An 'up-trending' class.

jayakris

2,500+ Posts
The ranking is somewhere in the 7 through 11 range on the 4 main recruiting services, and generally one or two spots ahead of aggy on average, on paper. But this is an even better class in my mind, than higher-ranked classes we have had in the past.

I just think this is the best class we have had in over a decade in terms of picking up players without question-marks. Not a single one of them being considered a head-scratcher, in terms of their talent/abilities and how they fit within a roster-full of holes we have. It is just the comprehensive approach to building a team with all the requisite pieces, that I find masterfully accomplished by Charlie.

No bad evals in the class, and all these guys' ratings are legit and some under-rated. In fact I see nobody (except aggy) saying that even one single player in this class is over-rated by the agencies. Actually, we were about to pick up a guy that many thought was over-rated (Soso) and interestingly, he never picked us! In fact, most recruiting analysts had said we should go for Warren who is underrated (at around national #75, if you can believe that) only because he missed most of his junior season with an injury.

There are details like that on almost every player. Like Gilbert Johnson that many think is better than Lodge that we missed on, and that he was underrated only because many big programs thought he wouldn't make the grades and didn't pursue him. Like Deshon Elliott, Charles Omenihu, Connnor Williams who have all been trending upwards in the senior year and are possibly under-ranked at 4 stars (at 3 stars for Connor). Like Wheeler who some now say may be a 5-star player (he made the biggest jump in final rankings at rivals) and even better than maybe Malik. Like Vahe, who is vastly underrated, seeing his senior year play (he may be as good as his cousin, 5-star Mea whom we lost to LSU).

Hardly a player comes to mind, whose ranking has been trending down in the senior year. You need guts to identify PLAYERS and pursue them, waiting for the rankings to take care of itself in the end. That is how Charlie went about it. One of the most pleasant things was going and getting a guy they probably evaluated poorly earlier - PJ Locke - in the end. That guy is really good and may be better than Jamile Johnson he replaced (though Jamile was also trending up this year, and Tech got a good one in him).

That is just from following the trends in recruiting gurus' opinion. Year after year, I used to be bothered hearing of our highly rated players signed up 1.5 years ahead to be trending down in the final year but being grudgingly kept at their rankings by the services because it was guys like Mack, Davis, Muschamp, and Akina picking those guys. None of it this year. Well, maybe Ryan Newsome who trended down a bit (and hello, our staff eased off on him a bit too!) because he was getting all triple-teamed in the senior year and having some trouble with his hands. But I would take him as a Kick returner anyway, so I am glad.

I am glad that the "lock them up when they are in their diapers" scheme is history. Never understood it though it got us a lot of top players (with fear of not getting an offer later). The top ones came in along with some lemons too, which was the problem. During the period when we got lucky with fewer lemons (or a perceived lemon like Colt became money), we kicked ***, but when that didn't happen, we sucked. Evaluating later in their highschool career would certainly avoid evaluation mistakes, which is just plain logic.

I never believed that Mack and his staff were poor evaluators. They were great coaches who knew how to evaluate a player. It used to bother me when half-penny recruit gurus kept saying they were poor "evaluators". Their problem was that they were evaluating with essentially half the data points and often from tape of games were those players had not become marked-men in HS. That is the problem that went away this year, and I am so glad for that. Too much risk involved in Mack's approach, really. Anyway, nobody but Mack could manage to do what mack was doing, so Charlie wasn't even going to try!

Typically a Mack class would have 15 four-star guys but about 6 of them would be trending down and not doing well in the senior year (just a feeling). So we would end up with 8 or 9 real players. This class on the other hand has about 15 four-star national top-400 players on paper, but probably about 18 guys who are of that caliber. Effectively about twice as many players of real potential as would be there in a typical top-5 or top-8 class we had for most of the last 15 years.

If he can coach them right (and all past evidence shows he can), Charlie has the players to do some damage. Maybe one more class of players are needed for NC type results, but he may have enough now to not get fired after 3 years. Good job, Charlie.
 
Jay, I'm excited about this recruiting class from top to bottom. Solid is the best way to describe it. Also thanks for the great job keeping us informed throughout the process. Anytime I clicked on Recruiting tab and saw that you have posted, it was a must read. Thanks again.
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Nice post. Never thought of it that way but makes sense. I think that Macks way was the easy way where less effort was expended in recruiting. That worked up until the last few years. Charlie and company is a workhorse and I admire his work ethic. Combine that after a good season and we should be vying for #1 classes.
 
Very good post and analysis. Coach Strong and his assistants are doing it the right way. I believe that this group will definitely turn some heads and have a good year. They are the foundation of future runs at another NC.
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Good post.

From my vantage point (with absolutely zero proof) it seemed Mack wanted players who dreamed of playing for Texas only. It was as if he wanted to have a high % of accepted offers. And he could probably find enough of those types to get them in early. It takes more effort to sell somebody on the program who isn't a Texas lover or an orangeblood if you will at heart.

But I could be wrong...
 
I think jay is on to something with the "percentage of guys who panned out" formula. Looking at the 2012 class, coming off our "redemptive" season where we won the Holiday Bowl in resounding defensive fashion but weak offense, 28 kids signed on the dotted line. Going by star ratings, only Malcom Brown (DT), Duke Thomas, Caleb Bluiett, Marcus Johnson, and Cayleb Jones (after his transfer) have lived up to or exceeded that rating.

But if you can find a kid who sort of "hangs around" his rating, even if it's poor, at least it'll chew up minutes and provide something to your team. Like finding a 4th starter for an MLB team. I think the 2015 class has a bunch of playing time in it. Obviously, the 2012 class did not come close to it, or if they are in a starring role from that group, they're underperforming.
 
Agree with everything you said jay. Nice post. I would also add that Mack took his foot off the pedal re: going for out of state players. Charlie got kids from CA., Fla., Md., and Texas.

I know Mack focused on Texas, and he did dominate Texas recruiting for years. But I do think Charlie will eventually dominate Texas while continuing to seek players from everywhere else. And I think this will bode well for the future.

Plus, there is no one who will out work Coach Strong. And there is no one who will be more honest with his players. And there is no one who will do more to have their back, and do his best to keep them in school and on the right track. And I think this bodes VERY well for the future.
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^^ Going out of state was also problematic within the Mack scheme because it again would be kids who have less chance to stick around in the senior year if they did well and others went after them hard. The scheme had better chance to work if he stayed with Texas kids. Ironic that Mack actually got fired when he finally went out of state ("Killing himself in Florida" as he said, that everybody laughs about) and got us a really good player, Andrew Beck. He got him for LB, and he seems to be a really good TE prospect. Maybe Mack himself was just beginning to change his recruiting scheme when it all got over for him!
 
Honestly, I think Mack was a victim of his own success. He essentially pioneered early recruiting. At the time very few, if any, were doing it. That said, after everyone else caught up, Texas didn't innovate or diversify their approach.
 
I think the focus gets misplaced sometimes lately in comparing Charlie Strong to Mack Brown or Kevin Sumlin. If, as this year seems to indicate, Strong can basically come even with those excellent recruiters, his other strengths in program development ought to be his advantage. In other words, if Strong was going to be a wash with Mack Brown, you would expect it to result from perhaps lesser recruiting numbers but better development and team building. If, in fact, we don't have a drop-off in talent, to me, that's a big plus.

That's especially true since Strong was not seen as a flashy, splashy hire bringing people in by a famous name--by which I mean that this recruiting class seems built on his personal connections, his personality, and of course the strengths of UT, all things that should be in place in years to come.
 
This following list gives the perfect example of what I was talking about.

Here are the 8 guys who were part of the 2015 class Mack Brown had left behind (the class being ranked #6 to #8 at that time) when Charlie got here. See where they all ended up at.

Keke Coute: Texas Tech
Jalen Campbell: Sam Houston
Johnny Shaw: LA Tech
Aaron Garza: Kansas
Bryce English: KSU
Jordan Stevenson: Navarro JUCO (after a commit to Wisconsin)
Patrick Vahe: Texas
Mea Teuhema: LSU

The first 5 were essentially let go by Charlie in various quiet ways. The top 5 really had no business being at UT. English went to UCLA and somehow they also managed to send him away (though I feel he is a better player than he gets credit for. His height hurts him). The last 3 were indeed good players that Charlie would have kept. One he lost immediately (Teuhema) and one he lost recently (Stevenson).

Had Mack stayed, I am sure Soso, and Lodge and a few others in the top-300 would have joined by 2014 junior day and we would have a class ranked top-10 with some 18 players already. We would have finished in top-15 for sure. Just like 5 of the above 8 being poor, the final class will have some 10 or 12 guys who shouldn't be at UT but would retain some of their rankings just for being committed to UT. The top-ranked few guys would give us a nice rivals ranking, and all would look good. The fact that we wasted 10 odd spots for guys who are by then below national top-600 and would not even be good enough to play backup, would go unnoticed. That was the problem. And a huge one at that.
 
Kind of along those lines, in an interview today, the ESPN recruiting guy talked about how the three-star guys that Texas picked up were all high threes, grading around 77-78. His take on that was that these were guys that potentially had really strong upside because they were all people with great tools that the scouts just didn't think were as polished or developed.

It will be interesting to see how those guys develop.
 
Was that Gerry Hamilton who said it on ESPN? He is a guy I would expect to say that, because he pays attention to such details (and that is why I actually like ESPN's rankings and maybe 247 's rankings much more than rivals'). What he said is absolutely correct. Yesterday when PJ Locke flipped, I said "three star Charlie was up to his magic again". Though it may have sounded like a joking comment, what was really in my mind was precisely this item. It was yet another 3-star who is not too low, like near the national top-1000 or anything. And he too was a guy who wasn't trending down. In fact all but a couple of our 3-star guys are in the top-500, which means they are not too far away from the top-350 or so who end up as 4-stars. Many of them are bound to be very good players. This is a just a tremendously good class, period.
 
Thank you for writing this. I was just thinking to myself how this is my favorite class in 10 years or more. Just looking over the list there is not single commit that does not fit the bill, and I am as excited about the three star players as the 4 and 5 star players. SOLID and DEEP was what I was thinking. But you said it much better. And summarizing the weaknesses of the past strategy versus Stong's, well put.
 
way too much sunshine pumping on here, while i'm very happy with the guys we got cause they wanted to be here, I'm also reserved after some highly rated classes we've had before that just didn't live up to expectations, so how about we hold off anointing them anything until they earn it and based off what i've read about these guys they wouldn't have it any other way.

talk is cheap and easy, championships are not and the classes that they will eventually being going up against aren't going to be cake walks at all.
 
^^^ I was anointing the class as good because it is quite clearly NOT like those highly ranked earlier classes. The thread itself is about why it is different. Yeah, a bit of sunshine pumping here, but that's only because I see nothing to temper the enthusiasm. Rarely felt that about those earlier classes you mention.

Since you bring it up, let us do some downer-talk. I would have liked one more DT and a top-100 QB. Otherwise, it is every bit worthy of some sunshine-pumping.
 
Rivals crowned us as the disappointed team. The reason is that we missed on Soso and Mack.

Guess that's why they dropped us to no. 12

Could not believe that when Florida came in at # 23.
 
The Horn whomever said it made a good point. The majority of the recruits could be considered "athletes" beyond their position labels.

"Athletes" are generally able to flex into different positions (except for linemen, of course). Therefore having a crapload of "athletes" in this class, we have a bunch of kids that can transition to other positions and possibly make our class better in the long run if one considers static positional recruiting rankings.
 
Losing out on Gentry and Mack are my only two downers. Those two would've made me ecstatic about this class. While the haul is already impressive, I also believe many will exceed their ratings for reasons mentioned by others. I really think Gentry will be a hell of a team leader and solid passer. And Mack, well Mack is a disruptive beast. Outside of those two, I'm good to go everywhere else and more than satisfied. Basically, QB and DT could've used more (immediate playing potential) pop. The rest is gravy. All things considered, very happy on my end.
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The big hole in this class in QB, the most important position on a football team, and the one that Texas had the most need at.

The current QB is possibly the worst starting QB in all of D1 football. Seems like a great guy and a hard worker - so would about 50% of the UT students. But he's not a college quality QB. If he starts, nay, plays a down next year, that means either the other QB's on the roster are worse, or the coaching staff has some major evaluation problems.

So, it's all going to be on Heard next near - a redshirt freshmen who's not taken a snap at college level.

Maybe it works out - Applewhite, Colt, were both RS freshmen. But it's a bad position to be in. If Heard doesn't perform, then what? Another stumble bum season of putrid offensive performances, like this year? 50 yards in a bowl game?

QB should have been the #1 priorty this year - maybe it was, and the staff thought the guy from NM was a fit - but as others have said - out of state players are not the lock that in staters are, who may have dreamed of playing for a certain team all their playing days.

So, if Heard doesn't perform, then it's a true freshman, 3 star, non-top 100 QB to run the show. Yikes.

Or more likely, Heard will be the QB all next year, baring injury, no matter how badly he plays, just like this year. But then in 2016, it's the same situation as now - relying on a RS freshman to come in and play. Bad situation to be in.
 
And TS is the perfect example of a down-trending player and the weakness of early offers. IRIC he was offered as a junior, having peaked early, and having a good year albeit against 2A competition, and then had a dismal senior year against the same 2A competition after they drew a bead on him.
But the offer was there and its poor form to pull an offer, so...

Locksley and Merrick OTOH might be projects, but they have not hit their ceilings by any stretch of the imagination.

Would have been great to get Gentry too, but we shall see. Hopefully we get a transfer?
 
IMO Locksley is a better QB prospect for UT"s offense than Gentry. Also Texas was never in the running for Mack. And Newsome [great kick and punt returner] makes for loss of Soso.
A great class that filled a lot if not all the needs.
 

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