3/16 Bracketology

and my school, UTA, is slotted to play Kansas as the 16 seed...lol...that would be UTA's first ever appearance in the NCAA tournament. But first they have to win today against Northwestern State.
 
This guy is assuming that Kansas is going to beat the Horns today. Horns should get the top seed if they take out the Jayhawks today. That will really screw up his bracket then won't it?
 
If I'm the committee, I've got two slots reserved in the bracket -- one #1 and one #2 -- and I'll let today's Big XII Championship Game decide which team occupies which.
 
Seems as if we are in an incredibly weird situation. The only thing I can think of that relates to it is soccer.

Sometimes, you want to lose your group to avoid a next-round matchup with a really good team - like Italy, Brazil, etc... However, I'm not a big proponent of throwing a game. Rick Barnes probably knows more about the situation than any of us. And, even if losing is the "right" thing to do (to get us a 2 in Houston) I have a really hard time seeing Barnes cakewalk a game.
 
I don't see Texas getting rewarded for losing by getting to play their regional finals in Houston. Its not impossible but it wouldn't be fair for Memphis to get the #1 seed in the South but allow the #2 team to have a huge home court advantage like that.
 
I think we can still get a #1 in the south (memphis to detroit,) and even if we lose we could just get a #2 in a different region.

Not to mention Kansas fans care so damn much about this meaningless tournament, so we might as well win it so they will shut up about it.
 
To us it makes sense that we if we win, #1 in south, memphis to detroit and if we lose #2 in houston.
sadly i dont think they will put that much time to just put Texas where they deserve to go. I dont know how many different versions/scenarios they plan for but a good thing is that high ranked teams(potential #1s and #2s) have already played. Only one other than UT/Ku is UNC which has locked up a #1 anyway. Wisconsin being the ony other team. This is a very good thing for us, imo, so they can already slot most other teams. Duke, Ucla, Gtwon, Memphis, Tenn....they already know their final results so their is no guessing game with them, if they win/lose of where to move them.
 
I dont know which is better for us. Its hard to say. I do like the idea of wining the Tourney and going in as a 1 seed. Helps the overall image of the team somewhat, and possibly recruiting and even future seedings. Plus, the potential 4s look like a step down from the potential 3s. So I lean that way. OTOH, playing in Houston would be great since I already have ($185) tickets. So its good either way.

What I do know is Calipari will ***** and whine if we end of in Houston as the #2. He felt like he got screwed on this type of deal last year.
 
I think playing close to home is being given way too much emphasis by a lot of you. The NCAA tournament is more about who is hot than who plays at home.

Last 5 finals--

Florida (#1 St. Louis) vs. Ohio State (#1 San Antonio)

Florida (#3 Minneapolis) vs. UCLA (#2 Oakland)

UNC (#1 Syracuse) vs. Illinois (#1 Chicago)

UConn (#2 Phoenix) vs. Ga. Tech (#3 St. Louis)

Syracuse (#3 Albany) vs. Kansas (#2 Anaheim)

From those finals' match-ups, I only see two instances in which a lower seeded team advanced to the final four and had the benefit of playing near home--Syracuse in 2003 and UCLA in 2006.

And the other final four teams in those years?

2003 Texas (#1 San Antonio), Marquette (#3 Minneapolis)
2004 Duke (#1 Austin), Okie State (#2 East Rutherford)
2005 Michigan State (#5 Austin), Louisville (#4 Albuquerque)
2006 LSU (#4 Atlanta), George Mason (#11 D.C.)
2007 Georgetown (#2 East Rutherford), UCLA (#2 San Jose)


5 years and only 6 instances of a lower seeded team with a significant geographical advantage beating a higher seeded team in regional finals:

2007 UCLA over Kansas (2 over 1)
2007 Georgetown over UNC (2 over 1)
2006 UCLA over Memphis (same)
2006 George Mason over UConn (11 over 1)
2003 Syracuse over Oklahoma (3 over 1)
2003 Marquette over Kentucky (3 over 1)

I don't see LSU as having that significant an advantage over Texas playing in Atlanta, but include that if you must. Question--is that number of victories by lesser teams to be considered outside the range to be expected on neutral courts? I don't think so. There was only one really big upset and two 2 over 1 and two 3 over 1 games.

I find 6 regional finals over the last 5 years in which #1 played #2. The two UCLA games above, in which UCLA had geographic advantage and won as the 2 seed. Georgetown-UNC. Georgetown with advantage and wins as the two seed. Okie STate beating ST. Joseph's as the two seed and disadvantage, Ohio State beating Memphis in Austin(1 over 2), and Kansas beating Arizona out West (2 over 1).

Huh. Go figure. Five 2 seeds beat the 1 seeds. 3 were closer to home. 2 weren't. One 1 seed beat a 2 seed. The one was farther away.

Just play basketball and win.

Edit: Added Georgetown over UNC as a significant geographical advantage to a 2 seed. Game was played in Jersey.
 
Even though Tennessee lost yesterday, it still would not surprise me to see the committee arbitrarily decide (as Lunardi has) that Kansas will win today and just go ahead and give them the #1. If that's the case, then it doesn't matter at all who wins or loses or by how much.

But, assuming they decide to be fair about it, Texas needs to win this game today. Like others have said, losing does not guarantee anything but a #2 seed. We don't know where. Winning guarantees a lot. It guarantees an undisputed, unshared conference title. It guarantees that Kansas fans will have to shut up for a while. It guarantees no more talk about Texas not being able to win the conference tournament. And, more important for the short term, it guarantees either a #1 seed, which is huge for visibility, or, at worst, a #2 seed close to home. I prefer the benefits of winning this game.
 
I would add that Texas has played well in big games on the road this year, for the most part. I would not be worried about the Horns getting a one seed in any of the regions. I think they've been more road-tested than probably any team they will play in the tournament.
 
bierce, great post as usual.

We will know once and for all today whether the Big XII Title game played on Sunday at 2 PM, three hours before the brackets are announced, can actually mean something. If the committee still gives Tennessee a 1 seed (which is possible), then it can be assumed they couldn't wait for the winner of the game today. More reason why it's great the Big XII Tourney is Wednesday-Saturday starting next year - the championship game can always matter that way. But I don't see how one can look at the actual schedules and results for both UT and Tennessee and, if Texas wins today, say that the Vols still has a better profile and/or is a better team than the Horns.

Winner today gets the 1 seed in Detroit. Loser gets the 2 in Phoenix. If the loser actually gets the 2 in Houston, there is something wrong with that type of reward for losing today.
 
I don't care what we do today as long as we get thrown into the South. And not because I don't think we can win in Detroit or Phoenix, but because I'm sitting on a pair of club level tickets to the South Regional.
 
I just don't see how the committee could have already decided that Kansas is a #1 and Texas a #2 regardless of the outcome of today's game. If we win, then we'll be regular season co-champs, conference tournament champs, and own a 2-0 head-to-head record against a team with virtually the same RPI.
 
I don't get why Kansas is supposedly ranked ahead of us at this moment. We have them beat on RPI, Head-to-Head, SOS (by a bunch), and quality wins (by a bunch). The ONLY stat I see them having us beat is bad losses.

It's a bit of a bad setup for us, in that we're sitting at #5 RPI, probably with no chance of improving even with a win (assuming UNC takes care of business today). 3 of the 4 teams ahead of us also would have won their conference tournaments, and the one that didn't happens to be #1 in RPI/SOS. We also have those bad losses hanging over us. I think it's got to be a very close call between the UTs if we win today. I guess we'd both end up in the Midwest and a chance to fight it out in the Elite Eight.
 
I could not care less what I seed ends up being. I want to see us win the Big 12 Tourny for the first time. This is our best opportunity IMHO.
 
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