Big Oil politics, re: electric cars

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orangecat1

500+ Posts
I saw the price of gas today, 3.49! This is down about 20 cents from the high. Two theories come to mind.

1. the obvious-the Obama admin. is suppressing prices.

2. the public is buying these electric cars and the horse is out of the barn, and can't be put back in. I really like this theory.

a. evidence such as the fact that there is an electric charging station at our local library. Electric cars are not going away. Big oil is scared of raising the price too high in fear of people buying more electric or hybrid cars.

b. If big oil were to keep electric cars from reaching consumers, they probably would have done so by now.

And now the big question. Will the republicans get in bed with big oil and try to promise to restrict electric cars, thus helping big oil make more money?

If so, will the democrats be able to sniff out such plans before the election, and tip the election towards them?

I have voted democratic locally most elections, even participated in precinct conventions, and have what I call "fu mileage". (I own a Corolla AND carpool, so big oil, go ahead, "make my day".) For our next family car, I plan to insist on 40+ mpg for both city and highway. I hope everybody plans to do the same.

And on kind of a related note, I wonder if the recent reduction in electric prices is related? Fyi, for my zip, I could get a 12 month contract for 7.6 cents a kilowatt hour, or a 3 month contract for 5.9 cents per hour. At 5.9 cents, I would almost just say forget about trying to save money this summer, keep the A/C down to 72 degrees. Even if you were to go crazy and use 4000 kilowatt hours, you would pay only mid $200s.

This compares to about 13 cents a kilowatt hour when my family lived in an apartment from 1999-2004.
 
I see Ford is manufacturing the Ford Focus. 100 miles per charge. Five doors, five seater. 32 k. Toyota is coming out with its Rav4 SUV later this year.



The number of charging stations is exploding: from 5000 today to 23000 by the end of next year.


The Link


Fred Smith, CEO of Fedex, is an energy visionary. Fedex buys 1.5 BILLION gallons of petroleum based fuels per year, so he has a strong incentive to turn his fleet to electric. He recently said that, within six years, electric vehicles will be in wide commercial use, transporting everything from FedEx packages to plumbers and pizza.

The EV Seminar begins tomorrow in Los Angeles and runs for three days. There are some heavy hitters that are going to be unveiling some big time stuff: fast charging technologies etc..

It's happening right now, despite the cries of those who say it can't be done.
 
Hopefully the industry can make some progress without government subsidies. We also need some investment in natural gas plants to generate electricity. Our electric grid will also need some major upgrades as more people go home to dock their cars and recharge them. There will certainly be evening demand surges. My next door neighbor works for a big giant spooky "BIG OIL" company and she drives an electric car. Lumping companies, their owners or employees into conveniently misconceived categories is so weak. Several companies that get lumped into the BIG OIL category are leading the way on alternative energy initiatives.
 
If a "Big Oil" company hasn't expanded their mission and vision to be a "Big Energy" company then they will go the way of brick and mortar video stores. They will smartly (most) diversify when the market will bear the cost and demand of newer energy technologies.
 
Guys- try not to make a really cool, new technology turn into a war about Big Oil. Let Big Oil, through the AEI, spend hundreds of millions of dollars on TV ads trying to convince us any legislation regarding their industry kills jobs etc. The real thing happening here is called "Creative Destruction" first termed by the economist Schumpter.

At work we ran the numbers for fun and curiosity- it turns out that if every American who owned a car had an EV, and they charged it at night, (when they typically would anyways) you would only have to increase the grid supply by about 50%. Now, factor in that to get to that point it will probably take 30-50 years, and there is plenty of time to increase the size of the grid before we have any issues.

Another fun fact: Owners of the Chevy Volt are typically driving around 950 miles BETWEEN fill ups, because they are charging their cars between drives. So, 950 miles on a tank of gas, plus a few dollars of electrons. Not bad. If the world improves driving efficiencies by say 5 or 10%, you can expect a similar drop if not more in gasoline prices. That is the ONLY way we can control prices- limit exposure to costs!
 
PS- Volvo has an SUV coming out in 2014 that is a plug in like the Volt, will cost around $40k, same price for the other cars in its class like the Lexus, BMW etc. As a Dad with a little girl, me likey the SUVs that get great mileage!

Also, Tesla is making an SUV which is 100% electric, comes out in 2013 I think.

Right now my favorite is the Ford Explorer, getting 30 mpg in the highway. And to think just 10 years ago they were lucky to get 20 mpg..there is still plenty of room for improvement!
 
Doesn't most electricity come from the burning of fuels provided from Big Coal or Big Natural Gas? I have a feeling that when electricity prices rise, we will hear complaints about Big Electricity.

In the meantime, enjoy your electric vehicle. I really mean that--the free market is a great thing and if that is what makes you happy, awesome.
 
Right now in the US, unfortunately, more electric usage means more coal burning. In other words, it is bad for the environment. The sooner we can get Natural Gas usage in place to generate electricity, the better.
 
I love it that there are going to be so many choices for EV which will surely bring the price down.
That is how a free market works I think.
And i am guessing with so many on the market commerical charging stations will increase as well making it more convenient.
 
Had an interesting conversation the other day with a guy that is a consultant to refineries. He said that they have absolutely no concern about electric or hybrid cars affecting their business in any meaningful way. First, those vehicles have a very low acceptance rate by consumers, and, more importantly, the total energy consumed by gasoline engine cars, electric cars, and hybrids is about the same throughout their manufacture and use.

In their view, the key challenge to their business is CNG (compressed natural gas). That technology burns very cleanly and uses a fuel that is proving to be in abundant supply in the US. Some fleets are using it, but it is surprisingly slow in gaining acceptance. I've never heard an argument against it at a basic level, the only problem is that there isn't a network of fueling stations. It's a much better solution than electrics because it doesn't introduce the ecological nightmare that the batteries from EV's represent. Curious why that technology doesn't get more traction.
 
It's not "Green".
rolleyes.gif
 
My Leaf costs about $30 a month to drive between 800 and 1,000 miles. The initial cost was $27,500 courtesy of the rebate.

Even if it was entirely powered by coal generated electricity (which mine isn't), the car would be more green than a hybrid or gasoline engine car. My electricity mix is 40% nuclear (Palo Verde); 35% natural gas; and 25% coal making my car generate about 1/3 the greenhouse gasses of an equivalent hybrid.

If you only drive maybe 60 miles a day or have access to a charging station at work (in which case your maximum range is probably about 120 miles round trip), the Leaf is a great vehicle. It drives like a regular car and is very quick 0-40. It is ok on the freeway although high speed (maximum is 90) really eats the battery.

It is sort of bizarre that someone would talk about the energy cost to manufacture a vehicle because those are roughly equivalent for gas or electric vehicles and I was going to buy a new car anyway. I do still have an Acura TL as my spare car, but I only drive it maybe once a month.
 
How long will we taxpyers have to give that $7500.00 subsidy? is that for every EV offered including all the new ones from different compnaies?
In addition to the $7500 subsidy how much do we kick up for the charging stations?


I understand the need to give the subsidy, to get the market going
but when does it end?
 
While my Leaf was made in Japan, the new ones are being made in Tennessee. Nissan can make up to 200,000 a year, but the demand does not appear to be there. I think they need to come down in price to about $22,500 ($30,000 minus the subsidy) to sell a bunch of them. The battery cost and technology is the real limiting factor for now.
 
paso
Why should I and other taxpayers have to give 7500.00 so someone else can pay 22,500?


if people want an EV, let them pay to market price.

As i said I understand the need to kick start it
but that time has passed
 
paso
good question
and IMO the fact there are many new makers and models coming to market proves that car makers think there is demand and the market can stand on its' own.
that is My opnion

so tell me why you think with so many offered why does the taxpayer has to keep subsidizing the purchasee of the cars.
 
I don't really have an opinion on this. I probably would not have purchased the Leaf without the subsidy because the car was too expensive for only having a 100 mile range. I do not get the Volt's price point at all although at least it solves the range issue. The technology is pretty new and a subsidy for some period of time makes sense. I am not sure how long this should be.
 
LTH,

If you are going to dig deeper into 'true' cost like govt subsidy of battery technology for EVs then it is only fair to allocate 'true' cost for petroleum. Most of our foreign policy budget is about securing petroleum so you can reasonably allocate a large portion of our defense budget to oil.

Certainly EVs require components and materials that are procured outside of our footprint but not in such quantities and typically not with the same baggage as oil.
 
the subsidy is a good idea for a while longer. I would say (just gut call) that we need about 5% of the vehicles on the road to be EVs and then it should be cut off. At that point the EV infrastructure will have enough of a base to sustain itself and the manufacturers will have had about 6 more years to get the cost down further.
 
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