ASU comes into Thursday’s game with a 7-2 record and a four game winning streak. They have losses to OU (70-56) and to Florida (65-60). The Horns are coming off a great win over Tenn Sunday. The concern is that they not have a let down against the 21 ranked Sun Devils. The Horns will be looking to extend their record to 10-0 against a deep and experienced Sun Devil team.
The Sun Devils are as tall as the Lady Vols. Of the five post players, one is 6-2, two are 6-3, one is 6-4 and another is 6-6. Three of them are high school All Americans. The starters are Sybil Dosty (6-3 Sr. C) and Kayli Murphy (6-2 Jr. F/C) who started the last game in place of Lauren Lacy (6-3 Sr. F/C) who had started the previous eight contests. The Sun Devils are guard oriented although Dosty gives them a good inside presence.
Briann January (5-8 Sr. G) is the leading scorer at 14.3 ppg. Dymond Simon (5-5 Jr. G) is the second leading scorer at 12.0 ppg. January is coming off a season in 2007-08 where she was named an HM AA and the PAC 10 defensive player of the year. Danielle Orsillo (5-9 Jr. G) is the other starting G. Those three are the top 3pt shooters for the Sun Devils. January has hit 28-34 (49%), Simon on 16-41 (39%), and Orsillo on 8-19 (41%). The Horns will also have to keep an eye on Nia Fanakia, (5-8 Sr. G) who has hit on 4-5 3s. January, Simon, and Orsillo have taken 80% of the total 3s attempted by the team. The trio together is hitting 44% of their 3s. The Horns’ perimeter defense will need to cover these four when they are on the floor. To date, no other Sun Devil has had success from BTA.
Dosty is second on the team in FG% at 63%. However, she is last in shooting the ball among the starters other than Murphy who has been available for only four games and has taken only 10 FGs this season. Simon is the shooter on the team, having taken 105 FGs, 20% of the team’s total FGA. January is the best shooter among the starting guards, making 51% of her FGs while Orsillo is connecting on 42% and Simon on 34%. January also leads the team in steals (3.6 spg) and assists (4.9 apg). Five other Sun Devils have between 11 and 15 steals. Five other players have between 24 and 14 assists as ASU assists on 69% of their made FGs. Like Texas, ASU looks for the open shooter and does an excellent job of it. Dosty’s 7.3 rpg leads the team while Becca Tobin (6-4 Soph. F) is second at 6.9. Like the Horns, the Sun Devils rely on a team approach to outboard opponents by an average of 10 rebounds per game.
The Sun Devils rely on TOs to gain an advantage. They are getting 5 more steals per game than they give up. This leads to a plus 6 advantage in TOs. While ASU is an outstanding shooting team (46% on FGs; 41% from BTA; and 74% on FTs), they are not stopping teams from hitting their shots. Opponents are making 44% of their FGs and 37% of their 3s. ASU appears to be vulnerable from BTA and Erika and Kat should be able to take advantage. Brit may also be open from BTA.
The starting guards for ASU are small, with Simon at 5-5; Orsillo at 5-9 and January at 5-8.While Simon is the one to take the most shots, January is the more overall threat offensively. Not only is she the best shooter per percentage from the field among the backcourt starters, she’s the leading 3pt threat and sets up the others as well. Defensively, she has twice as many steals as any other Sun Devil. She is the top rebounder among the guards. Figure her for the straw that stirs the drink for the Sun Devils. My guess is that Brit will draw this defensive assignment to start off. The Horns will be able to rotate others on her as well.
With the way they shoot the three, I’m not sure that the Horns will spend much time in a zone. They take 15 3s a game and make six. Give them open looks and they will make them. With the shot blockers the Horns have in both Ashleys, locking down the outside and funneling shooters inside seems to be a better idea.
The Sun Devils have 17 players on their roster. Haley Parsons (5-5 Fr. G) is redshirting and Kali Bennett (6-5 Soph. C) is sitting out after transferring. Janae Fulcher (6-3 Fr. F) is listed on the roster but either has not gotten in to a game or maybe redshirting after all. Eleven of the 14 active players are averaging between 11 and 29 minutes a game. Fatigue should not be a factor for either team.
The Horns are led as usual by Brit (17.6 ppg), Kat (12.6 ppg) and Erika (10.7 ppg). Erika had a horrible day shooting against Tennessee, going 0-9 from the field and 0-6 from BTA. I don’t expect that to happen again. Five other players average between 5 and 7 ppg.
As a team, the Horns are hitting 49% of their FGs, with Kristen’s 56% tops. Six of the Horns are hitting between 52% and 56%. Three of those are guards, Brit, Yvonne and Ashleigh. The Horns are hitting a solid 38% from BTA with Brit’s 48% tops. Kat and Erika, considered as the top 3pt shooters on the team, are hitting 36 and 34% respectively. Those three have taken 106 of the 141 3s attempted by the team. Earnie, Carla and Yvonne are also dangerous from BTA. On FTs, the team is average, making 70% of FTs. Kristen (92%). Kat (87%), Erika (80%), Brit (79%), and Carla (78%) are the players the Horns want on the line.
Kat leads the team in rebounding with an average of 6.8 rpg while six others average between 3 and 5 rpg. Carla is the team leader with 53 assists but six others have double digits assists for the season. The Horns know how to share the ball in looking for the open shot. In blocks, the story is Ashley, both of them. Lindsey leads with 26 for the season with six of those coming against Tennessee. Gayle is second with 19. Five players have double digit steals with a total of nine players having at least six steals in the season.
The Horns rely on defense although everyone enjoys scoring. The scoring margin of plus 32.7 is among the best in the nation. They rank among the top three in pretty much every offensive and defensive category among conference teams. They have struck a balance between offense and defense where one feeds the other and it’s hard to say which comes first.
TEAM STATISTICS UT ASU
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SCORING................. 756 666
Points per game....... 84.0 74.0
Scoring margin........ +32.7 +19.2
FIELD GOALS-ATT......... 279-573 248-536
Field goal pct........ .487 .463
3 POINT FG-ATT.......... 54-141 55-134
3-point FG pct........ .383 .410
3-pt FG made per game. 6.0 6.1
FREE THROWS-ATT......... 144-204 115-155
Free throw pct........ .706 .742
F-Throws made per game 16.0 12.8
REBOUNDS................ 426 338
Rebounds per game..... 47.3 37.6
Rebounding margin..... +13.0 +10.1
ASSISTS................. 164 170
Assists per game...... 18.2 18.9
TURNOVERS............... 153 164
Turnovers per game.... 17.0 18.2
Turnover margin....... +4.6 +6.0
Assist/turnover ratio. 1.1 1.0
STEALS.................. 99 121
Steals per game....... 11.0 13.4
BLOCKS.................. 64 36
Blocks per game....... 7.1 4.0
ATTENDANCE.............. 29387 11584
Home games-Avg/Game... 6-4898 5-2317
SCORE BY PERIODS: 1st 2nd Total
------------------------- ---- ---- ----
Texas.................... 348 408 - 756
Arizona State............. 315 351 - 666
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This could be a tough game for the Horns if they are “down”after the Tennessee game. ASU has comparable height inside and more experienced guards. They will be a tough challenge for the Horns. While ASU is perimeter oriented, they do have a decent inside game that the Horns can’t afford to ignore.
If the Horns don’t play flat, they should pick up win number 10 by double digits.
Looking at the stats, they are pretty even. One team has a slight edge here, the other an edge there. The Horns’ defensive pressure on the perimeter should keep ASU from getting their usual points from BTA while making it difficult to score inside.
The
texassports.com is up.
KVET 1300 AM will carry the game locally while XM Satellite Radio Channel 231 will also carry it. Should be a mild night after several very cold evenings.