Big 12 NCAA Invites

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overseasbbfan1

1,000+ Posts
Entering the Big 12 tourney the Horns, KS and OSU were vying for a probable two (and definitely one) spots in the NCAA field. Most had the Horns in based on their 3-0 finish in conference play, with OSU having to win at least one in the league tourney to stay in the conversation. Both lost in round one so nothing changes there. If KS beats A&M today I would think they they're in, or have a very good chance anyway.

As far as I can tell, based on what the selection committee looks at, and what others are saying, here are the factors that should come into play. All three teams finished 8-10 in conference play and tied for 6th in the league.

OSU - they finish the season at 16-12 and with the loss to Tech should be out of the NCAA picture. The only reason they were in the conversation was because they finished the regular season on a 3-0 run, the only team other than the Horns and Bears to accomplish that feat. But they also lost 4 of their last 7. They had 5 wins over teams under consideration for an NCAA invite, but also had one of those bad losses (RPI #117 Long Island) that really hurts when the committee is doing their calculations.

KS - as noted a win over the Ags today probably gets them in, or that's how I see it anyway. Like OSU they also had 5 wins over possible NCAA bound teams, inc two over the Horns, but had a particularly bad loss to RPI # 178 Alabama. That really hurts when it comes to the NCAA selection process/criteria. They finished the regular season 1-2, and lost 5 of their last 7.

TEXAS - the Horns had 8 wins over possible NCAA tourney teams, or three more than both KS and OSU. More importantly, they avoided any of those bad losses the other two had - all of their defeats came to teams in the RPI top 60. They also finished the regular season 3-0, and won 5 of their last 7 - again, a stronger finish than either the Jayhawks or Cowgirls.

If the Big12 gets 7 invites the Horns and Jayhawks should both be in. If we get just 6 in the field I'm not sure what happens. Based on the NCAA selection criteria it should be the Horns if the Ags win today. If KS pulls off the upset they should get in.

And of course, if either Missuori or Tech pull off the big upset and win the league tourney, all of the speculation is mute. At 9th and 10th in the conference, either would have to win it all - even a final appearance wouldn't be enough - but it's the Big 12 so I guess anything is possible.
 
Thanks for the insight, and breakdown. I also want to note UT's RPI coming in at 20. Which is also working strongly in their favor.
 
I'm not praying for anything; just presenting the facts as I see them. And whatever it means for the Horns, I wouldn't be upset to see the Jayhawks beat the Ags today. I actually feel bad for KS because they were putting together a great season until the loss of Davis (I know, you think injuries don't matter); yet, even with the late season downturn and losing 5 of their last 7 games, they pulled off a major upset of OU to nail down that tie for 6th in the league (and keep their NCAA hopes alive). Losing Davis was tough luck and I feel for them because we've been in the same boat - and if they beat the Ags today, great for them and I would be happy if an invite came their way.
 
I still like Texas' changes to get an NCAA invite, simply based on their RPI and record against other likely NCAA teams. That was a horrible way to exit the Big 12 tournament. I had thought that one win would nail down the invite. Now we have to wait and see what happens.
 
I haven’t looked at this for this season until today because my favorite site didn’t have women’s stats up. Today I took a look at realtimerpi.com……

Assume the Big 12 gets six teams in the tournament….the first four figure to be BU, aTm, KSU, and OU. OU doesn’t have a huge margin over the rest of the hopefuls, but it is enough that there should be no doubt. That leaves you selecting two from the other candidates. I’ll talk Texas first to be able to compare to their resume…..

What Texas has working in their favor are two wins over aggy, zero losses outside the RPI top 65, and a fairly strong finish to the regular season. Four losses came to teams in the RPI top 5. They have eight wins against the RPI top 100, all in the top 65 which average 41.5. The best wins are aggy (8) two times, OU (22), and Cal (33). They finished 5-5.

Texas Tech is very close to that. Tech has the same number of losses, with one more win. (We know how they got that.) They also have no bad losses. They have eight wins against the RPI top 100, which average 51.25. There best wins are KSU (19), Penn State (20), and ISU (44). They are 2-1 vs Texas. They finished 4-6.

Kansas has two bad losses to RPI 109 and 175. They have nine wins against the RPI top 100, the last being RPI 92 Creighton. If I drop Creighton and average the top eight it comes to 54.5. The best wins are OU (22), UT (51), and UT again. Obviously that makes them 2-0 vs Texas. At 19-11 they have one more win than Texas and two less losses. Working against them is a weaker scheduler, a lack of signature wins, an injury to their best player, and a 3-7 finish….this is before they play aggy tonight.

OKS finishes at 16-12. They have bad losses to RPI 118 and 109. They have seven wins against the RPI top 100 which average 40.6. There best wins are aggy (8), OU(22), and ISU (44). They are 1-1 vs Texas and finish 4-6.

Who are your two picks? I would have Texas and Texas Tech. But it’s close between the first three. And, there is no guarantee that the Big 12 will get six teams.
 
Teams getting in the NCAA Tourn.
Baylor Kansas St.
AM Texas
Oklahoma
Iowa St.
What hurts a lot of teams at the end of the year. Is there Non- Conference Schedule.
 
Tech is out because they finished 9th in the conference. Without exception everyone has said they would have to win the conference tourney to get an invite - even making the finals wouldn't have been enough. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, and I think Babhorn will be able to confirm this, but I'm amost certain the committee won't ever take a team ranked lower in the conference regular season standings over a team ranked higher unless they actually win their respective league tournament. And that's even if all other stats, RPI etc are pretty equal. I don't think that's ever happened anyway.

OSU is out also because they finished 16-12, had a loss to a team outside the RPI top 100, and lost in the first round of the league tournament. They probably had to win at least two in the Big12 tourney, and have some others lose, to get in.

KS has a very good shot of making it if they upset the Ags tonight; it might be tough otherwise as it's very hard to overcome a loss to a team ranked as low as 175 in the RPI standings, esp when the other team/s you're competing with for that last spot didn't.
 
I would think that five Big 12 schools are in: BU, A&M, OU, ISU & KSU. I can't see Tech getting in due to their conference record unless they had won the conference. Of the other three that have a shot, Texas, OSU and KU, Texas has the best overall record against other top schools and no bad losses to a team with an RPI of 100 or more. That, imo, gives Texas the edge, especially considering that none of the three won their first game in the Big 12. If seven teams are invites, a long shot, I would think KU is likely the seventh Right now, I think the Big 12 is looking at 6 slots, with that last one depending on what happens in the remaining conference tournaments.

edited to give the correct numbers, can't count anymore.
biggrin.gif
 
Thanks, Babhorn, I hadn't even considered the possibility of just five invites for the league. Esp when looking at RPI and considering the strength of the conference, not to mention all the projections having at least 6 in the tourney, so I agree with you that it will probably be at least that many. But anything is possible and I don't know enough about what's happening in other leagues and tournaments to understand how that might impact the Big 12, either positively or negatively. No question the Horns and KS are both out of the NCAA picture if the conference nabs just 5 invitations.
 
right now, the only question is if we are considered to be one top 30-34 teams that will snag a non automatic bid. I think we will get very strong consideration for one of those spots.
 
So, I looked closer today……..yesterday I didn’t even give Texas credit for the OU win while calculating the average RPI of the top eight wins. That actually made that 36.1. But, I wanted to get outside the conference anyway. It’s still rushed because I started so late this year. I just don’t have time to double check anything, or make sure there are no teams I’m missing. But, what I would add after today…..

ISU – Again no bad losses. Their worst loss is the same as Texas, #65 OKS. They have eight wins over top the 100 to nine for Texas, (now that I included OU),with an average RPI of 40.65 compared to Texas 36.1. Their best wins are twice over KSU (19), OU (22), and Iowa (42), compared to Texas two wins over aggy (8) and against OU (22). They finished fairly well at 6-4, compared to Texas 5-5, but that stretch also included their two worst losses of the season. Overall they have the same number of wins as Texas, and one less loss. They were 1-1 vs Texas. SOS is 19, compared to Texas at 17. They finished conference at 9-9, compared to Texas 8-10.

Most people think that ISU is a lock as the fifth team from the big 12. I’m not arguing that. I think it will go that way. But ISU and Texas appear to be very, very close. KU could have sealed this up, I think, without the major injury. But, the 3-7 finish and a couple of bad losses are going to kill them.

Otherwise at the bottom of the bracket I see sixteen teams looking for 13 spots that are very tough calls. I have those sixteen teams (in no particular order) as Texas, ISU, KU, USC, FL, VU, BYU, James Madison, Michigan, Michigan State, Temple, Middle Tennessee State, Gonzaga, Arkansas, WVU, and St Bonaventure. I think the last five of those are clearly in. That leaves eight spots for the other eleven teams. Right now I would put Texas ahead of six of those last 11. So, I think they should be in. But there is no guarantee, conference tournaments can mess things up quickly.

In some ways an eleven seed, which seems likely at this point, would be better than the dreaded 8/9. A six seed matchup is still very winnable when Texas plays to their ability. A win then brings a second round game against a three seed instead of a one seed. The real trick is to have a better season and get into the top of the bracket. But, all you can do is play the games that are scheduled one at a time. Bring it on. Whoever it is, beat the hell out of them, Texas!
 
I like Creme's bracket if that is anything close to what the NCAA will do. Again, Texas playing like they did those final three regular season games could win against any of those in Creme's bracket. If they don't, it won't matter who they are matched up against.

You have to think that last game really left a seriously bad taste that the team wants to erase.

A couple of things, AG ended up with a double double. The team shot almost 80% from the FT line w/o their top FT shooter getting to the line.
 
Thanks for the additional insight. I guess if I was really industrious I could figure out who the 30 or so automatic invites were, and from there which were ranked in the top 60 of the RPI (or RPIs as I think there are several out there), and then rank who was left. But that would be way too much work! Plus, the committee uses a completely different RPI anyway, and this is where I think the Horns might also be helped a little. I recall last year that there were one, or perhaps a couple of teams that had a pretty high RPI in the published rankings (mid 30's I think) and who were left out in lieu of some other at-larges with considerably lower rankings (50's perhaps?). I don't recall the teams or details, though some others may, but I do recall the committee saying they had their own formula that didn't always match the other rankings. And I think this focused a lot on quality wins, and of course those bad losses we've discussed at length. All of the RPI's look at those things so not sure how the selection folk's version differs, or how they weigh various criteria. But certainly the Horns had more of those quality wins, and lost to higher rated teams, than many other so-called bubble teams. I thnk our wins were better also, as evidenced by the fact we're the only squad (other than Baylor) to beat the Ags twice this season. And of course, our RPI keeps improving evey time the Ags win. Can't say I ever root for the Ags, but their two wins in the conf tourney have certainly helped our cause.
 
Yeah, when I looked I tried to pay attention to quality wins, and bad losses in particular. It seems like the committee, whatever formula they use, likes to see quality and in particular signature wins, and really hates bad losses. On those two counts Texas has an advantage over most of those teams.

Of all the teams that I mentioned only Texas, Middle Tennessee, WVU, VU, and Arkansas have wins against top ten rpi teams. Texas is the only one with two. No one has more than three against top 25 rpi, and Texas has three.

Some teams have some rather bad losses……Michigan State looks in fairly good shape until you notice that they lost to rpi 113, 123, and 203. USC has nine wins against top 100 rpi teams, but 6 are against 50-100, and only one is against a top 25 team. They also have losses against rpi 108, 110, and 225. Michigan only has 5 wins against top 100 teams, one against top 25, and a loss to rpi 166. James Madison looks good until you realize that 7 of their eight wins against top 100 teams are 50-100 and they have a loss to rpi 191. BYU has 7 top 100 wins, and two that are top 25. But four are 50-100 and they have losses to rpi 137 and 279. Even WVU, who seems to be a lock with a top 10 win and 10 top 100 wins, has five of those against 50-100 and losses to rpi 130 and 165. Florida looks like a serious bubble team that only gets in if the SEC gets eight teams. They have six wins against top 100 teams, 3 top 25, and 3 50-100, with a loss to rpi 117.

Anyway, nothing is guaranteed. And, at this point it is difficult to complain about any decisions that the committee makes. But, Texas compares pretty favorably with most of the teams that should be filling out the bracket.
 
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