Aggy hypothetical wagering

[smwhorn]

From Texags. Bet=$10K. If Aggy does NOT win a National Championship in football in the next 20 years, you don't get your $10K back. If Aggy DOES win National Championship in the next 20 years, you get $1M. Do you make the bet?

SMWhorn does NOT make the investment. You?

 

[Lincoln]

That would mean you'd have to be a closet aggy fan for 20 years.

 

[texascoder]

You make the bet only if you want to lose 10 large.

 

[BigWill]

no effin way aggy goes downtown in the next 20.

no way.

they've one exactly one championship, about 80 years ago.

I would be willing to bet that each of the following will win another one before aggy:

USC
Texas
Florida
Miami
FSU
Alabama
Domer
Blow U

 

[theredbarron]

100 to 1 odds of Aggy winning 1 MNC in the next 20 years? Sorry to break up the fun here, but I'd take those odds in a heartbeat if I had $10k to play with.

 

[TexasGolf]

TCU, Boise St., even Rutgers have a better chance than aggy

 

[smwhorn]

redbarron-- there's a lot of things you can bet on with 100-1 odds. that's not one i'd be willing to lay $10K on.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

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[theredbarron]

Do I think Aggy will win in the next 20 years? No. But that's not the question. It is unlikely, but absolutely possible, for things to line up just right for one year in the next 20 for Aggy. Not 1-to-1 possible, probably not 5-to-1 possible, but 100-to-1 would have a huge positive expected value for an unbiased gambler. Hell, even if you think that Aggy is just a 1000-to-1 shot each season for the next 20, then your expected value on the bet is to double your money.

It doesn't even take that great of a season to win - see LSU 2 years ago. One good hire with one lucky year (before leaving for a better job, of course) could do it. Hell, I would even take Baylor or SMU or Houston for those odds.

My deepest apologies for nerding up this thread with probability and statistics and "expected value", that's what engineers are for.

 

[theredbarron]

And what the hell are we doing on the Texags board anyway? They're the ones that are supposed to obsess on us.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

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[LonghornCatholic]

They might, might, win a conference championship in 20 years.
MNC - no way.

 

[smwhorn]

redbarron, you are right but sometimes i just cant drag myself away from watching the trainwreck.

 

[YoLaDu]

I wouldn't make that bet with even the Longhorns right now. (well, obviously, after Jan 7th.)

It's incredibly hard to win the National Championship.

If you had been taken that bet in 1971 with the Longhorns you would have lost. But at the time of the bet, i bet you would have felt pretty confident they would win again in 20 years; Texas coming off two straight National Championships.

1963, 1969, 1970, 2005