2/29 Bracketology

FWIW, Lunardi's little blurb on Texas does say this...

TEXAS
Only Texas owns victories over three potential No. 1 seeds. The Longhorns most recently added an impressive win at Kansas State.

Why seeded here?
The Longhorns have won 11 of 12 to lead the Big 12.

May change because:
Texas can start thinking about playing in the South Regional in Houston.
 
Cougar High and Virginia Tech get bids? Both have RPIs in the 60's and are 0-5 vs. top 50. Potential at-large teams like that will have me rooting for huge upset in the conference tournaments.
 
Actually, it's Lunardi guessing what the he expects the NCAA tournament selection committee will do, but your point is taken.
 
Dont like that bracket - Phoenix is basically Eastern Cali. Scottsdale is so LA its not even funny. Would almost be a home game for UCLA if we were to meet in the West finals. A possible 2nd round game with UA would definately be a home game for the wildcats being that Tuscon is just down the road.
 
No offense to Penders, but if they put UH in they ought to put Nebraska in as well.

Agree, they have a higher RPI than we do. But we have a higher SOS, and UH is winless vs. the RPI top 50. Nebraska has three wins against top 50 RPI teams IN ITS LAST THREE GAMES.

And by the way, we play in a better conference.

If they put UH in as an at large and leave NU out, I'll lose much of my selection committee understanding.
 
bierce hit it on the head. In Lunardi's "Nitty Gritty", he has the one seeds as Tennessee, Memphis, UNC and Texas, in that order, and the two seeds as UCLA, Duke, Kansas and Xavier. If the bracketing follows the S-curve, UCLA would in fact be the two seed in the west with UT the 1 seed in the west, since as the lowest 1 seed the Horns get the most unfavorable geographic spot, and the best 2 seed is placed below the lowest 1 seed. However, with Duke the 2nd-best 2 seed, their natural place would be under the 3rd-best 1 seed. With the 3rd-best 1 seed being UNC, Duke couldn't be put there under the Tar Heelsbecause the top three teams selected from each conference must be in different regions. Therefore, Duke should be placed with the 2nd-best 1seed, which is MEMPHIS. However, Lunardi places Duke in Charlotte under Tennessee to give Duke a geographical edge, and said in his chat today that he feels the committee would do the same.

If that is the case, this entire process of placing 2 seeds in regions that end up screwing with the 1 seeds must be changed. Saying the committee doesn't look at possible regional matchups isn't a good enough reason to screw with, of all teams, the overall 1 seed in Tennessee in this scenario. It's just stupid, stupid, stupid and blatantly unfair.

I love the mid majors, but I still can't believe Lunardi's last teams in. Once again he falls prey to reacting too harshly to recent events. Having Ohio State out of the tourney all together is ridiculous. Sure, they haven't been impressive, but don't tell me UAB or Houston has a better profile. The Buckeyes have better wins, a better RPI, better SOS, and even a better non-conf SOS, so CUSA can't be blamed for UAB's and Houston's low numbers. Syracuse is the same as Ohio State in this case, too. Taking out St. Joseph's is one thing since they haven't beaten anyone and they've lost some awful games recently, but Syracuse and OSU should be in.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but CBS Sportsline actually makes more sense, and I've never liked their college hoops coverage: The Link
 
So the committee's position is it's more advantageous to be the fifth best seed in the tournament than the fourth? If UCLA gets the fourth #1 where do they end up? I think everyone is guessing at this point, and Texas has a 50/50 shot to be the #1 in Houston if they win out. A Tennessee loss tomorrow would definitely help our cause.
 
I like our half of that bracket. Granted it has UCLA and Wisc. as the 2 and3, but BYU is a bracket buster in that 6 slot.
 
Still a lot of games left to be played. Either UNC or Duke has the possibility of losing twice more, and if not, both will lose at least once.

KH makes a good point... not only must Texas keep winning, but it should help UT if UCLA keeps winning. UCLA as a No. 1 is going no place but Phoenix. For Texas to get Houston, it should (emphasize, should) only be necessary for Texas to be seeded ahead of the top ACC candidate.
 
This Duke business is very predictable. Remember, either last week or the week before when Duke lost 2 games in a row, and they're still in consideration for a #1 seed, or a #2 in their home state? Wow! It doesn't seem to matter what Duke does, they are going to get the favorable treatment.

And, if Duke is going to get such treatment, shouldn't UCLA get that kind of help also? I mean UCLA should be #1 in the West, no doubt. They haven't lost two in a row recently have they? I think it was Jay just now who said he thinks UCLA is the best team in the country.

I guess our biggest problem is if UCLA does lose a game, which I think is very possible, considering how long it took them to wake up last Saturday.

I guess another big question is what would happen if UNC or Tennessee were to lose two games and we keep on winning? I would think we would move to a higher #1 seed at that point.
 
I think too much time is spent worrying about 1 vs 2 matchups here. The real advantage of a 1 seed is that the path to elite 8 is often significantly easier than a 2 seed. The first round is effectively a bye for 1 seeds, and the 2nd round won't be someone in the top 30. Finally, the 3rd round is against a 4 seed at worst, which translates to top a top 16 team, but is better than a 3 seed which could be a top 10 team.
 
Looking at the "elite" seeds, which pose the biggest concern? I'd say something like

1. UCLA
2. UNC
3. KU
4. Duke
5. Tennessee
6. Memphis


I know Memphis is crazy athletic, but I think we match up better with them than just about any of the other teams in contention for a #1 seed.
 
Kosher and Bob:

Totally in agreement on the Bruins. I'll be burnt orange and powder blue for the next two weeks. If UCLA wins out (reg season) they have to be a #1. Again, UK knocking off the Vols tomorrow puts Tenn in jeopardy. Park UNC or Duke in Charlotte as the #1, UCLA out west, then Texas and Memphis split Houston and Detroit. At that point the committee could go either way. And either way we have nothing to complain about.

hookem.gif
hookem.gif
hookem.gif
 
i'm not too up on how the committee decides seeding, but would it be fair to say that if they believe that they have more than 4 teams worthy of #1 seeds, then they try to give geographical advantage to those that they relegate to 2 seeds since they've given the advantage of being a 1 seed to the teams that are given that seed?

in the scenario we are envisioning right now, texas gets the benefit of being a 1 over ucla, so ucla gets the benefit of geopraphic proximity. that way they feel they are rewarding both teams for their excellent seasons in different ways. does that make sense?
 
UK isn't beating Tennessee without Patterson. You better look for Florida to pull the upset in Gainesville.

I've been saying for weeks that UCLA had to advance over both ACC schools or one ACC school and Tennessee for Texas to get a 1 seed in Houston.

The best shot of that happening might have just been thrown away by NC State today. Duke still has a regular season game against Virginia, who did beat Arizona earlier and played UNC to a single point in Charlottesville, so it's possible Duke could drop one. They haven't played well for three weeks.

I don't foresee UNC losing before they go to the Durham psycho ward. BC has lost 3 of its last 4 home conference games, and they are 3-9 against rpi top 70, 1-5 against rpi top 50. Fla. State will be more of a challenge, but that game will be played in Chapel Hill.

Go Cavaliers! Go Wahoos! Go Gators!

My dream is for Tennessee to lose to Florida AND early in the SEC tourney and get a low #2. They can still go to Charlotte against #1 UNC.

Memphis can take on a #2 Xavier or Georgetown in Detroit.

Texas can club somebody in Houston.

UCLA can have Phoenix, where all the UA and ASU fans can boo them mercilessly.

Everybody lambada.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict TEXAS-KENTUCKY *
Sat, Nov 23 • 2:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top