Are these early signals?

it seems anything is possible, it could even be that 2008 is going to look miniature compared to what we are on the verge of…..
 
What does your link have to do with your point? JP's trading loss has no implications, long-term, for the market. The situation in Europe has been known for 2 years now. Unemployment is actually trending upward.

In my opinion we will not double dip. We got out of the woods there about 18 months back. However I tend to agree that the market seems overvalued. I have a lot of my employers stock (a lot for me) and though I don't have a great need for cash, I will probably sell here shortly. I do not think Obama will be ousted and as such, cap gains will go from 15% to 24%. While that'd be meaningful to me, it's not the end of the world. However what does scare me is that this impending tax increase will increase selling in the 3rd and 4th quarters that equities values will be driven downward, possibly sharply.
 
I'm not sure I agree with you. Is that what your bank's economic team is saying? The Chinese economy is stalling and the situation in Europe has not stabilized. IMO, we are not out of the woods yet. I am not convinced that we will see an improved economy or another recession. My guess would be a stagnant economy for the rest of the year.
 
There is a lot to not like out there right now. We have known the euro zone has issues for years but at the same time we know nothing. We don't know how bad it will get for the countries already in trouble and how many other euro countries will get dragged into the mess. We don't know how this will affect china since the EU is their largest trading partner. None of this even touches on own own issues, just the things we have no control over.
 
Unemployment is getting better. There isn't any way around it. It's still not good and won't be good for a while. Everyone knows about various metrics for employment. Any metric shows it's getting better despite Obama's policies.
 
What we know about Europe is priced into the market. It's what we don't know that scares me. Obviously, some of the fear of the unknown is priced in, but there is still a lot of potential downside.
 
Uninformed,

Obama will take NY, CA anyway. Dems always do. He will not will FL, NC, CO and VA again. OH is a real toss up this time around too.
 
Larry there is downside waking up every day. I am not overly confident here. It's just what I think all things being equal. You're right about what we don't know - nobody knew the extent of '08 except a few. And nobody really knew about timing of it all except a lucky few.

Europe doesn't concern me nearly as much as china.
 
If you have been listening to economists they have been predicting a slow economic recovery here at home since 09. When Is low they said 2015 or 2016. The events of 08 were simply so broad and deep in the real estate and banking industries. Now none of this really has to do with the main point. Has the DOW been way overvalued hovering just above 13,000 for a little while? And is it due for a dip...not to 6500, but say to 11,000?
 
The Dow traditionally dips or drops whenever the White House has a chance to change parties. It has not always happened but the change in philosophical business practices scares investors in both directions.

I think you will see a gradual slide of the DOW, nothing huge unless something like Greece actually happens.

In a presidential election year, the DOW traditionally slumps.
 
Employment statistics show how many people are working (or not) and the percentage of people that are unemployed AND searching for work. As the unemployment rate continues to fall, the actual number of people employed has remained fairly constant (more people are dropping out of the work force and disability claims are rising to offset the loss of unemployment benefits). Considering that the population continues to grow, this is not an optimistic statistic.

Also, the quality of pay - the median pay would be a good statistic - isn't getting any better. This is reflected by the fact that federal withholding receipts are not appreciably rising as would be expected if the economy were picking up.

Many regions have benefited by the shale gas/fracking boom. Municipalities and states such as Texas have seen increased tax receipts, but it many indications are that we are about to see a bust as the low price of gas is beginning to hurt the balance sheet of many of these companies. Investors and employees look out below.

Rex says the equities probably will see a correction, but nothing catastrophic. How much of that assumption is based on market driven cycles that ebb and flow, and how much of that assumption is based on fed/central bank intervention (i.e. the next phase of QE or something similar) otherwise known as a centrally planned economy ala USSR?
 
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