anyone care to do a tcu vs texas breakdown?

T

tamster

500+ Posts
i guess both teams are stacked with starting pitching. but how do our bullpens compare? hitters? defense? coaching?

last year was heartbreaking (in baseball, volleyball, and football). nice that we got the ship righted with the men's swimming championship recently. would like to continue the momentum with baseball.

skc
 
looks like it's pitching against pitching.
The Link

Going against a first round draft pick, who may or may not be their #1 starter.

25 innings of scoreless baseball anybody?
 
I am not very sure. TCU is a much much better hitting team than us. Top 20 in every offensive category (BA, runs, hits, bunts, homeruns, slugging percentage), while we are hardly top-100 or top-150 in anything! .. Add in a pitching staff with depth who are top-10 too, and they could be a nightmare for anybody..

We may be getting ready to face the very best team we will play this year (including may be even everybody we will face at Omaha if we make it there). I really only give a 55% chance for us to advance. I am not a doomsday guy or anything; just being reasonable in my expectations....

R.J.
 
that's what i was worried about. if you assume the excellent pitching will cancel out, then it's really up to our bats and defense to carry us. Although, we played relatively clean baseball this past weekend (minus the brainfart by our 3b on the bunt vs. ULaLa that ended up costing us a run), not sure how much of an edge we have in the fielding department. So, it may be up to our bats.

How much of a hinderance does playing at the Disch give us statistically? Would we actually be better ranked nationally in offensive categories if we played in a hitters' park? Probably a little bit (at least in the HR and slugging areas). Will it be enough to cancel out TCUs advantage?

We'll see. I too am hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. Oh well, we are DOOMED!

skc
 
Yes, the Disch does affect our batting numbers every year; it is noticeable and I m sure statistically significant too. But that doesn't mean that our numbers would be top-20 (or even top75) in batting, had we had a field that is average in batter-firendliness. Our SOS is probably a little better than TCU (#45 vs #56 per Boyd) - but we can't say their numbers are against total powderpuffs either. Generally TCU may have more of a batting advantage on us compared to the pitching advantage we have - that is my hunch.

But our pichers have consistently shown the "winning spirit" all year - that is, doing their best to not lose whatever leads our bats create. I don't know if TCU's starting three are as good in that department. So, we *may* have an intangible winning edge there - and the tie is on our home field.

So, our top three pitchers better be ready to battle it out. If we allow no more than 3 runs in each game, I am sure we will will win at least 2 of the 3. But I don't think we have any margin of error at all in pitching against TCU, because our bats may not be good enough to manufacture a whole lot against their pitching if we fall behind much in any game.

R.J.
 
Despite being identified as the second-best team in this tournament, Texas has far and away drawn the toughest Super Regional assignment. Why is that? Because TCU deserved to host a Super Regional of its own.

The Horned Frogs have three solid starting pitchers (Steven Maxwell, Kyle Winkler and Matt Purke) whose combined win-loss record is 35-2. Despite being TCU's ace, Purke is virtually identical to Texas' No.3, Brandon Workman, in terms of ERA and record (13-0 and 3.40 for Purke versus 12-1 and 3.43 for Workman). Ditto for Sunday starter Maxwell, whose 11-1 mark and 2.51 ERA practically mirror Texas No.2 Cole Green's 11-1 record and 2.63 ERA.

Texas' Friday starter, Taylor Jungmann, boasts the best ERA (2.10) of any starting pitcher listed, yet his 7-3 record is easily the worst. Winkler, TCU's No.2, comes in with a 3.05 ERA and an 11-1 mark. Given these similarities, it'll be interesting to see who starts Friday's game and how that matchup will play out.

The Longhorns hold a clear advantage in the bullpen. The Horned Frogs essentially have two closers (Kaleb Merck, 2-1 record, three saves and a 1.08 ERA; and Tyler Lockwood, 6-2 record, five saves and a 2.06 ERA). Both are solid, but neither can hold a candle to the Longhorns' All-American stopper, Chance Ruffin (6-1 record, 14 saves and a 0.76 ERA).

Texas extends its bullpen edge further in middle relief. Of all the Horned Frog relievers, only Trent Appleby (3-1 record, 3.41 ERA) claims respectable numbers. The rest have ERAs of 4.57 and much, much higher.

In contrast, every Longhorn reliever has an ERA of 3.62 or lower, including five at 2.78 or lower and three at 1.97 or lower. Though impressive on paper, this might prove to be a hollow advantage because these three-game series tend to be about starting pitching and closing when both ballclubs are blessed with a trio of solid starters.

At the plate, the Horned Frogs are far and away superior. They hit for average and power.

To put that statement into perspective, realize that TCU sports a team batting average of .345 compared to Texas' .289. TCU also holds appreciable leads in slugging percentage (.566 vs. .479) and on-base percentage (.420 vs. .378). Although the Longhorns set a school record (and are continually adding to it) with 79 homeruns so far this season, the Horned Frogs have already gone yard 90 times.

Eleven TCU hitters have batting averages of .307 or higher. Discounting Cole Green's 1-for-1 showing, Texas can field only six hitters above .305.

Texas Christian is also more disciplined at the plate--the Horned Frogs have struck out 53 less times than Texas' hitters despite 156 more at-bats.

Given these figures, the key to the series, in my opinion, will be Texas' bats. But we knew this before ever glancing at a statsheet, didn't we?

Aside from a poor showing at the Big 12 Tournament, Texas' hitting has improved over the course of the season. Nevertheless, the Longhorns haven't demonstrated that they can come through with clutch hits and score runs against quality pitching. This statement is supported by ace Jungmann's 7-3 record despite a sparkling 2.10 ERA.

Personally, I believe our pitchers will deliver, but I'm not sure our bats will, and that's why I'll play devil's advocate and pick TCU in a mild series upset.

Here's hoping Walla, Loy, Shepherd, Moldenhauer, Keyes, Rupp, Lusson, Rowe and Etier prove me wrong!

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I heard a similar preview of Rice batting a few hours before our game on Sunday. I see it over and over again each year when we play the better teams...300+ averages guy after guy, daunting power numbers, etc. The better competition always seems to look so much more potent at the plate. And the numbers rarely even approach the production that results against us. Just as Rice's jam-packed stud lineup ended Sunday with a whopping 3 hits and 1 run.

I also think the key is our hitting and more specifically, that we get their relievers involved in the outcomes. But the talk of daunting batting averages (especially playing in the Mountain West)...blah blah blah. Can they hit very well? Yes. Do their gaudy numbers translate into dominating results vs. the best teams? No better than UT's will. Time and again we produce more than these clubs in the regular and postseason. What have you done for me lately? 3-hit Rice who pounded C-USA pitchers. That's my point exactly. And yes, Jungmann will pitch again so it is very relevant.

Great series expected, but I also expect Texas to once again show the numbers are a mirage when you play us for something that counts. As Augie said, we won't miss the last dance in Rosenblatt. Our pitching has a larger talent margin than most will assume, and our bats are far less outmatched as well. I even think we light up their pitching and make a statement. Horns take the super 2-0. Watch!
 
For the reasons articulated so well by GemStateJim, I fear (the healthy, respectful kind of fear) the Frogs. That being said, I think the 'Horns are up to the task--'Horns in 3.
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BTW...I realize comparison games aren't the best way to breakdown overall performance. However, TCU did play Rice also, and Boogie was also the starter of that game. Winkler went for the Frogs.

My point, we just played Rice and faced Boogie our last game, so it is somewhat comparable. Rice won 5-4 over TCU...Boogie pitched 7 innings giving up a single run...Winkler gave up 3 runs in 6. Suffice to say, Boogie and the Owls fared much better against the Baby Toads than the Mighty Horns.

Bring it on! Never too early in the week to get fired up for the supers. Let's blast these Frogs out the big boys' park. We are Texas...everyone else....just ain't.
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TCU maybe as good or better than Texas; however their conference competition seems to be a little weaker that Texas' so some of their numbers could be suspect.

No doubt Purke is tough, but Texas has faced tough pitchers most of the year. Texas maybe doomed but not DOOMED.

Time to focus.
 
Boyd's ISR numbers are usually a pretty good indicator of quality. We are 3rd and TCU 5th in his ISR. The strength of schedule is 45 for us and 56 for them. They play in a pretty good sized ball park and the batting numbers (NCAA top-20 or top-10 in every damn batting category) can't be all fluke either.

Yeah, we will win because we may be better (and have the winning edge from just being us), but this is a tough tough matchup for us... Shouldn't kid ourselves. This TCU team is legit in every way, whether they are from Mountain West or Valley East..

R.J.
 
Flip a coin, could go either way and I expect a great series. Either way a Texas team will head to Omaha.
 
seems like tcu has managed to ditch the cockroach syndrome (sport cross reference alert). hats off to them. hope to see a great series with Bevo going back home for the last Rosenblatt hurrah.
 
Great summary Gem, thanks.

This is going to be an awesome series between two great ball clubs. I agree that TCU should have hosted a Regional.

We can argue that we got the shaft and are facing the toughest matchup, however you have to look at it both ways. Given TCU should have hosted, do you really think they wanted to be paired up with Texas and be forced to play in Austin for the Super Regional.

The good thing is, whichever team wins will be in a great position to win in Omaha.

Hook 'em
 
Whichever team wins? Please! Purke and his 3.40 ERA are about to get lit up. Watch and learn. You can go 7-0 in the Mountain West with a 3.83 ERA, not at the Disch vs. the Horns in postseason. Almost 4 runs per 9 innings vs. Mountain West...are you kidding me??? Bring on the ace, please.

Just want to mention one thing that sets these staffs apart by a ton besides conference competition level. Pitching stats that are very relevant and will reflect in the outcome..

BA vs. - TCU .252, UT .219
OBP% vs. - TCU .323, UT .295
SLG% vs. - TCU .378, UT .317

We will score runs on these guys and will get to face their relievers. Will they get past Green to relief before Ruffin? Will they get past Jungmann to relief before Ruffin? I'd bet if anything it won't be much of a taste of our highly capable bullpen compared to their collection of scrubs. ;-)

Sorry, but Horns sweep Frogs 2-0. I'd much rather be Texas facing TCU, then TCU coming here facing Texas. People seem to forget the 'put yourself in their shoes' way of seeing it. Nobody in the nation wants to face this Texas team in a best of 3. Nobody!

Can't wait to be sitting in the Vegas sportsbook laughing over a stiff drink as Purke's fast ball gets rocket launched and most people don't know why such a less dangerous line-up on paper is shelling the ace.

Year-in and year-out folks...bring us the best arms in postseason...we will put up the runs. And I'd take Green and Jungmann over any pitcher they could field 100 out of 100 times. Horns will close down Rosenblatt in 2010, watch and learn ye of little faith.
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Oh yeah...much of this post is fact laced with adrenaline from the sickness I'm feeling from a football season's worth of TCU smacktalk, the article I just read on Purke, and his douchesque pictures of fist-pumping. If you missed it, he did say he wasn't interested in UT at all even though his parents and brother liked UT football. He ALWAYS rooted for OU to beat us and was a Sooner commit. Excuse me??? Did I read that right before he comes to Austin? lol

Death to Puke...I mean Purke...by way of the Horns launch pad. Moldy, Keyes, Tant, Lusson, hell it's even time for Connor Rowe to step back up and do some damage. We need Purke pain on Friday, early and often. I even changed my flight time up not to miss this Frog-fry. And if Puke pumps a fist and throws a Horns-down...I fully expect a mound charging...player or fan, doesn't matter. lol

TCU blows!!! And yes, OU does still suck at 10:51AM lol
 
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