Any chance Texas and OU are #1 and #2 come january

G

GabeRocksSocks

1,000+ Posts
Gonzaga just lost. If UConn, Pitt, and UNC lose a game, and both Texas and OY win out, that'd make the matchup between #1 and #2.

The matchup will already be between two top 5 teams if we win out, but what are the odds that the right teams fall between now and January 12th?
 
UNC has four more games in December. If they lose all four of those AND if Hansbrough is accidentally decapitated in a freak dunking mishap, THEN there is MAYBE a 50/50 chance the pollsters will drop them out of the #1 spot...MAYBE.
 
We (being OU) will drop a game or 2 between now and then. We are back to at least being decent, but the team lives and dies by Blake. Should he foul out or simply have an off night we will lose.

We should be ranked around 15-20 at this point in time IMO. Texas is easily the team to beat this year in a weak BIG 12. I mean that as no slight. You guys are very good (an young to boot) and the rest of the league should be a cake walk with OU finishing a distant 2nd or possibly 3rd.

Good luck to you guys...
 
Graeme might be the first reasonable sooner with under 1,000 posts I've read on any board since the BCS fiasco.

His reasoning is basically exactly why I said from the beginning of the year that UT is a 1 seed (maybe 2 at the worst depending on how things shake out). I just see 15-1 or 14-2 in confernece in our future. Couple that with a decent non-conference schedule and only 1 loss (hopefully no more than 2 non-conf losses for the season) and you have a 3 loss texas team staring the committee in the face.

I'm not saying we are really all that good- just a lot better than the rest of the teams in our conference.
 
Outside of UNC and several teams in the Big East, I'm not seeing a whole lot of teams that impress me. The Pac 10 looks way down. The Big Televen looks typical --- and by that, none of their teams stand out. The SEC doesn't "Wow!" me. Shoot, I'd make an argument that the Big 12 might be the 3rd best conference this season, and that's not because the Big 12 is so great.

Since the Big East isn't going to get 3 #1 seeds, someone is going to be seeded higher than they probably should. As far as I'm concerned, it might as well be Texas.

I don't think there's a huge amount of separation between OU and Texas, because I really like OU's 2 best players...especially Blake Griffin. However, I do think Texas is a bad matchup for the Sooners.

That first game is in Norman, though. It's going to be a heck of a battle. A couple of things about Texas --- they're a poorer rebounding team than they should be, and they're going to have a tough time closing out games. That could result in a couple of unexpected losses. I don't think 15-1 is a reasonable expectation. 14-2 and I would be ecstatic, and I do think 13-3 could still win the conference, even with the North being so crappy.
 
Who do you expect us to lose to SLX?

I think we will be favored going into every single conference game that we play.

We are a lot better than KU, we are a lot better than A&M, were better than baylor and have beet them like eleventy thousand times in a row and I'm convinced we are appreciably better than Oklahoma. So, 15-1 might be a stretch but if we are favored in every single game maybe it's not such a stretch, right.

And I agree that college hoops not named UNC is down this year. I'm not even all that sold on the big east this year, but UNC will get 1 number 1 seed, the big east will get 1 (maybe 2) depending upon how that all shakes out and I don't see a single other team that I want to pencil in as a 1 seed. So, Texas will be on that line if we can get to the selection show with 4 or less losses.

We've already beaten some good teams. I fully expect to lose one of our 3 remaining non-conference tests (MSU, and @ Wiscy and @Ark). But keep it to 1 more loss and 15-1 or 14-2 get us a one seed. Run that stretch and 13-3 and a the outright conference champ gets us a one. imo.

Last years team this year would have definately been a 1. There was a lot of fire power last year at the top, this year the top echelon of teams is 1 (UNC) deep imo.
 
Wulaw: IMO, probably not favored at OU or at Baylor. Possibly not at KU. Depending on how they go, possibly not at A&M or Ok State.

You asked SLX about expected losses, when he said "unexpected losses." I tend to agree with him that the inability to hit free throws and rocky half-court offense is going to be a problem in close games. (shrug)

I also agree with SLX that I've been relatively unimpressed with teams not named North Carolina. I don't think there's anyone else out there that Texas can't beat... but that doesn't mean it will.
 
I fully expect texas to lose to Wisconsin as it is on the road and it is difficult to play against a Bo Ryan system and team.

Texas State has mapped the gameplan in defending texas by playing a sagging man off of mason, balbay and ward. It will be interesting to see how Texas responds offensively.

When Texas screens, the defensive guard can go under to prevent the drive and then dare the texas guards (except Abrams) to shoot.

The Michigan State game is a fishbowl for me as Izzo will exploit Texas' weaknesses and he has the talent to do so. MSU has problems of their own, so it should be a close game.

Smothering defense by Texas combined with offensive futility and poor free throw shooting is a recipe for a lot of close games in and out of conference. Texas has also shown a tendency to be a poor rebounding team (villanova). Close games with poor free throw shooting indicates a lot of uncertain and sometimes frustrating outcomes (see Wisconsin last year).

Anything equal to or greater than 12-4 in big 12 is gold.
 
Bob- I'll set the o/u on conference games texas is favored in at 14.5. I'll take the over. Which side do you want in on?

I'm not naive enough to think that this team can't shoot poorly from the field and line and drop a game or two or three that it shouldn't. I just think the rest of the conference is lousier than we are even when we aren't playing up to standard.

I guess I'm a lot more bullish on this team then some others on this board. It might not feel like a 1 seed like TJ's team did or a couple of our elite 8 teams that were the highest 2 seeds in the tourney, but it's better than anyone else I've seen in conference and it's better than almost all of what is out there in the NCAA imo.

And I think we are losing at Wiscy. I'll be really pleasantly surprised if we win that game.
 
Wulaw, I would take the under. If you made it 13 1/2, that would make it harder. But, if things continue as they are now, I think they won't be favored at OU or at Baylor. KU is a long way out, so that is a tough call.

I'm not as concerned about Michigan State at this point -- Suton is out and Texas will play much better defense against them than it did last year.

I agree with the crowd about Wisconsin... a probable loss. However, the matchups last year were terrible. Wisconsin got every offensive rebound they needed. That won't happen this time. I'm quite interested in how that game will play out.
 
With terrible free throw shooting, occasional lapses in offensive flow due to problems at pg, and giving up way too many 2nd chance pts, I have a hard time picturing less than 3-4 conference games (probably on the road) where we falter late in the game. In any close game "hack a horn" may become standard defense in the last 5 minutes.
 
AB, when the Badgers were playing volleyball on the offensive boards, I thought Texas's three-out, two-in with three short guards, a 6-7 PF and a less-than-bulky 6-11 C was a bad matchup. YMMV. Might not have been so bad if Bo Ryan didn't coach tempo so well.

As to the youth, don't they start two juniors and two seniors? Three are returning starters and the fourth might as well be, since he got starter's minutes.

The guys behind them are inexperienced, I'll give you that.
 
Hmmm... it appears there is a chance that Suton will play. He practiced yesterday and now it's a question of how his knee responds to the practice.

Still would like the Horns there but the Spartan guards are fast...
 
both teams seem pretty inconsistent. As I type this Texas Southern is beating the horns 34-32
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Texas has struggled back to back against undermanned opponents. I think so far this year, both OU & UT has played to their competition, both good & bad.

I think both teams will get it straightened out. Just a matter of 2 young teams learning to play as a team rather than a collection of talented individuals.
 
Texas is short a shooter right now and Gary Johnson is not near as good as he thinks he is. Nice to see Connor make some shots tonight. If he can keep it going I'll feel a lot better.
 
I think it's unreasonable to expect that a team with clear weaknesses will dominate a conference like the Big XII to the tune of 15-1. I realize every team in the conference has weaknesses, but that just means that there are going to be a lot of games that are considered mild upsets because the "lesser" team had a good night or the "better" team had their weaknesses exposed. With our free-throw shooting, our lack of an elite point guard, and our problems on the boards, I just don't see us being on every night. These things are going to cause troubles against any team worthy of the Top 40 or so.

Now, if Dex is really coming on like he showed last night against Texas Southern, and Connor or Damion (or both) can get back to some semblance of their former selves, then yes, I think we can roll the Big XII. I'll believe it when I see it.

I see us losing in Madison, in Norman, possibly to MSU, and at least one more conference game as well as a game in the conference tournament. Would a 5 or 6 loss team get a #1 seed? Doubtful. Regardless, we should still be in pretty good shape for a 2 seed, and this year, that's probably plenty high to make a deep run in the NCAAs.
 
I'm starting to disagree with the notion that we don't have an elite lead guard. I think that the Mason/Ward combination is pretty damn elite. Is it DJ Augustin or Ty Lawson or TJ Ford or Collins of UCLA good? No, but it's going to be plenty good enough and better than almost anyone else we are going to line up and play.

I have to think Connor and James get it back together.

Also, this team might not be really good right now but it is going to keep getting better. All Barnes teams do. This is not a finished product.

Last year was the first year ever that I worried we weren't going to get better and I thought we regressed for a bit before the KU game. From then on though we kept playing better and better.

Nobody was beating Memphis on the day we lost to them- nobody. Both KU games last year were pretty epic imo, and probably the loss more so then the win. And I don't think Texas gets a 1 with 6 losses. They need no more than 4 going into the conference tourney and then they need to win a couple games there. Winning the tourney won't matter (as it basically never does really) with how late in the day it is.
 
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