2024 Weekly Prediction Contest Overall Results

militaryhorn

militaryhorn

Prediction Contest Manager
Here are the overall season results for the weekly score prediction contest.

Overall Score.jpg
 
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If given a letter grade, I'd be at about a B-. Exactly where I fell in K-12, and where my final GPA landed. If nothing else, I am consistent.
 
I seem to have to ask every year, but I need a reminder on the scoring rules. First, at the top of the results chart, it shows Colo. St. with 1 point and Texas with 53 and a total points of 54. The final score was 52-0, so I am confused by the top line. I understand the "Points Diff" column as totaling the combined spread between actual scores of the opponent and Texas and what we predicted each school would have. I also understand "Total Points" and "MOV" as being our projections of each, but I don't understand fully the "Total Points" column. I understand we get 1 point in "Weekly Pt. Total" column for a correct prediction of the winner.

I think the formula for "Total Points" is:

1. "Points Diff" column +
2. the difference between projected total score and actual total score +
3. the difference between projected MOV and actual MOV.

If that is the formula, then I should have had 31 + 3 + 31 = 65, not 63. I realize 65 is worse than 63 and I still only earned 1 point (for predicting the correct winner), but just trying to understand.
 
el arroyo said:
I seem to have to ask every year, but I need a reminder on the scoring rules. First, at the top of the results chart, it shows Colo. St. with 1 point and Texas with 53 and a total points of 54. The final score was 52-0, so I am confused by the top line. I understand the "Points Diff" column as totaling the combined spread between actual scores of the opponent and Texas and what we predicted each school would have. I also understand "Total Points" and "MOV" as being our projections of each, but I don't understand fully the "Total Points" column. I understand we get 1 point in "Weekly Pt. Total" column for a correct prediction of the winner.

I think the formula for "Total Points" is:

1. "Points Diff" column +
2. the difference between projected total score and actual total score +
3. the difference between projected MOV and actual MOV.

If that is the formula, then I should have had 31 + 3 + 31 = 65, not 63. I realize 65 is worse than 63 and I still only earned 1 point (for predicting the correct winner), but just trying to understand.
Click to expand...
To answer the first part, my excel spreadsheet doesn't like any team to get 0 as it's score. My formula doesn't know how to handle a 0, so I added 1 to each persons score and to the final score for each team. The math still works out the same as if the score was 0 for Colo St and 52 for Texas.

Total Points is simply the points difference + (Predicted Total Score - Actual Total Score) + (Predicted MOV - Actual MOV). The last two are ABSOLUTE VALUES. So, if you take the leader of this week you get this:

3 (Point Diff) + (|57-54|) + (|49-52|) = 9

Weekly Point Total is calculated as follows:

Weekly Rank + Correct Pick (1 pt)

Weekly Rank is if you are #1 you get 10 points, #2, 9 points, etc. down to #10

The leader this week would be calculated like this:

10 + 1 = 11

I hope this helps anyone who was wondering and if you need any other explanations, I am here all season.
 
Thank you for your response and for organizing the entire post. It is fun (even though I am not very good at it). I hope to have a score closer that of SabreHorn and LonghornCatholic....
 
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