekend to have hope for a 4-seed, in my opinion. But we can still accomplish that by beating the Jayhawks or Bears... tall order.

Tier 2 - just Texas at this point

Tier 3 - ISU, OU, TCU
4-1
Should be a W tonight, putting as at 5-1 on the season against the "middling" teams.

Tier 4 - OK State, KSU, WVU
3-2
A loss in Morgantown could be the #6-or-#7-seed bell tolling for thee, Texas. They've collapsed hard, and while some of our individual players have tanked in production, it's not enough of a tanking to lose to WVU.

My updated guess is 10-8 for the conference before the tournament (21-10 overall). Finishing with an additional loss to a "top middling" team like ISU or OU could still make us fall to a #6 if the committee tries to move things around by geography, but I'm hoping we get to at least the conference tournament semis and a solid #5-seed.
 
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