7 pt Home Underdog??

[LHABSOB]

Thank God I gave up gambling 13 years ago. That being said I don't understand the pt spread on this game. I have always heard that home field is worth 3 pts so that means Vegas thinks LSU is 10pts better than us??

 

[SabreHorn]

Opened at LSU - 4.5 and has been bet up to -6.5

If you think we will win, the money line is +211

 

[theiioftx]

I do not get the overconfidence of LSU or especially the rest of the pundits claiming a blowout is coming. Barring injury to Sam or Keontay, I see this pretty much even especially in Austin. I will not be surprised at the score regardless. I think these are two outstanding teams on the verge of being special.

 

[Detective Shilala]

I think its the new offense LSU has "installed"

Reasoning goes like this: "LSU has been very good for a long time and has great players but a bad system for offense.
So new OC and a new offense must mean instant success."

If that sounds like folly, its because we have been there done that.

Like when Mack decided to go for power play action, or when Harsin took over for GD, or when the Sterling guy took over for the Watson guy, (I have tried to forget their names)

 

[Galvestonhorn]

Some sharps hit LSU early at 4.5 and a bunch of steam chasers followed (bettors that hover around a book and bet what a few respected bettors play).

 

[mb227]

Opened at LSU - 4.5 and has been bet up to -6.5

If you think we will win, the money line is +211

Making it even stranger is that this game WAS a pick'em for a period of time in the not to distant past...what we are seeing is a LOT of over-reaction to the fact that LSU came out passing with success against Directional Georgia Junior High or whoever it was (one of those teams that even the hated w-sips would look down upon). Remember also that you have some new sportsbooks opened in SEC-SEC-SEC country and that is likely impacting the movement. While the east coast and the Mississippi books won't march lockstep with Vegas, they often won't be that far apart because none of them want people playing one part of the country against the other to middle the bets...

I think you will see some buy down in the next 12 hours. But it won't come down much unless a WHOLE lot of money shows for Texas. In the meantime, my plan is to take the points and profit...just like last night when I didn't even need the three points with Green Bay.