Astros countdown to the playoffs

B

BA93

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Longshot but that makes it that much more fun to follow.

With MIL loss to SD tonight, the Astros are 6 games back with 22 games remaining. I figure they need to go 18-4 or 17-5, along with some help, to win the wild card.

If only they hadn't gone 2-7 so far against the Pirates. They have 7 more with the Pirates so they need to take out the broom.
 
Agreed on everything above....very big longshot...record against Pirates is killing the team right now...need to take care of business over the final 7 against the Bucs....

and if Milwaukee were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, you are dead on re: what the Astros record needs to be the rest of way. puts things in perspective to see what an uphill climb it's going to be, but I suppose anything's possible.
 
if anyone can fold, it's the brew crew. and if anyone can go 4-18 when they need to win, it's the stros. so we'll see.
 
The Astros may only be 6 games back from Milwaukee, but there are two other teams they have to jump. I'm as big an Astros homer as there is, but the odds of them making the wildcard fall somewhere between slim and none.

The Brewers, Cardinals, and Phillies all need to play .500 ball or worse, and the Astros have to continue their recent torrid pace.

You're right though, it does make it a lot more fun to look at the standings and wonder what they have to do to make it. If they can pull it off, they'd have a ton of momentum going into the playoffs (a la Colorado 2007).
 
The cardinals and phils are so close to us as to be nearly a non-factor. If we play well enough to catch the brew crew by finishing something like 17-5 we will race past the cards and phils. 1 or 2 games is nothing. If the phils did somehow manage to stay ahead of us by matching a 17-5 or so they will have beaten the mets a lot and won the division and will probably knock the Mets below us. St. Louis is the suck- they ain't going 16-6 with that crappy rotation and bullpen.

Note- I am in no way claiming the astros are going to go 17-5 nor that this would be good enough to catch the brew crew (who we'd need to go 11-11 to tie- which is well below their season winning percentage to date) just saying that if we did we'd blow by the other two teams with a miniscule lead on us.
 
I think if the 'stros hit Wulaw's run prediction from April, we're golden.

That would be 272 runs in 22 games, or about 12.36 per, btw.

Sorry, Wulaw, just a little ribbin'.
 
I was bored at work yesterday and made this spreadsheet to determine what needed to happen for the Astros to win the wild card.

Astros playoff scenarios

Of course, then the Astros lost while almost everybody else won yesterday, further proving that I probably should've just let well enough alone and actually done some work yesterday.

The Astros have 6 games against contending teams (if you count the Marlins) and 15 games against sub-.500 teams. Depending on matchups, 14-7 is probably doable the rest of the way. Unfortunately, at that pace the Brewers could do no better than 6-15. They have 10 games against contending teams and 11 against sub-.500 teams. Of course, we'd also have to hope that the Phillies go 10-11 or worse and the Cardinals 12-9. Too much to rely on.
 
20 games to go, down by 7. MIL winning the last 2 nights really hurt the changes. the biggest problem is that MIL isn't sitting back comfortable with the WC because they have a good shot at catching the Cubs, who are falling apart. We need the Brewers to start thinking that the season is over and getting ready for the playoffs.
 
'stros just finished off taking 2 of 3 at Colorado (where we've not done well, generally).

Mil - L
StL - W
Phi - W
Hou - W

Mil --
Phi -3.5
StL -5
Hou -6

7 at home next - 4 with Pittsburgh and 3 with Chicago. We'll know if slim leaves town after those 7.

Phillies and Mets are playing 2 today, so the WC standings will change by a half game.
 
I don't expect a miracle, but they're only a couple of games out of second, so they no longer have to leap a bunch of teams. And the Phils and Brewers play four in Philly this weekend.
 
Softly-

It's funny- I was thinking about that thread just a couple of weeks ago and how spectacularly I was wrong.

The fact that this offense was not a top 2 or 3 offense in the league still kinda surprises me. Pence underperformed and Matsui and Wiggington were injured for lots of the year, and Bourn and Catcher were just awful. Above average seasons from Berkman, Lee and the supporting guys on the bench but other than that not a ton went right.

We looked like world beaters for a week or two at a time, but I guess not enough guys that do a good job of getting on base. Situational hitting was the best I've seen from the astros in some time, seemingly, but that's anecdotal, I haven't run any numbers or anything.
 
The near complete lack of production from the leadoff spot hamstrung this team's production. As exciting as Bourn CAN be, if he can't get on base at better than a .330 clip (.284 this year), he just can't be our CF. Matsui in that spot all year might have helped a bit, but that still would have left us with a 7-8-9 black hole, and with Pence underperforming for much of the year, that's a good top 5 with an awful back 4.

Pence will be better next year, I think, so that leaves 2 slots open. If we settle on Matsui leading off, we simply need a FA upgrade at either CF or C, and hope we can slightly better production for the other slot internally.

And I was with in thinking this would be a very good offense club back in April.
 
Nice. Houston held on to win 3-2.

Cincy just scored 3 in the top of the 9th to take a 5-4 lead over the Brewers. If Cincy can hold; Houston will be 5 games back with 18 to go.
 
Softly-

The fact of the matter is Bourn HAS to be the leadoff guy for this offense to work.

Matsui is basaically the perfect #2 hitter that doesn't cost 18 million a year (unless you can pay for a carlos beltran who is a perfet 2 and miscast imo as a run producer) and that makes Berkman, Lee, Pence, Wigginton, Tejada, Catcher if I were filling out the lineup card next year. Pence gotta hit like he can and Bourn gotta be the lead off guy. If those two things happen I think that's a great lineup that scores 900 + runs, but I was wrong about that this year.
 
Good gawd, wulaw, not again. You don't score 900+ runs with guys like Michael Bourn batting leadoff, Kaz Matsui batting second, and a black hole at catcher. You score 900+ runs by bashing the ball from 1 through 8.

The 2003 Atlanta Braves were the last team to score 900+ and they hit 235 homers and posted a team OPS+ of 118. Everyone in their starting lineup reached double figures in homers and had at least 60 RBI. Their starting outfield hit over 100 homers and their catcher hit 43.

OTOH, the Astros are on pace to score 723 this season. Michael Bourn could turn into Rickey Henderson and Hunter Pence could hit .400, and that still won't add 180 runs. Seriously man, think about the numbers -- you're asking for run scoring to increase 25%.

Pence will get better, but other than him, the Astros really only have three good hitters -- Wigginton, who's having a career year, and Berkman and Lee, both of whom are 32, and 32-year-old fat guys tend to get worse as they age, not better. Tejada has the 12th-best OPS among ML shortstops; he's 34 and his OPS+ has dropped five years in a row. And I have no idea what a "perfect #2 hitter" is, but of the guys who usually bat #2, I'd much rather have Dustin Pedroia, BJ Upton, or JJ Hardy than Kaz Matsui.

I'll bet money that the 2009 Astros don't even score 800 runs.
 
I tend to agree. I admit I had some high hopes for this team, hitting wize, coming into the season with Tejeda-Berkman-Lee-Pence-Wiggington being a modern murderers' row. But it hasnt worked out that way. And I think you are correct that the lack of production from the top of the line-up may be the primary key. Which is too bad in the light of the seasons Berkman and Lee were having. I also put too much stock in the effect of finally having production from SS and catcher.
One other factor that doesnt get much ink is that pitchers have learned how to throw in MMP. The best hitting Stro team of all-time was 2000, the first year there. They scored 938 runs, hit 249 HRs and had a team slugging of .477. But pitchers adjusted and now MMP is nowhere near the bash box it was criticized as being back then. For 2007, MMP was not even in the top 10 as hitter friendly (Coors, Wigley, Camden, Cinci, Philly, CWS, the BOB, Fenway, Yankers, Clev). MMP was actually ranked as 3rd friendiest park for pitchers!

So, we may never again see Astros team hitting like we did in 2000.

Still, back to the theme of the post, you have to give them credit for not mailing it in. They have at least made September interesting. It doesnt seem to matter who the manager or GM is, they play better late in the year. And, this year, they are doing it with some pretty wacky line-ups. Keep it up guys!



The Link
 
Joe Sheehan is a no - talent **** stick that is missing the general point of being a fan of the game- that you try your hardest and try to win.

He's pissed off that the astros are not nearly as inept as he thought they should be and is arguing that they should lose this year and lose next year, which is absurd.

Beau- I said that I was spectacularly wrong about this year and I might well be about next year, but I said this team only works if Bourn is a true leadoff hitter (which means a 350 + OBP). Matsui is miscast at leadoff.

And yes, I realize that they would need a murder's row to score 900 runs, but that's basically what I believe going Berkman, Lee, Pence Wiggington and Tejada 3-7 is, if you substitute in a good leadoff man and a good 2 hitter which is what I think Matsui is. Also, they have a pretty legit bench that can do some things which helps.

All this is predicated upon Bourn being the guy that I thought he would be, getting on base at a reasonable clip and letting everyone hit where they should in the lineup. That and health which the astros have had neither of particularly this year. And Hunter Pence and Miguel Tejada not being horrible for long stretches of time (Tejada might be too old but Pence seriously regressed for much of the season- while I was expecting him to turn into a plus player).

But, just so my conjecture isn't unclear, that steaming pile of Horse **** from Baseball Perspective would be most appropriately used to line birdcages or wrap fishes.

09 could well see the astros picked by many/most to win the wild card and contend for the division if they do nothing more than sign a #2 pitcher like Sheets or if they sign Sabathia (an ace who would still pitch behind Roy, imo) while bringing back the rest of the team more or less intact.
 
Joe-

I don't know how much it is that pitchers learned to throw in minute maid vs extending the fence up to the catwalks in the LC alley (where a disproportionate amount of fly balls go). It now takes a good poke to hit the ball out anywhere from the RF line all the way over to that triangle of the crawford boxes going back to meet the rest of the field. That's a long way height wise to hit a ball at the distance measured. CF has always been deep and RC is legit. Berkman has long contended, and the numbers have backed him up, that it's a very tough park for LH hitters. Guys like Jim Edmonds that have seemed to specialize on hitting pop ups down the line notwithstanding. I also think RH that go there and try to pull the ball into the Boxes get into bad habits. It doesn't hurt your swing to let the ball get in on you and go the other way with it the way it does to try to get pull happy and jerk one down the line.
 
Hold the Seattle Mariners on a pedestal for having the courage to face a 100 loss season (Didn't they spend 117 million?) Idiotically laughable.

Admonish the Astros for trading for Hawkins and Wolf? They gave up nothing of any useful value. Even if not in the playoffs McClane could be said to have the obligation to give the ticket holders their money's worth.

Also- Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt all have no-trade clauses. Just who in the hell would anyone look at the astros roster (other than those three) and say- damn, I have to have them and I have to trade some good young talent to get them?

Hunter Pence? Maybe, but he's good (or at least average) young, and cheap, so unless you are getting someone else or a lot of someone else's that are good, young and cheap what's the freaking point?

The Astros have no talent to speak of in the Minors and no hope of developing a superstar in the minors. So, the only way to improve that is to draft well and sign all your picks (which they signed almost all) and/or to trade veteran stars for young talent.

As already discussed the astros can't trade their vets (nor do I think they want to or should).

Now, the Astros are saying that they are putting extensive effort into rebuilding their minor league system. Good for them.

At the same time they are competing for a playoff spot at the major league level (again, good for them- even if they fail to make it).

Wade put every band aid possible on this team to make it one worthy of the fans paying their hard earned money to watch and generally succeeded well. He did that all at no cost to the future (unless you consider the guys we traded away to be key building blocks to the future- and none of them seemed to indicate that at all this year).

I might have rather kept Luke Scott and dealt Pence if you could get a couple young pitchers under club control for him. That's not usually the return for anyone less than a super star, which Pence clearly isn't.

Patton had arm troubles that both teams were well aware of- Baltimor just wanted to dump Tejada b/c he was a locker room cancer and he's been awesome by all accounts in houston, and his play is infectous.

Joe is a pompous ******* that wouldn't be writing for BP from his mothers basement if he was even 1/4 as clever as he believes himself to be. He'd have Ed Wade's job then.

I really can't believe how much of a stubborn jackass he is to have the gall to argue that the astros are ******* up by continuing to win. It doesn't fit his narrative or perspective so he's going to rip them for it, and look like a fool waving his *** around for no particularly reason.

Rob Neyer, no fan of the astros in the least, is critical of this stance in his chat today, and in a column from last week. Says it's too little, too late, but it's fun for the fans, that's what the game is about, and they are not likely to ever miss a guy like Chad Reinke (who they dealt in the Wolf trade).
 
BaseballProspectus thought it was a good idea for the Astros to "go for it" before the season began in their annual. Now Sheehan with his crystal ball of hindsight thinks it was stupid because the Cubs and Brewers are soo good this year.
 
Another win for the Stros. what is that. 12 out of 13 or something like that. 4.5 back right now. Lets hope Cincy can take Mil again.
 
Florida took down Philly. Cubs and Cards tied at 3. Cincy and the Brewers tied a 4 in the 9th - Cincy has a man on 2nd with no out.
 
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