Best Worst Preseason Predictions

[Beau Vine]

This guy has been doing this for several years and it's one of my favorite blog entries annually.

Unfortunately, he didn't evaluate Wulaw.

(Or me, since I said after the Tejada trade that the Astros would win 76 games instead of 72.)

 

[Wulaw Horn]

Hey-

I said the astros were going to be good and they have been. I was just wrong about how they got there but way more right then you were about how they would finish. But keep ankle biting by all means.

According to the last thread we thrashed it out on you seemed to agree with the idea that the astros should roll over and die so that the prognosticators could be correct.

I think I had the astros for 88 wins at the beginning of the year. I thought they'd get there with better offense then they've shown (though at times it's carried them). Instead, they used really good bullpen (for most of the season) and some stretches of really good starting pitching and an excellent bench.

 

[ppahorn]

I had 5 over picks before the year.

Devil Rays Over 74 - Fantastic / out of the park

Brewers Over 84.5 -- Looked fantastic about a month ago but only going to squeak by. Thank god for CC Sabathia

Rangers over 75 - Sweated this one out the last month or so but finally hit

Dbacks over 87.5 -- After their fast start this just didn't happen.

Indians over 90 -- Yuck, yuck and more yuck.

All and all. Not too bad.

 

[Huckleberry]

Someone in the comments section asked what RMSE predicting 81 wins for every team would yield. The answer, using today's standings and projecting final win totals, is 10.82 for the RMSE. So only the O/U, Neyer, and PECOTA beat that prediction method. The O/U is currently at 10.69 based on today's standing and not Sunday's.

Nice.

 

[Wulaw Horn]

Huck-

Similarly, every year I enter one entry in the NCAA tournament as the selection commitee's entry (IOW I pick every game by seeding).

That bracket has never once won any of my tournaments, but it finishes in the top20 percent or so every single year.

 

[HenryGandorf]

wulaw, i do the same, but use point spreads (obviously in the first round only) and it's always up there.