Finally the B12 issued a "Rough draft" of the WBB conference schedule.The Link It states that some dates may be changed due to TV time slots, but I look for everything to largely remain the same.
Now that we have an Idea of the full schedule, it is never too early to lay your predictions on the table. I'll go first!! It is a bit ambitious, but im looking for KA to do what she's always done and thats build on the foundation already in place, and win w/ the talent that she has.
I look for us to go 24-5 to close out the regular season schedule. During that stretch, I also look for us to go on win streaks of 10 (to close out the non-conf portion) and 5 (1/5-1/19), and 5 (1/26-2/13). I have us losing our first game to St. Johns, which I actually wouldnt be surprised to see us win. Then I have us going on that 10 game w streak to close out the non conf schedule. I think we lose our first conf schedule @Iowa St. and then win the next 5. I think have us losing on the road @KU and winning the next 5. I look for us to finish the season 4-2 losing @Tech, and @Baylor.
If you'll notice during our second 5 game w streak I have us beating Baylor in Austin. Like I said, the predicitions are a bit ambitious. And of course all predictions are contingent upon the health of the team, and Imani's health in particular. Hopfully this is the season that we've been waiting for and deserve. Anything less than a Sweet 16 finish would be a bust in my eyes.
I think an official announcement needs to be made: Someone has put crack in the kool-aid.
I will be dancing in the streets with a 24-5 record, but realistically, at least for the first half of the season this team will be worse than last year's team.
1. A brand new point guard: takes time to gel no matter how good she is. Remember what this team looked like when Yvonne got into early foul trouble - expect a lot more of that until well into conference play.
2. A brand new coach, takes time to implement her schemes, players feel abandoned by departing coach, time for new coach to earn trust, etc.
3. The top freshman recruit is injured - time of recovery currently uncertain.
4. Tough conference, no gimmes.
The OOC schedule is mostly easy so hopefully the team gets some relatively easy confidence building wins. With a healthy and focused Imani Stafford, TX finishes 5 or 6 in conference. If she is out, somewhere between 8 and 10.
20-9 is my estimate for the ceiling of this team: 2 OOC losses. 2 losses to Baylor - no way anyone not called CT has a chance next year to break their win streak. Road losses at KS, OK, ISU, KSU, WVU.
Realistically 16-13: If Davis is healthy, KS beats us at home, also likely that we lose at Tech (TX wins in Lubbock are hard to come by), OSU could win in Stillwater and WVU who returns nearly everyone beats us in Austin. Again a bubble team and a squeak into the NCAAs and a first round loss.
My fear - 14-15 or worse. We fail to defend home court against Tech or OK, and blow an OOC game we shouldn't, Iowa perhaps.
You don't replace two excellent senior starting guards, the leading shot blocker in school history, add a new coach and bunch of freshmen and JUCO players and get better immediately. TX returns fewer assists, points, and blocks than the significant majority of other big 12 teams.
It is a long road ahead. Pass me the kool-aid, I need a big gulp.
One thing I know is that this team will be able to defend. And of you can keep people under 50 points a game, then you have a shot. If you have Stafford healthy, we have the Second best post rotation in the league. I look for KA to beat people by taking away their strengths, not necessarily blowing them away with our talent. I certainly don't see us falling below 20 wins. We return the second leading scorer, Cokie has had her first healthy summer and I point out again that Stafford was by far the most dominant defensive player in this recruiting class. If she's healthy, good luck to other teams trying to score in the paint on us. W/ everything OSU has lost, I don't see them beating us. And I don't see WVU beating us either. If you look at the tournament game again you'll see that we missed a ton of open shots, we beat ourselves. And I think this years team is already deeper, and more potent on offense.
Even though Texas has finished just under 20 wins the last two seasons, I don't see any reason not to expect at least 20 wins and probably better season. That's the minimum I expect and this team will the non conference schedule to gel and learn to play together. There's enough tough games there to prepare them for Big 12 play. If there are no major injuries, as has happened the last couple of years, this team will have at least the second best post rotation in the league. I'm not worried about the guards. There's depth and good talent in those spots.
Still have to look at the whole schedule before I make my prediction but I expect the Horns to protect their homecourt better than they have done the last two seasons.
my guess on the record: 22-7, excluding the conference & NCAA tournaments. I'll be happy if they reach the round of 32 this season.
Gotta remember that six of the players have yet to play a game in burnt orange. Two are JC transfers. Six players are frosh and sophs with only Nneka having gotten any significant minutes from that group. Going to be an interesting season, that's for sure.