2023 Position Projections

[aUTfan]

I wanted to start a thread to pass the time until football season gets here. We are in the deadest period of dead periods right now with only MLB going on and I'm already kind of anxious to see how it looks. Obviously there is still some fluidity. Tanner Witt, is a die hard longhorn, if he can come back and help he will, it might not be till the middle of the season but I see him getting some work, to what level is anyone's guess but for now i'm going to count him out as a starter and if he helps out then its just icing on the proverbial cake. Please feel free to inject your knowledge on these guys, I don't know them all.

Starting Pitchers
Lucas Gordon, 3.05/85.2 innings
Charlie Hurley, 4.19/73 innings
Chris Stuart, 3.1 ERA/78 innings

Not sure who the starters will be, these are the known quantities and this is what i'm going with for now until I find out otherwise or someone can make a good argument. We're thin here, can't imagine how thin we would be if we didn't pick up the transfers. There is no one on our staff that holds our confidence as a starter outside Gordon and he was shaky at the end.

Midweek starters- I think in the beginning of the season this will be fluid to see who can develop into a solid long reliever or potentially a back up or take a full time starting position, key here is developing depth.

Ace Whitehead
Jared Thomas or Max Grubbs
Duplantier
Mathew Porchas

Relievers
Heston Tole, 3.77/14.1 innings - he gave up 4 doubles and 2 hr's in those 14 innings (listed his name only because hes a newcomer and I don't think he got enough innings to prove much/won't last as a starter without more work)

Cody Howard (Baylor)

David Shaw (from Rice)

Rest of the pitching staff

Closer
???

Positions
(In no particular order)[We seem a little full on infielders next season, someone is going to get left out]
C - Galvan/Guillemette/Constatine
1B - Jared Thomas/Peyton Powell
2B - Daly
SS - O’Dowd
3B - Tanner Carlson
RF - Dylan Campbell
CF - Eric Kennedy
LF - Austin Todd

DH - Schuessler/Fields

 

[aUTfan]

I'm counting on a lot of freshman to step up next year in this projection. Now that I think about it, probably not a good projection but I don't see any way around it right now until some upper classman steps up to take a spot.

 

[Chop]

We really needed those new transfer pitchers. Hopefully both of your listed new starters will pan out so it’s not just Gordon + pick a name out of the hat for our starters. I wouldn’t be surprised if DuPlantier becomes a weekend starter. I think Porchas and Grubbs will both play a lot next year—either as relievers or maybe even as a starter in Porchas’ case.

While we won’t match last season’s Homerun numbers, this lineup actually looks pretty good. The catcher has to bring a decent enough bat to the plate. Aside from that, Daly would be our weakest bat if he bats like he did last season. But remember, Daly batted North of 0.300 the year before, so he can bring it. Campbell might be an infielder again, instead of an outfielder? If he does, then our batting lineup will be even better. We could have a team batting avg of 0.300 + again, but a lower team slugging %, no doubt…

All in all, it looks pretty good for a rebuilding year (that is, if these new transfer pitchers don’t suck)

 

[Chop]

Returning Pitchers who likely will “step up”:

DuPlantier — possible weekday or even weekend starter

Cobb — could be a weekday starter. Weekend starter in a pinch. His numbers were actually pretty good last year. The stats book says he’s a good pitcher. I’m onboard.

Sthele — good to very good for an inning or two. Yank him after that though.

Harrison — already good. He’ll get even better.

O’Banan — promising redshirt. We’ll get to see him pitch at the Disch this next year.

 

[FWHORN]

I want to see fall ball but it would not shock me to see DuPlantier as a weekend starter if he can find control. He has the stuff to be a weekend starter, just needs to find that mindset and not be a grand slam waiting to happen.

 

[aUTfan]

Chop- You’re right about all of it, so many question marks.

FWHorn- you should post that article over here that you posted in draft tracker. Definitely applicable to this thread. Kind of what I’m looking for is trying to figure out loosely of course what next years team looks like. The article pointed out Kennedy in CF, I should have listed him there. I’ll change the original listing to reflect updated changes to new information so we can see it easily. Duplantier is such an enigma right now, everyone is pulling for him. I’m a little gun shy right now for anyone on our staff, I sure hope Woody is able to stabilize it. And I think he will.

 

[aUTfan]

I adjusted the projection to reflect the article from Wescott Eberts. I placed Schuessler at DH cause I don’t know that he will beat out Guillemette/Galvan/Constantine but I do know he has a good bat. I mentioned earlier that we seem to have too many infielders. That’s kind of where the bottle neck is, we won’t know who is going to start there till coaches see them practice/play fall ball. We have a lot of quality infielders, good problem to have, if we could trade for starting pitching, I would do that

 

[FWHORN]

As requested:

Analyzing the Texas players, signees selected in the 2022 MLB Draft - Burnt Orange Nation

 

[Chop]

I placed Schuessler at DH cause I don’t know that he will beat out Guillemette/Galvan/Constantine but I do know he has a good bat.

Yep.

Schusler's a decent enough catcher, but a rather good batter (0.300+ and some power). If the top catcher has at least a decent bat (0.250+ and fair power, or better), then that would work, and Schussler can be the DH. We've been spoiled with Silas Ardoin behind the plate the last few years.

 

[Chop]

we seem to have too many infielders

Yeah, seems like it.

We've got to see who can bat. Our new shortstop--maybe, or maybe not??? College shortstops like Faltine that hit 15 or so homeruns in a year, and bat in the high 200s/low 300s, are not the norm. Young DuPlantier comes from a good baseball family, maybe he's got a good bat? If none of our shortstops can bat worth a flip, then Campbell can come back to the infield, and the double-play combo would be Daly/Campbell--either one at either position, probably Daly at SS.

I think the new two-years-of-eligibility-transfer 3rd baseman brings a really good bat for avg and OB%. Whitehead is my projected 3rd batter or cleanup hitter. Campbell might be either 3rd or clean-up hitter as well, unless Coach wants to stagger the power throughout the lineup.

 

[Chop]

Whitehead is my projected 3rd batter or cleanup hitter. Campbell might be either 3rd or clean-up hitter as well, unless Coach wants to stagger the power throughout the lineup.

Thinking on this some more...

How about this for the top of the lineup 1 through 5:

Daly
Kennedy
Campbell
Whitehead
Carlson

Speed
Speed + bat. avg. + power
Speed + power
Bat. avg + power
Bat avg.

 

[Chop]

For any of y'all out there with a sophisticated eye for swing mechanics, etc., here's our new 3rd baseman: Tanner Carlson--Long Beach State. Last year he batted in the mid 300s!!! The batting starts at 0:28. Clearly, Sabre chose the background tune...

 

[Chop]

Charlie Hurley
Transfer from USC
6'8"
218 lbs
6-2
4.19 ERA
1.37 WHIP
45 Strikeouts
32 Walks - gotta work on that part
obscure stat: % of pitches that he gives up a triple: 0.093%

I'm warming up to this pitcher more after a tad of research. He had a couple of lousy games (including vs. Stanford) that wrecked his ERA up to 4.19--which otherwise would have been in the low 3s. He also throws a wild pitch or a bean ball more than I would like to see. He's got good stuff though and throws for lots of innings.

Mid 90s fastball. Also throws a changeup (with good movement) and a curve. I haven't read any scout commentary on his slider.

A California Catholic High School product (like Lucas Gordon). It seems that the big Catholic high schools out there recruit a lot of the best baseball players.

He's a big, long-armed, 6'8" guy on the mound. who has some of that natural drop, even on the fastball.

Mechanics gurus: there's a slo-mo of his pitching form in the video below starting at 3:23.



He also played for the Healdsburg Prune Packers. No, seriously, he did...
(never a need for any Ex-Lax, Metamucil, or Tijuana city water on that team...)

Charlie Hurley - California Collegiate League - player

 

[SabreHorn]

Clearly, Sabre chose the background tune...

Sounds kinda like Toby Keith & Barry jammim of Switzer's patio, maybe with a little backup from Snuffy Smith.

 

[aUTfan]

Thinking on this some more...

How about this for the top of the lineup 1 through 5:

Daly
Kennedy
Campbell
Whitehead
Carlson

Speed
Speed + bat. avg. + power
Speed + power
Bat. avg + power
Bat avg.

I had a little thought about that middle infield. I imagine there may not be a discernible difference in defensive statistics one from the other, it may come down to offensive stats between those guys.

 

[aUTfan]

Charlie Hurley
Transfer from USC
6'8"
218 lbs
6-2
4.19 ERA
1.37 WHIP
45 Strikeouts
32 Walks - gotta work on that part
obscure stat: % of pitches that he gives up a triple: 0.093%

I'm warming up to this pitcher more after a tad of research. He had a couple of lousy games (including vs. Stanford) that wrecked his ERA up to 4.19--which otherwise would have been in the low 3s. He also throws a wild pitch or a bean ball more than I would like to see. He's got good stuff though and throws for lots of innings

I read somewhere that they put too many innings on him toward the end and he wore down and his stats inflated as a result of tiring.

 

[Chop]

I read somewhere that they put too many innings on him toward the end and he wore down and his stats inflated as a result of tiring.

Fortunately we’ve never seen anything like that before. Ever in our history.

 

[aUTfan]

Thinking on this some more...

How about this for the top of the lineup 1 through 5:

Daly
Kennedy
Campbell
Whitehead
Carlson
.

Try my hand at this:

1. Kennedy
2. Austin Todd
3. Tanner Carlson
4. Garrett Guillemtte
5. Dylan Campbell
6. Ace Whitehead
7. Schuessler
8. Galvan/Constantine
9. O’Dowd

All the new guys are unknown commodities so I’m having to throw darts. My thinking is, I know jaydin and Flores have speed and I know thomas is a contact hitter with few strike outs. knowing these things, I put them in the 2 hole, they can move Kennedy into scoring position and between Tanner, campbell and Schuessler we get at least one run in and a lot more if they all hit on a +.300 avg. and it cycles every 3-4 times that they all hit together successfully.

we lost a lot of power, it looks to me like they can put a lineup together to manufacture some runs, so it comes down to great pitching next year and defense with a lineup that can consistently put at least 4 runs on the board.

one glaring thing missing, if Daly doesn’t get his stroke back, he could be odd man out.

 

[Chop]

O’Dowd will have to step it up A LOT if he’s going to be in our starting lineup.

If Ace Whitehead can bat as a starter the way he did as a substitute, he’ll be the best batter on the team.

I figure you can subtract about 0.10-0.20 from Carlson’s batting avg due to the better competition he’ll be facing. Still that means he’ll probably be batting North of 0.325-0.330.

On paper, this lineup looks like it will put a lot of men on base frequently. The power looks pretty average (could be much better if the newcomers pan out). Still with a bunch of base runners on board through the game, we still could be looking at one of the best offenses in the conference.

We may never see power like last year again, so it’s back to normal.

 

[aUTfan]

O’Dowd will have to step it up A LOT if he’s going to be in our starting lineup.

If Ace Whitehead can bat as a starter the way he did as a substitute, he’ll be the best batter on the team.

I figure you can subtract about 0.10-0.20 from Carlson’s batting avg due to the better competition he’ll be facing. Still that means he’ll probably be batting North of 0.325-0.330.

On paper, this lineup looks like it will put a lot of men on base frequently. The power looks pretty average (could be much better if the newcomers pan out). Still with a bunch of base runners on board through the game, we still could be looking at one of the best offenses in the conference.

We may never see power like last year again, so it’s back to normal.

I know little about O’Dowd. Between him and Daly, one or both could be outside looking in if their offense doesn’t improve.

i think the line up 3 thru 6 could be interchangeable. I don’t know anything about the 8 and 9 spot to say so I just stuck them there.

 

[Chop]

I know little about O’Dowd. Between him and Daly, one or both could be outside looking in if their offense doesn’t improve.

i think the line up 3 thru 6 could be interchangeable. I don’t know anything about the 8 and 9 spot to say so I just stuck them there.

O’Dowd batted around 0.230 last year, and a lot of his at bats were against the weaker opponents in mid week games. In his defense, it was a fairly small sample size. He transferred here from Vandy, so at some point their scouts thought he was good.

 

[aUTfan]

O’Dowd batted around 0.230 last year, and a lot of his at bats were against the weaker opponents in mid week games. In his defense, it was a fairly small sample size. He transferred here from Vandy, so at some point their scouts thought he was good.

Him and Daly could be odd men out then if they don't find their swing. We have to have at least two guys with minimum very high .200 or low .300 batting average to add to the lineup to create enough consistent run support for the pitching and defense. (Thats on top of Campbell, Schuessler and Kennedy doing their respective jobs at the plate).

Seems like a lot to ask 3-4 freshman to do and not likely so hopefully one of them if not both Daly and O'Dowd bring their "A" game offensively next year.

 

[aUTfan]

Another good read and one pitching addition I forgot about from Rice. I’ll add him to the original post plus he has some great arguments for the catcher transfers(USC) bat so I think I’ll adjust the line up to reflect that.article also mentions that Austin Todd may come back! I thought he was out of eligibility.
2022 Texas baseball season in review - Burnt Orange Nation

 

[Chop]

Another good read and one pitching addition I forgot about from Rice. I’ll add him to the original post plus he has some great arguments for the catcher transfers(USC) bat so I think I’ll adjust the line up to reflect that.article also mentions that Austin Todd may come back! I thought he was out of eligibility.
2022 Texas baseball season in review - Burnt Orange Nation

The Austin Todd coming back for a seventh or eighth season is just a joke, right?

He’s got a good bat if it’s somehow true. Dude should be about through with his PhD by now…

 

[aUTfan]

The Austin Todd coming back for a seventh or eighth season is just a joke, right?

He’s got a good bat if it’s somehow true. Dude should be about through with his PhD by now…

Could be but heck I can’t keep up with the extra year of eligibility due to Covid

 

[aUTfan]

This guy writes as if Morehouse and Olivarez will be back. Morehouse was drafted reasonably high (he throws in the mid 90s), and I thought Olivarez’s eligibility was done…?

Yeah, that crossed my mind too. Good points chop.

 

[aUTfan]

This guy writes as if Morehouse and Olivarez will be back. Morehouse was drafted reasonably high (he throws in the mid 90s), and I thought Olivarez’s eligibility was done…?

I didn’t think Moorehouse got drafted? But Olivarez might have been or is out of eligibility?

 

[Chop]

So is Ace Whitehead as good as I think he is?

In 18 at bats, he batted well over 0.500 and had an OPS well over 1.200, and an OB % over 0.600.

 

[Chop]

I didn’t think Moorehouse got drafted? But Olivarez might have been or is out of eligibility?

Looks like you’re right and I was wrong. I think I had a draft projection in my head or something. Thx.

 

[aUTfan]

So is Ace Whitehead as good as I think he is?

In 18 at bats, he batted well over 0.500 and had an OPS well over 1.200, and an OB % over 0.600.

why didn’t he get more at bats?? Idk but will be interesting to see how they play in the fall and who plays where, maybe it will be an indication for spring.